Posted on 11/01/2006 7:01:19 PM PST by RobFromGa
UPDATE 11/1 INCLUDING FREEPER INPUT
SIX DAYS AWAY FROM NOV 7, here's my updated opinions on the races. Things have moved towards the GOP in my opinion.
[Note: We have 48 GOP seats besides these 12 that are either not up for reelection or they are not close enough to be in play.]
The SENATE "CONTESTS" (Ranked most likely GOP to least)
VA- R seat- ALLEN vs. Webb (90%) Webb is toast
MO- R seat- TALENT vs. McCaskill (70%) Michael J Fox backfired
TN- R seat- Corker vs. Ford (60%) "Playboy" Ford is making stupid moves
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Keep 51 seat GOP control ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
(Note: need two of three for 50-50 Cheney majority, but this entails power-sharing in cmtes, etc)
MT- R seat- BURNS vs. Tester (55%) improving, Bush to visit next week
MD- D seat- Steele vs. Cardin (55%) improving, great ads
NJ- D seat- Kean vs. MENENDEZ (50%) steady, RINO v. crook- go with the RINO
PA- R seat- SANTORUM vs. Casey (50%) improving, Rick deserves win
^^^^^^^^^^^^ Needed to Maintain 55-45 GOP (status quo ratio) ^^^^^^^^^^^^
MI- D seat- Bouchard vs. STABENOW (50%) Bouchard surging!
RI- R seat- CHAFEE vs. Whitehouse (40%) lib v. lib- who cares?
OH- R seat- DEWINE vs. Brown (40%) I hope DeWine pulls it out, but it looks unlikely from here
WA- D seat- McGavick vs. CANTWELL (25%) hard to get traction
MN- D seat- Kennedy vs. Klobuchar* (25%) improving but way behind
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Attain 60 seat majority ^^^^^^^^^^^
SAFE GOP SEATS
AZ- (R= current seatholder)- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum GOP
SAFE DEM/INDEPENDENT SEATS
CA- (D=current status)- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman(I) or Lamont(D) safe
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- Akaka safe
MA- D- Kennedy safe
NE- D- Nelson safe (sorry FL Freepers- prove me wrong!)
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WI- D- Kohl safe
WV- D- Byrd safe
VT- Ind- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders-Soc safe
DEMS: 13 safe + 27 carryovers = 40 minimum DEM
I think we lose in RI, OH, MN, and WA. (-2: RI, OH)
Net +1 in the Senate. I will only make one more set of predictions on Monday night Nov 6th.
GOTV!
PA and MI won't be won by the GOP. We'll be lucky to win either NJ or MD; at this point the likely outcome is 52 seats in the Senate.
Man i hope your right. These polls make me think the U.S.A. has gone soft. I cannot believe some of these races!
You are being a bit optimistic, particularly with Sanstrom. Rick is gaining, but he is nowhere near a 50-50 shot. Unfortunately, he is probably a good 5 points back. I like the GOP chances at keeping the Senate, probably 51 seats GOP, 47 Dem, 2 Ind.
Your a really cheery soul...get a grip please..... the first vote hasn't even been counted and you have us losing several states.
You have your apology to FL FReepers next to the wrong Nelson.
"VA- R seat- ALLEN vs. Webb (90%) Webb is toast "
I wish I could shall your optimism. Allen must have seen something bad in the internals last week because beside this Roanoke college poll they all show Webb in the lead the lst couple of days it seems.
House races???
Who's the 2nd I? Jeffords is leaving.
Don't mean to undercut your thread, cause these threads are fantastic, and your work is awesome, but I'd invite to participate in this challenge... http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1730413/posts
I forgot Jeffords is done. OK 52/47/1
This has been a great week for the GOP here and we are gonna win that State Senate seat.
I give this as an example that we are surging at the finish line and we can win alot of these close House and Senate races if we continue to push hard to the very end.
Rob, I welcome and admire your continued optimism. My read is that we are stable or leading in TN, MO and VA (glad you believe Allen is in better shape than I do); we will lose PA, OH, and RI; carry MT in a squeaker; and win two of the following three in this likely order: MD, MI, and NJ.
Therefore, net -1 or 54-46. Which would be almost miraculous.
Don't shoot the messenger - I'm just being realistic. MD and NJ are deep blue states. Santorum will need a major gaffe by Casey to win, and MI has not been in play all season (rumor is that one recent poll has it tied). I'm simply looking at the facts in evidence and projecting the likely outcome.
"I think we win in VA, MO, TN, MT, MD, NJ, PA, and MI. (+3: MD, NJ, MI)
I think we lose in RI, OH, MN, and WA. (-2: RI, OH)
Net +1 in the Senate. I will only make one more set of predictions on Monday night Nov 6th.
GOTV!"
From your lips to God's ears, buddy. This would be a great result if we did it.
I would be thrilled to see the nemesis of the left, Santorum, be the comeback kid and defeat the emtpy suit incompetent Casey ....
Pray for victory!
Dear NittanyLion,
In Maryland, I believe that Mr. Steele has the momentum. Unless Mr. Cardin can do something to stop the hemmoraging in the next six days, I believe that it is more likely than not that Mr. Steele will win.
The endorsement from Mr. Curry and all five black members of the all-Democrat Prince George's County Council make it likely that Mr. Steele will be something close to competitive in Prince George's County. As well, with that critical endorsement, it seems difficult to believe that Mr. Steele will not get 25% of the black vote.
Finally, it appears that the black vote will be reduced as many blacks who refuse to vote Republican also are refusing to vote against a black man by voting for Mr. Cardin.
Still six days to go, but it's actually looking like Mr. Steele may pull this off.
sitetest
Don't write off Ohio. DeWine is gaining ground.
I think Byrd goes down in WV. Maybe a wild prediction, but you heard it first here.
electoral vote is run by a flaming liberal, but even he see's the GOP saving it's majority. I think a fantastic last week will carry us to +1 or +2!
I would love to see Bill Cosby come out and endorse Steele on Thursday. This would put him over the top and would do major damage to the dims across the nation.
Now that Kerry canceled all his trips not sure how safe Snowe could be now LOL
GOP wins two of three in the first tier: VA-MO-TN (I think you're a bit optimistic about the odds on some of these; Missouri in particular is notoriously difficult to pick)
GOP wins two of four in the second tier: MT-MD-NJ-PA (MD most likely, followed by MT or NJ)
GOP pulls off an upset in one of the races in the third group: MI-RI-OH-WA-MN (MI may be the most likely, since the economy in MI is in the toilet and this may fuel some anti-incumbent sentiment)
I haven't done the math to get the final tally here, but one observation I do have is this: If the Republican Party picks up a seat in NJ and loses seats in more than one of these four -- MT-VA-MO-TN -- then someone in the GOP ought to get a lot of sh!t.
I think that would be a net one seat loss for the GOP.
Your picks would give the GOP -2 for a 53 to 47 advantage.
-1 in first tier, even in second tier, -1 in the third tier for a net -2.
Based on what is Bouchard surging?
Re: polling
We should always work as if the polls are true but to tell you the truth they have been so wrong the last 4 years that I dont put much faith in them. I think a major factor is that it is more difficult to call people at home. Everyone has cell phones these days.
I wouldnt be surprised if the polling is manipulated to benefit the dems and to meet their quotas they just add phony results when they cannot find someone who will answer the phone.
2002 was suppose to be a bad year for republicans. The won big
You come here and post YOUR OPINION and then say 'don't shoot the messenger'?
You have to be kidding. You are not being 'realistic'. You are being defeatist and you are in the media bubble, paying attention to a bunch of seriously flawed polls. If you want to do that, fine, but don't expect anyone to buy that you're just a 'messenger'.
Rob, you Jumped the Shark! 56 Senate seats?
I could buy VA, MO, MT and the others are all longshots.
Where does this change come from?
We'll find out soon enough. I'm not going to argue with people that are hopelessly optimistic. If my analysis is proven wrong, I'll happily admit it in one week.
Yeah, because someone would be really worried about arguing with a person that would use that 'don't shoot the messenger' argument! :)
I respectfully remind you that you do not have the market cornered on awareness in this election. Your 'hopelessly optimistic' remark implies that someone who doesn't agree with you is being unrealistic.
We will know what happens in a week. Here's hoping that you are 'hopelessly wrong'. :)
Proof?
He's not predicting that, just listing the possibilities.
Zogby's got some good polling on DeWine. I know someone working for the Ohio ground effort there that says that internal polling is WAY better than the public polls. (Zogby excluded). The internal data has him down by 4-5 points, which they believe they can cover in a squeaker with our GOTV effort. This isn't to say that he's safe, but he's far from a goner.
just listing the possibilities???
But his message reads...............
I think we win in VA, MO, TN, MT, MD, NJ, PA, and MI. (+3: MD, NJ, MI)
I think we lose in RI, OH, MN, and WA. (-2: RI, OH)
Net +1 in the Senate. I will only make one more set of predictions on Monday night Nov 6th.
Lieberman is counted as an independent right now.
And you said he was predicting 56 seats, which he's not. :)
Actually, his prediction is pretty much dead on right from my calculations. Though I think we might squeak through and OH and lose NJ due to voter fraud. Result is the same: net +1
I've pretty much said Even to -2 all along, now I think we will win Michigan as well and that we will win the leaners that I thought we might lose.
My bad...you are correct. I apologize for my hasty, rather stupid, correction! :)
Joe Lieberman (I-CT)
Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
The only way we'll end up with one "independant" is
A) Lieberman stumbles badly and Lamont surges at the last minute or suddenly the "Lieberman is our buddy" useful idiots on our side wake up and conservatives and moderates OVERWHEMINGLY support Schlessinger (R) to give him 34% over the two socialists.
OR
B) Hell freezers over and "independant" Congressman Bernie Sanders (who's only "independant" because the Dem party is too "right-wing" for him) loses enough votes to the other commie candidates that Rich Tarrant (R) eeks in under the rader with less than 50% of the vote. Vermont has one Congressman at large so right now that commie is a lock to succeed Jeffords.
No problem.
We all type too fast!!!! LOL
that we will win the leaners that I thought we might lose.
I pray we have the victories you're predicting.
If I was as optomistic as you are I would sleep better.
My view is unchanged. We drop Santorum, DeWine and Chafee.
No gains.
52 47 1
What? You have nothing to apologize for and nobody to apologize to.
You merely botched the joke, intending to say "Ha ha, Bush is stupid, ha ha!" instead of "He's not predicting that, just listing the possibilities." An understandable slip of the tongue.
To Virginians, the name Byrd means Virginia. Run someone named Mickey Mouse Byrd...and he would win.
Chafee's loss is a victory for America and for the GOP. If he goes, we won't have to listen to his threats to jump over to the Dems. They've had that seat all along, just with a phony "R" occupying it.
Yeah! I'll apologize to noone!!!
--after I already apologized---
Dang it, I can never get anything right! lol
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