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Will It Rain on the Democrats' Parade?
ABC News ^ | Nov 7, 2006 | MARCUS BARAM

Posted on 11/07/2006 2:59:53 PM PST by proud_yank

Nov. 7, 2006— Will it rain on the Democrats' parade?

Although most experts predict heavy voter turnout in today's midterm elections, some of the most hotly contested races in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and New Jersey could be affected by bad weather. And some experts say that, based on history, Republicans should pray for rain.

Brad Gomez, an assistant professor at the University of Georgia, examined weather data and its impact on elections in a study titled "The Effect of Bad Weather on Voter Turnout and Partisan Vote Share in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1948-2000."

Gomez concluded that when it rains, it pours at the polls for Democrats. Gomez found that "rain significantly reduces voter participation at the polls by a rate just under 1 percent per inch," and that every inch of rain cuts the Democratic vote by 2.5 percentage points.

As one example, election officials in Massachusetts recorded one of the lowest voter turnouts (64.7 percent) in recent history on a day in 1974 when rain poured down through the morning and afternoon.

But an exception to the weather theory is a nonpresidential election like today's: In the 1994 midterm elections, mild weather failed to dampen the prospects for Republican candidates, who swept both houses of Congress.

Here's a rundown of the weather forecast for some of today's most-heated races:

In Montana, where Democratic candidate Jon Tester is locked in a tight race with incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns, heavy rain is expected throughout most of the state.

In Ohio, the bellwether of recent elections, rain is expected in Cincinnati, Toledo and Cleveland, with more severe showers in the more rural southeastern part of the state.

In Pennsylvania, where Democrat Bob Casey is trying to unseat Republican incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum, showers are expected throughout the state this afternoon.

(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: democrats; elections; magnificentbastard; midterms; rain; rove; rymb
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Hopefully it pours!
1 posted on 11/07/2006 2:59:56 PM PST by proud_yank
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To: proud_yank

Excuses, excuses...

Next thing you know, someone will start with the "We didn't get our message out" crap.


2 posted on 11/07/2006 3:01:01 PM PST by Thrusher (?There?s nothing like the B-2 when it comes to giving peace a chance.")
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To: Lazamataz

PING!


3 posted on 11/07/2006 3:01:10 PM PST by Gordongekko909 (Mark 5:9)
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To: proud_yank

TRATs melt in the rain.


4 posted on 11/07/2006 3:01:40 PM PST by WorkingClassFilth (Ever learning . . .)
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To: proud_yank
That's probably just God pi$$ing on the ba$tards.
5 posted on 11/07/2006 3:01:54 PM PST by kinoxi
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Comment #6 Removed by Moderator

To: proud_yank

Blech. Underlying premise is that Republicans need extraordinary help.


7 posted on 11/07/2006 3:02:49 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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"6 out of 10 voting against President Bush.. "

He's running??


8 posted on 11/07/2006 3:03:46 PM PST by Bigh4u2 (Denial is the first requirement to be a liberal)
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To: proud_yank

MUWAAAHAAAAHAAAHAAAHAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

Ya gotta love the Rovian Weather Control Machine!


9 posted on 11/07/2006 3:04:29 PM PST by Redcloak (Speak softly and wear a loud shirt.)
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To: proud_yank
If the Dems lose they will make all kind of excuses, John Kerry, Rain(Karl Rove's weather machine) everything but their message.
10 posted on 11/07/2006 3:04:48 PM PST by Echo Talon
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To: proud_yank

I've been hearing that weather unfavorably affects Democratic turnout for years. That's why I'm a Republican. We have our limos to take us to the polls, you know. According to Nazi Pelosi, anyway. And she's sure going to take them away from us if she gets the chance.


11 posted on 11/07/2006 3:05:34 PM PST by Hardastarboard (Why isn't there an "NRA" for the rest of my rights?)
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To: proud_yank

Been raining in Georgia all day where the GOP has the chance of taking two House seats and a few statewide offices from the libs.


12 posted on 11/07/2006 3:05:38 PM PST by SittinYonder (Why has my tagline gone all haywire?)
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Comment #13 Removed by Moderator

To: proud_yank

"Republicans should pray for rain."

Why ?When water hits Democrats do they melt like the wicked witch ?


14 posted on 11/07/2006 3:06:01 PM PST by Renegade
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To: kinoxi

AMEN!


15 posted on 11/07/2006 3:06:07 PM PST by Bobbisox (ALL AMERICAN OLD FEMALE FREEPER!)
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To: proud_yank

Is THAT what happened to California???

It doesn't rain enough to keep them from mucking things up.


16 posted on 11/07/2006 3:06:14 PM PST by The Old Crone
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To: proud_yank
...but seriously.

It looks like it's dumping on their fool heads in places...

N.VA, MD, E.PA are getting it as I write this.

17 posted on 11/07/2006 3:09:17 PM PST by Redcloak (Speak softly and wear a loud shirt.)
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To: Echo Talon
Message? What message?

All I hear from them is static.

18 posted on 11/07/2006 3:09:27 PM PST by Paladin2 (Islam is the religion of violins, NOT peas.)
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To: proud_yank
A little election day music for Jon Carry and our dem friends.(click to listen;)
19 posted on 11/07/2006 3:11:15 PM PST by mdittmar (May God watch over those who serve,and have served, to keep us free.)
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To: proud_yank

Does anybody know the over/under for the number of lawsuits the Democrats will file throughout the U.S.?


20 posted on 11/07/2006 3:11:45 PM PST by Man50D (Fair Tax , you earn it , you keep it!)
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