SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- November 2006 Update

self | November 1, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

UPDATE 11/1 INCLUDING FREEPER INPUT

SIX DAYS AWAY FROM NOV 7, here's my updated opinions on the races. Things have moved towards the GOP in my opinion.

[Note: We have 48 GOP seats besides these 12 that are either not up for reelection or they are not close enough to be in play.]

The SENATE "CONTESTS" (Ranked most likely GOP to least)

VA- R seat- ALLEN vs. Webb (90%) Webb is toast
MO- R seat- TALENT vs. McCaskill (70%) Michael J Fox backfired
TN- R seat- Corker vs. Ford (60%) "Playboy" Ford is making stupid moves
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Keep 51 seat GOP control ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
(Note: need two of three for 50-50 Cheney majority, but this entails power-sharing in cmtes, etc)

MT- R seat- BURNS vs. Tester (55%) improving, Bush to visit next week
MD- D seat- Steele vs. Cardin (55%) improving, great ads
NJ- D seat- Kean vs. MENENDEZ (50%) steady, RINO v. crook- go with the RINO
PA- R seat- SANTORUM vs. Casey (50%) improving, Rick deserves win
^^^^^^^^^^^^ Needed to Maintain 55-45 GOP (status quo ratio) ^^^^^^^^^^^^

MI- D seat- Bouchard vs. STABENOW (50%) Bouchard surging!
RI- R seat- CHAFEE vs. Whitehouse (40%) lib v. lib- who cares?
OH- R seat- DEWINE vs. Brown (40%) I hope DeWine pulls it out, but it looks unlikely from here
WA- D seat- McGavick vs. CANTWELL (25%) hard to get traction
MN- D seat- Kennedy vs. Klobuchar* (25%) improving but way behind
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Attain 60 seat majority ^^^^^^^^^^^

SAFE GOP SEATS

AZ- (R= current seatholder)- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum GOP

SAFE DEM/INDEPENDENT SEATS

CA- (D=current status)- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman(I) or Lamont(D) safe
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- Akaka safe
MA- D- Kennedy safe
NE- D- Nelson safe (sorry FL Freepers- prove me wrong!)
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WI- D- Kohl safe
WV- D- Byrd safe
VT- Ind- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders-Soc safe
DEMS: 13 safe + 27 carryovers = 40 minimum DEM

[Babsig]

I think Byrd goes down in WV. Maybe a wild prediction, but you heard it first here.

[Justice4Reds]

electoral vote is run by a flaming liberal, but even he see's the GOP saving it's majority. I think a fantastic last week will carry us to +1 or +2!

[appeal2]

I would love to see Bill Cosby come out and endorse Steele on Thursday. This would put him over the top and would do major damage to the dims across the nation.

[MaineVoter2002]

ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)

Now that Kerry canceled all his trips not sure how safe Snowe could be now LOL

[Alberta's Child]

Here's my prediction:

GOP wins two of three in the first tier: VA-MO-TN (I think you're a bit optimistic about the odds on some of these; Missouri in particular is notoriously difficult to pick)

GOP wins two of four in the second tier: MT-MD-NJ-PA (MD most likely, followed by MT or NJ)

GOP pulls off an upset in one of the races in the third group: MI-RI-OH-WA-MN (MI may be the most likely, since the economy in MI is in the toilet and this may fuel some anti-incumbent sentiment)

I haven't done the math to get the final tally here, but one observation I do have is this: If the Republican Party picks up a seat in NJ and loses seats in more than one of these four -- MT-VA-MO-TN -- then someone in the GOP ought to get a lot of sh!t.

[MaineVoter2002]

What? No October surpise?

www.cafenetamerica.com

[NittanyLion]

I think that would be a net one seat loss for the GOP.

[RobFromGa]

Your picks would give the GOP -2 for a 53 to 47 advantage.

-1 in first tier, even in second tier, -1 in the third tier for a net -2.

[Dolphy]

Based on what is Bouchard surging?

[MaineVoter2002]

Re: polling

We should always work as if the polls are true but to tell you the truth they have been so wrong the last 4 years that I dont put much faith in them. I think a major factor is that it is more difficult to call people at home. Everyone has cell phones these days.

I wouldnt be surprised if the polling is manipulated to benefit the dems and to meet their quotas they just add phony results when they cannot find someone who will answer the phone.

2002 was suppose to be a bad year for republicans. The won big

[perfect_rovian_storm]

You come here and post YOUR OPINION and then say 'don't shoot the messenger'?

You have to be kidding. You are not being 'realistic'. You are being defeatist and you are in the media bubble, paying attention to a bunch of seriously flawed polls. If you want to do that, fine, but don't expect anyone to buy that you're just a 'messenger'.

[ConservativeGreek]

Rob, you Jumped the Shark! 56 Senate seats?

I could buy VA, MO, MT and the others are all longshots.
Where does this change come from?

[NittanyLion]

We'll find out soon enough. I'm not going to argue with people that are hopelessly optimistic. If my analysis is proven wrong, I'll happily admit it in one week.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Yeah, because someone would be really worried about arguing with a person that would use that 'don't shoot the messenger' argument! :)

I respectfully remind you that you do not have the market cornered on awareness in this election. Your 'hopelessly optimistic' remark implies that someone who doesn't agree with you is being unrealistic.

We will know what happens in a week. Here's hoping that you are 'hopelessly wrong'. :)

[mcjordansc]

Proof?

[perfect_rovian_storm]

He's not predicting that, just listing the possibilities.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Zogby's got some good polling on DeWine. I know someone working for the Ohio ground effort there that says that internal polling is WAY better than the public polls. (Zogby excluded). The internal data has him down by 4-5 points, which they believe they can cover in a squeaker with our GOTV effort. This isn't to say that he's safe, but he's far from a goner.

[ConservativeGreek]

just listing the possibilities???

But his message reads...............

I think we win in VA, MO, TN, MT, MD, NJ, PA, and MI. (+3: MD, NJ, MI)
I think we lose in RI, OH, MN, and WA. (-2: RI, OH)

Net +1 in the Senate. I will only make one more set of predictions on Monday night Nov 6th.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Lieberman is counted as an independent right now.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

And you said he was predicting 56 seats, which he's not. :)

Actually, his prediction is pretty much dead on right from my calculations. Though I think we might squeak through and OH and lose NJ due to voter fraud. Result is the same: net +1