The ABC/Washington Post generic ballot preference moved eight points?

http://tks.nationalreview.com/ | 11/04/2006 | Jim Geraghty

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Generic numbers have been volatile all year; will we see any shift to Republicans this weekend? If we do, Obi thinks it could be significant. He sees an interesting glimmer in the Wall Street Journal’s pollsters noting that Americans are starting to give credit to Bush for good economic growth.

The ABC Washington Post poll generic ballot question, two weeks ago:

Dem Rep Other Neither Will not No cand. cand. (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.

10/22/06 LV 55 41 0 1 * 3 10/22/06 RV 54 41 * 1 * 3

The ABC Washington Post poll, today:

Dem Rep Other Neither Will not No cand. cand. (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 11/4/06 LV 51 45 1 1 * 2 11/4/06 RV 53 43 1 1 * 3

Are you kidding me? From 14 points to 6 points in two weeks among likely voters?

Now, I know the Newsweek generic ballot is at its worst:

In the Nov. 2-3 Newsweek poll, 53 percent of respondents said they would most like to see the Democrats win control of Congress, compared with 32 percent who wanted to see Republicans maintain control. The Oct. 26-27 poll showed that 50 percent of Americans said they'd like to see Democrats take control and 35 percent said Republicans should retain the majority.

The latest Newsweek poll was taken Nov. 2-3 (which would have been prime Kerry statment fallout). There was a three point shift away from Republicans at the one moment they won the news cycle? It's possible, I guess, but it strikes me as odd.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Pop quiz, hot shot: what's wrong with that first generic poll from 10/22/06? Anyone notice anything weird?

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Well, you'll have to go to the link to see it, but when you do, please let me know what the problem is you see with that 'likely' vs 'registered' number.

[Keith in Iowa]

They're practicing gluteus protectus. Don't want to have reality bite them in the tuchus on Tuesday. now it's in the margin of error, so no matter what happens, they're right.

[Jet Jaguar]

http://tks.nationalreview.com/

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Never mind on that...I'm wrong...just got my dyslexia going again and messed up numbers...lol

[TheLion]

Got that right! Been bogus polls all along!

[dc-zoo]

This can't possibly be true. The leftstream media said it was double digits, 13 to 15 points or more and pubbies chances were non-existant.

[bybybill]

Congrats, you are right,your prize is an all paid week end at the Jon Carry Comedy Club

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Yeah, I know...I kinda feel silly that I didn't bother voting because of that and Mark Foley being a page buggerer. Now, some pastor I never heard of is doing crank and banging some dude...oh the humanity! I don't know if I'll ever vote again! lol

[kesg]

You mean that Merle Haggard guy? I thought he was a C&W singer, not a pastor. I'm so confused. I refuse to vote GOP, dammit!

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Yeah, down with the GOP because someone's gay! Dammit! lol

[perfect_rovian_storm]

And down with C&W singers too! I won't vote for them either!

[Rockingham]

The key points here are that: (1) the numbers and public sentiment are probably still moving toward the GOP, with the clock running; and (2), that the GOP has produced gains before even when it was trailing on the generic ballot question.

[dc-zoo]

Yeah the only Haggard I know is Merle and I know the Okie from Muskogee ain't messin with no gays so I guess I still need to vote. lol

[goldstategop]

I think they overinflated the real numbers to discourage GOP turnout. That didn't happen so now they're publishing what they say are the *real* trend figures. I'd describe them as "fake but accurate." No one knows what voter turnout is going to be like on Tuesday. But the notion there is this Blue Wave out there waiting to bury the GOP is wishful thinking. The Drive Bys have been playing fast and loose with the polls that they should be taken with a grain of salt. That's why this observer believes they're still lying.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus

[advance_copy]

Here is the answer: The polls are crap.

[CyberAnt]

You have got to be kidding me ..?? You're not voting because some supposedly "Christian" guy fell off the pedastal ..??

If that's how easy it is to sidetrack you .. you must not have very deeply held beliefs.

I don't care what some crazy preacher does .. that does not affect one bit what I believe about America - nor does it ever make one dent in MY RELATIONSHIP WITH GOD. The repubs might not be perfect - but nobody is - but who in hell wants a bunch of lying, cheating, national security leaking democrats to be running the country.

Sheeeeeesh! I hope to hell you're joking.

[CyberAnt]

Well .. it's a funny thing about pollsters. Suddenly - when push comes to shove, the real numbers finally begin to show up. Maybe it's because they want to keep some credibility.

[MaineVoter2002]

Imagine the lengths the Democrats will go to in order to keep power once they’ve got it? Like the “Fairness Doctrine”, for example. Anybody think Pelosi and Reid wouldn’t try that tactic to hinder conservative talk radio? How about McCain-Feingold 2.0, with a particular focus on controlling “unregulated speech” on the Internet and blogs?

[Al Simmons]

I think the Internet is going to be like the "Third Rail" of future politics; It cannot be controlled - like a river, it will find its was to the ocean;

Anyone trying to dam it up, so to speak, will wind up getting swept away.

If the 'rats ever did try to 'regulate', ie. restrict free speech on the Internet, I think you would see a 'grass roots' uprising.

I don't think such restrictions could be sustained, technologically or politically. And I think that messing with it would be something like touching the "Third Rail" for whoever tried it.

Every day we get stronger, and they get weaker. And the tide ain't turnin' either.