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Campaign 2006: GOP on the rebound
Mcclatchy ^ | Nov. 5, 2006 | Steven Thomma

Posted on 11/05/2006 5:53:16 PM PST by GOPbarney6

Republican Senate candidates have bounced back in two largely overlooked states, strengthening their party's chance to retain control of the U.S. Senate in Tuesday's elections, according to an exclusive series of McClatchy Newspapers-MSNBC polls.

Twelve new state-by-state polls show a surprise shift in the political battleground to the north as Republican incumbents clawed their way back in two states frequently written off as lost to them -- Montana and Rhode Island.

In Montana, Republican Sen. Conrad Burns has fought back to a 47-47 percent tie with Democrat Jon Tester after trailing in all earlier polls.

(Excerpt) Read more at sacbee.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006elections; gop; thankyoujoncarry
The worm is turning for the GOP! The RATs are going to be crying Tuesday Night!
1 posted on 11/05/2006 5:53:17 PM PST by GOPbarney6
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To: GOPbarney6

2 posted on 11/05/2006 5:53:53 PM PST by Petronski (New York London Paris Munich Ev'rybody Talk About Mmmm Pop Music)
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To: GOPbarney6
The RATs are going to be crying Tuesday Night!

And filing lawsuits Wednesday morning.

3 posted on 11/05/2006 5:54:02 PM PST by Mr. Mojo
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To: GOPbarney6

one poll

I still wouldn't bet on these races, especially RI, where Bush has a 20% approval rating


4 posted on 11/05/2006 5:54:21 PM PST by ChurtleDawg (kill em all)
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To: Petronski

bttt


5 posted on 11/05/2006 6:09:11 PM PST by TomServo ("Uh, Donner, party of three please.")
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To: ChurtleDawg
I still wouldn't bet on these races, especially RI, where Bush has a 20% approval rating

But their Republican Governor has a 10 point lead which he has maintained all along.
6 posted on 11/05/2006 6:11:40 PM PST by msnimje (You simply cannot be Christian and Pro-Abortion.)
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To: GOPbarney6

Never thought I'd say this, but GO LINC!!!


7 posted on 11/05/2006 6:12:56 PM PST by Question Liberal Authority (If Not For George W Bush, Saddam Hussein Would Be In Charge Of Iraq Today AND He Would Have NUKES.)
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To: ChurtleDawg

Guess someone ought to explain to the Democrats pretending to be Conservatives, Bush is not on the ticket. According to Gallup only 36% of voters see this vote as a vote against Bush. So not even about 1/3 of the Democrat base buy this "it all about Bush" nonsense the Democrat Noise Machine is spewing forth.


8 posted on 11/05/2006 6:13:42 PM PST by MNJohnnie (The Democrat Party: Hard on Taxpayers, Soft on Terrorism!)
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To: Petronski
If Rove pulls this off, he will go down as the greatest political advisor! I believe that something is changing with the electorate. I have been depressed all this week, but now I see some hope! GOTV!
9 posted on 11/05/2006 6:15:08 PM PST by GOPbarney6 (GOP, Rove)
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To: Question Liberal Authority

Ditto!


10 posted on 11/05/2006 6:16:28 PM PST by GOPbarney6 (GOP)
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To: GOPbarney6

11 posted on 11/05/2006 6:18:09 PM PST by RandallFlagg (Roll your own cigarettes! You'll save $$$ and smoke less!(Magnetic bumper stickers-click my name)
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To: GOPbarney6

BTW, Welcome to FR.


12 posted on 11/05/2006 6:18:38 PM PST by RandallFlagg (Roll your own cigarettes! You'll save $$$ and smoke less!(Magnetic bumper stickers-click my name)
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To: GOPbarney6

The pollsters are getting an early start on CYA mode.


13 posted on 11/05/2006 6:19:56 PM PST by Carl LaFong (Give Turtle Bay back to the turtles.Oh...and watch out for snakes!)
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To: Mr. Mojo
The RATs are going to be crying Tuesday Night!

And filing lawsuits Wednesday morning.

The lawsuits are already written. The RATS will just fill in the blanks and file in the RATS State or on behalf of a fellow RAT!
14 posted on 11/05/2006 6:21:10 PM PST by paratrooper82 (82 Airborne 1/508th BN "fury from the sky" Kicking terrorist a-- and killing jihadist!)
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To: RandallFlagg

Thanks, here is one of the most accurate sites for election prediction. He hit the '04 right on!

http://electionprojection.com/

Enjoy All!


15 posted on 11/05/2006 6:23:18 PM PST by GOPbarney6 (GOP)
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To: GOPbarney6
The thing that did in the Democrats was Senator John Forbes Kerry's totally insane remark about our military, which promptly got an overwhelmingly negative response from the most likely group of voters. Even now, the Democrats have not completely doused out the PR grease fire that remark caused....
16 posted on 11/05/2006 6:25:59 PM PST by RayChuang88
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To: Petronski

17 posted on 11/05/2006 6:26:43 PM PST by big'ol_freeper (It looks like one of those days when one nuke is just not enough-- Lt. Col. Mitchell, SG-1)
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To: big'ol_freeper

Rove should insure his brain for about a trillion dollars!


18 posted on 11/05/2006 6:31:50 PM PST by GOPbarney6 (GOP)
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To: paratrooper82

So true!


19 posted on 11/05/2006 6:34:03 PM PST by GOPbarney6 (GOP)
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To: Petronski

For those championing Rove - what has he done during the last week to make things better for republicans?

This isn't political genius at work - it is folks starting to think about who they really want in office.


20 posted on 11/05/2006 6:37:02 PM PST by Mr Rogers (I'm agnostic on evolution, but sit ups are from Hell!)
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To: GOPbarney6

You must vote DONKEYCRAT on Tuesday!!!!!

21 posted on 11/05/2006 6:39:50 PM PST by Rome2000 (Peace is not an option)
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To: Mr Rogers

I respectively disagree, he is the director of this play! He has shifted the focus of the campaign, without his tactics and strategy we get clobbered! My humble opinion!


22 posted on 11/05/2006 6:40:05 PM PST by GOPbarney6 (GOP)
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To: GOPbarney6
This is all BS.

The numbers were never that good for the Dems.

They were cooked to dampen GOP voter enthusiasm.

This so-called "surge" is a return to the real numbers so that the pollsters can maintain some semblance of credibility for future elections.

We were never behind by that much and I predict we'll eek out a victory in both chambers.

GO GOP!!!
23 posted on 11/05/2006 6:40:20 PM PST by Yankee
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To: ChurtleDawg

10-29-06


24 posted on 11/05/2006 6:41:08 PM PST by Mamzelle
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To: Mr Rogers
First: Rove doesn't work in public, so how would anyone know what moves he makes.

Second: The RYMB phenomenon is in large part satire of the demonization of Rove by the left. He is their ultimate bogeyman, and since you missed the humor, I'll tell you: that's funny as hell.

Finally: If people are finally starting to think about who they really want in office, in spite of a tsunami of leftist drive-by media propaganda, honor is due to whomever is getting the counter-message delivered.

25 posted on 11/05/2006 6:42:15 PM PST by Petronski (New York London Paris Munich Ev'rybody Talk About Mmmm Pop Music)
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To: Yankee

Your singing to the Choir! Well guys I got to get ready for bed and listen to Drudge tonight! Should be a good one!

Go GOP, GOTV, Ditto and all the rest!


26 posted on 11/05/2006 6:42:53 PM PST by GOPbarney6 (GOP)
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To: GOPbarney6

If you wish. I believe it is the strength of our ideas, combined with the total lack of a plan on anything by our opponents, that is causing the unenthusiastic middle to start swinging Republican.

Two months out, anyone pissed off can say, "I'll vote for dems". But 2 days out, the mushy middle is focusing on what will happen if candidate R or D is elected - and they are trending candidate R!

And R is NOT for Rove.


27 posted on 11/05/2006 6:45:22 PM PST by Mr Rogers (I'm agnostic on evolution, but sit ups are from Hell!)
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To: Yankee

Your singing to the Choir! Well guys I got to get ready for bed and listen to Drudge tonight! Should be a good one!

Go GOP, GOTV, Ditto and all the rest!


28 posted on 11/05/2006 6:45:38 PM PST by GOPbarney6 (GOP)
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To: GOPbarney6
TANK U JON CARRY!@#$%^&*!
(Now shut up and go away, you filthy Frog.)

29 posted on 11/05/2006 6:45:51 PM PST by Prime Choice (VOTE RINO! There's plenty of room for more knives in your back.)
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To: Petronski

You may well be right about the satire. I'm not stupid, but I AM socially awkward...

But I married an understanding woman 20 years ago, and ended up with 3 decent kids, so sometimes it truly IS better to be lucky than good!


30 posted on 11/05/2006 6:47:31 PM PST by Mr Rogers (I'm agnostic on evolution, but sit ups are from Hell!)
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To: Mr Rogers

Understanding women are THE BEST. We're pretty lucky alright. And blessed.


31 posted on 11/05/2006 6:48:46 PM PST by Petronski (Why won't Diebold talk about RYMB.DLL?)
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To: RandallFlagg

Oh my god, is that a real screenshot?!?!

Did somebody hack their site after 2002?

If they did, that's the most amazing thing ever.


32 posted on 11/05/2006 6:48:47 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: Petronski
The youngest and the wife, on holiday...sometimes, even dorks win a round!
33 posted on 11/05/2006 6:49:52 PM PST by Mr Rogers (I'm agnostic on evolution, but sit ups are from Hell!)
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To: Mr Rogers

Awwww. That's great.

I'm a dork too, btw, so I appreciate the sentiment.


34 posted on 11/05/2006 6:51:15 PM PST by Petronski (Why won't Diebold talk about RYMB.DLL?)
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To: GOPbarney6

The Gallup poll is out; in two weeks, the Dem's advantage on the generic ballot has narrowed from 13 points to 7 points.

Highlights:

"Based on history, a 7-point lead among likely voters still suggest Democrats will take enough votes to win a majority of seats in the House," says Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll. What gives some analysts pause, however, is the sophisticated redistricting over the past decade that has made most congressional districts less competitive...

Pew Research Center survey released Sunday also showed that an 11-point edge for Democrats on the congressional ballot two weeks ago had narrowed to 4 points among likely voters. "It's gone from a slam-dunk for Democrats to take the House to a pretty good chance," says Andy Kohut, director of the center.

The survey of 1,362 likely voters, taken Thursday through Sunday, has a margin of error of 3 points.

The president and the war in Iraq remain at the center of this election: 36% of likely voters saying that are casting a ballot for a candidate to send a message that they oppose Bush; 20% to send a message that they support him.

What's shifted is the determination of Republicans to vote. The Democratic advantage among registered voters was 11 points, but Republican voters were more likely to be judged as sure to go to the polls, making the edge among likely voters smaller.

A month ago, the Democratic margin among registered and likely voters was identical.

It's not what Ken Mehlman would have liked to see in in the final Gallup poll, but it is a big shift in a two week period, and it suggests the GOP has the momentum. We will see whether that's enough to keep control of the House and Senate.

http://tks.nationalreview.com/


35 posted on 11/05/2006 6:51:27 PM PST by the Real fifi
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To: zbigreddogz

It sure is. I played hell finding it to save on my hard drive for future usage during election seasons.


36 posted on 11/05/2006 6:59:45 PM PST by RandallFlagg (Roll your own cigarettes! You'll save $$$ and smoke less!(Magnetic bumper stickers-click my name)
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To: Petronski

Petronski, LS says you keep pretty good tabs on him. How can I be notified when he posts?


37 posted on 11/05/2006 7:00:03 PM PST by chad_in_georgia
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To: chad_in_georgia; LS

He's been kind enough to provide me with pings at crucial moments.

And when I see him in the post queue, I always click. I so very much want him to be right.


38 posted on 11/05/2006 7:07:12 PM PST by Petronski (Why won't Diebold talk about RYMB.DLL?)
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To: ChurtleDawg

Well, for what it's worth, the Dems have shifted resources to R.I. and Montana. As well, Kos expressed concern.

If I had to wager a guess I say Montana is close, but the leanings of the state and Rep turnout pull it to Burns.

DeWine is still a bit behind. Depending on your POV, his chances of pulling this out a) depend on his last name or b) incumbancy.

Some analysts think the name is still a big draw. It's the main reason he won before. Me? I think if he pulls this out incumbancy is to credit.

I'm still pulling for him to lose.


39 posted on 11/05/2006 7:07:49 PM PST by Soul Seeker (Kobach: Amnesty is going from an illegal to a legal position, without imposing the original penalty.)
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To: GOPbarney6

If the Republicans manage to hold on to Congress, it will be a great victory. Over the past year, it seems they were doing everything possible to alienate their base--the Immigration Reform row was the poster child for Republican incompetence. If they hang on, they had better learn from their mistakes instead of 2 more years of complacency.


40 posted on 11/05/2006 7:17:13 PM PST by rbg81 (1)
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To: GOPbarney6

damn they are showing Speaker Pelosi....hope they are not accurate there


41 posted on 11/05/2006 7:19:28 PM PST by ConservativeDude
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To: GOPbarney6

"Rove should insure his brain for about a trillion dollars!"

how can that possibly be? As I recall, he didn't graduate from some fahncy Ivy school like a certain former presidential candidate, and, in fact, I think he dropped out and never graduated from college. (prolly why he still has a brain worth insuring)


42 posted on 11/05/2006 7:45:51 PM PST by EDINVA
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