Posted on 11/07/2006 10:15:35 PM PST by Congressman Billybob
That title is not a misprint. This is about the 2008 election in the 11th District of North Carolina.
First, the big picture now. The Democrats have taken control in the House, contrary to my prediction (I was nearly alone in that). The Democrats have gained in the Senate, but pending results yet to come after midnight EST, it looks like the Republicans will hold a vary narrow margin in the Senate.
In my own District, NC 11th, 16-year incumbent Republican, Charles Taylor, has been defeated by Heath Shuler, a neophyte Democrat who billed himself as “a conservative” and a representative of “Western Carolina values.” But, there’s often a wide gap between a candidate’s campaign words and his reality as an office holder when he actually wins election.
The very first action of Heath Shuler, immediately after he is sworn in come January, will be to vote for Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco as the new Speaker of the House. That will not be an auspicious beginning to upholding Western Carolina values.
More telling will be his pattern of voting on issues and bills that come before the House. I predict Shuler will vote at least 85% with Speaker Pelosi and the national unions which are the backbone of the Democrat Party nationally. Why do I say that?
Remember the fairy tale about the Pied Piper of Hamlin? Its moral was, “He who pays the piper, calls the tune.” And, who paid the piper in Shuler’s case? A glance at his official records with the Federal Election Commission show that he received $4,500 from Pelosi personally, and similar amounts from several other liberal Democrats in Congress, plus healthy contributions from all the major national unions excepting the National Education Association.
I’m estimating from my knowledge of Shuler that he lacks both the intelligence and the courage to buck the interests of those who paid the freight for his successful run. He almost has to be a follower rather than a leader, due to his lack of experience. He is such a neophyte that he’ll need staff help to find the executive washroom.
In short, in the next two years Shuler will demonstrate that he is not “a conservative” and that he does not remotely represent “Western Carolina values.” He will be ripe pickings for defeat in 2008 in this rural, conservative District in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
I expect that at least ten significant Republicans in this District will posture to be the nominee to take back this seat from the accidental Congressman, Heath Shuler. I expect that at least three of those will remain in the primary to the end. I expect that whoever wins the Republican primary will have a large leg up to defeat Shuler. And I expect to be that nominee.
Am I declaring as an official candidate right now? Not on your tintype. That triggers all sorts of who-struck-John with the FEC. Besides, I have to get out in the District and prove that I have the chops to run and win. It’s true that I have more years of experience working in, for and with local, state and federal government, than Heath Shuler has been alive. There are no secrets about either my background or my policy issues. For more than 40 years, I have been researching and writing on public issues, and those statements are out in public, in front of God and everyone.
I ran in the primary against Charles Taylor. I did a few things excellently, but many things poorly. If I repeat and build on the successes, and learn from and avoid the failures, I can be the Republican nominee and then the new Congressman from the 11th District of North Carolina.
I have reestablished an Exploratory Committee to run for Congress. I need help of all types, from all who want a better Congressman in this District than Heath Shuler. I expect that Shuler will be as much out of his league and over his head in Congress as he was in the NFL as a temporary quarterback for the Washington Redskins.
So, please sign up with me to help,... [Two sentences elimiated in line with JimRob's rules for FR.] I will have minimum expenses for office supplies, and for gas and oil, and occasional meals and stays at the Holiday Inn as I visit the far reaches of the District. (It’s huge – 14 counties and 2/3rds of a 15th county.)
I look forward to hearing from you. I’m counting on you. And you know from my decades of work in public issues, that you can count on me.
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About the Author: John Armor is a lawyer specializing in constitutional law, who may again be a candidate for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu
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John / Billybob
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus
Is there any hope for our Republic? Is this the beginning of the end?
Is there any hope for our Republic? Is this the beginning of the end?
We will have to really watch and see what occurs here.
Not any more than it was in 1992 or 1976...get a grip
Yeah, $crew the Christian Right, who needs them, and those right wing crazies that want to close the borders.
If it wasn't for us staunch Bush right or wrong supporters, it would have been much worse.
Pretty much what those of us that tried to warn the Freepers what would happen if the President didn't not close the borders and drop the amnesty plan. Along with a failure to prosecute(make total war) the war to completion.
Korea, Viet Nam, Gulf I, Gulf II, and a few other minor/lessor incursions in between.
It has been accelerated by Ben Franklin's prediction that the Republic could only survive until people came to believe they could "vote" themselves anything they wanted. Because the people have and the politicians have become a permanent class by promising all things to all people.
The good news is that many of us understand not to put our faith in "men" for we will always be let down.
Salvation comes to those who place their faith, properly, in the Lord. And no, I am not a Bible Thumper. But as I age and yes even mature, at times, that fact has become my only and greatest solace.
See my # 9.
I think God has allowed this night to happen. It is not the end....there is a purpose in all of this and we need to be open to receive the message. If the GOP is to be the party of light and inspiration we need a good soul searching and refocusing on the principles for which it is to be built upon. We need GOP leaders with spines and convictions...ready to fight and do what is right for the nation. Too many phoney leaders posing as conservatives. Not all but a lot were. Lets go foward with confidence to rebuild.
Not any more than it was in 1992 or 1976...get a grip
This is a different bunch from 1992 & 1976. Much more extreme. I've been called defeatest on this thread. I'm not. I'm just someone that's looking for answers and for some hope. There are some legitimate conservative dems that were voted in. Are they ALL crazy or will some have the guts to stand up to Pelosi/Hillary etc?
I agree. I too put my faith in the lord. With 2 daughters ages 12 & 9 and a stay at home wife I can't afford to panic them with the panic I'm feeling right now. Are there positives that we can take from this night?
I agree. I too put my faith in the lord. With 2 daughters ages 12 & 9 and a stay at home wife I can't afford to panic them with the panic I'm feeling right now. Are there positives that we can take from this night?
We survived four years of Jimmy Carter, we'll survive this.
I think God believes in free will.
We are still paying for Carter.
Paying, yes. But at least we did get 8 years of Reagan out of the deal.
The Dems are the stupid party...that never changes. They'll screw this up the way they always screw it up when they get to be in charge of things.
This District hasn't voted for a liberal Congressman for 20 years. That's exactly why Shuler had to pretend to be a conservative. That's exactly why I think the seat can be taken away from Shuler come 2008.
John / Billybob
When it comes right down to it, we, way out here in the Bleacher Seats, don't have much impact at all on what goes on in the city, state, nation, or world we live in. Devote your energy to being that principled man you are to those about you. You will have and impact and you will come to even further belief and faith that "all things work out for the best for those who place their faith in the Lord."
I have sat here most of the evening watching the returns and now gotten back onto FR and after a couple of negative posts was hit by the lightening bolt of acceptance that my sphere of influence is quite small and that my energies are best put to work living within that sphere.
And now I will be able to sleep well, in the knowledge that I have been and continue to be so blessed in this life and will be beyond.
Have a great day,
Greg Adams
Brownsville, TX (On the other Front Line)
Good luck with your race John.
It's not to early to start.
Some advice...
1. buy the website "fireheathshuler.com"
and blog on it. Let the 'opp research' be the blog and vice versa, to keep a record of all the screwups he engages in.
Gie visability to be the most out-in-front critic of him.
2. Lots of candidates try to buy primaries ... I saw it here in Texas, one poor millionaire blew $5 million on one. Ended up losing. Dick Armey's son spend $900,000 in one and didnt make the runoff. The guy who won that one, John Carter (TX-31) had good local record and roots and support.
Depending on the pockets it could cheap or not to win a GOP primary ... but the money wont be the key. Most primaries have about 20,000 voters or so (2008 will be higher with the Prez race), and after the first $200,000 spent on sending them mailers, you are just sending them extra paper for recycling. (TV is waste of money, but with the internet you can always try you-tube style TV ads sent by web). Early support from grassroots is the key differentiator that money cant buy; running a grassroots oriented campaign starting with the local conservative activists is the right way to go about doing it. If you get support of local precinct chairs and county chairs, etc. as well as local elected officials, you'll have the inside track.
"Is there any hope for our Republic?"
Yes.
" Is this the beginning of the end?"
No.
you still think the GOP can hold the Senate?
"I agree. I too put my faith in the lord. With 2 daughters ages 12 & 9 and a stay at home wife I can't afford to panic them with the panic I'm feeling right now. Are there positives that we can take from this night?"
Things change.
As bad as it looks now, in 1992 the Dems had the House, Senate and the Presidency. Then they blew it.
We've won several close elections in 2000, 2002, 2004... now in 2006 we lost *but in another close election*.
If Allen loses or wins, it will be by 10,000 votes, same in MO.
Also, many of our losses are elections we deserved to lose.
Burns in MT is losing because he was tainted by Abramoff, to a liberal kook. So it goes. If Taylor was not tainted, Heath Shuler woulndt be congressman elect ... but maybe Cong Billy bob will save the day in 2008.
Thank you! Actually, my panic has all but gone. There is hope for the 2008 election and some lessons learned from a bruised Republican party. Time for them to re-group.
In the meantime, gotta put on the positive spin with the wife and kids, pray more than ever and, as you said, be thankful that I have been so blessed in my life.
"This is a different bunch from 1992 & 1976. Much more extreme."
Yeah, but a lot of them ran as conservatives ... liars.
Get their votes on the record of the liberal things they want to do, and smoke them out.
If America wants all that *then* be defeatist, not before.
America was a lot worse off in 1974.
The House has to run for reelection in two years and that will keep alot of those Democrats who ran in conservative districts 'honest' if they want to stay in.
We have enough Senators to prevent cloture and we control the White House.
As I said before, the very thing that many Freepers complained about, Republicans not accomplishing enough, is what protects us from radical shifts in Gov't policy.
The Constitution makes us a Conservative nation by preventing no ruling Party total control.
The Number of Democrats in the House was higher throughout the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s and 1990s rught up until 1994, then it will be after this election.
We will see. I fear for our policies in Iraq. I fear for our tax cuts. I fear that the Democrats will do some horrible things in many areas that will make life miserable for our children.
But if patriotic Americans can stand together and defend what is right, against whoever happens to be in power ... I will never fear for our Republic.
GOD BLESS AMERICA.
Excellent post, I agree.
Ed
I fear for our policies in Iraq. I fear for our tax cuts. I fear that the Democrats will do some horrible things in many areas that will make life miserable for our children.
...I fear for our policies in Iraq the most! If we make some wrong moves in Iraq, no need for tax cuts, tax increases, taxex in general.
"We need GOP leaders with spines and convictions...ready to fight and do what is right for the nation. "
You're right.
Still, if there IS such a thing as the Rapture (which I don't believe) then...come quickly, Lord.
Ed
Patriotic Americans stood together, and look what we have--extremists have won both Houses.
Not true. Patriotic Americans either stayed home or voted for a "conservative demoncrat". Patriotic FREEPERS stood together. We often get caught up in our own little world here on FR and lose touch with reality. The reality is BIG MEDIA WON! For now. I believe that this bunch will mess things up so badly in the next 2 years that conservatives will come together in '08.
Sorry to say, it looks like we lost it.
If I lived in New York or L.A. or D.C. I might start building my bomb shelter immediately.
I bet they are cheering in Iran, Syria, North Korea and in the halls of the UN.
East Tenn CBB bump. Go John!!
Yes, I am sure they are, but Foreign Policy is still in Republican hands.
Also, it would seem that the Democrats did do some 'housecleaning' for us by removing some 'RHINO's' like Chafee.
Also, Liberman was suppose to be referendum on the war and he was elected as an Independent, going against his own Party.
So that asside there were not one but two groups that either sat out or crossed over in theri votes this election from the stats and data I have seen.
First I will say that the Christian right was not one of them. They did both times Bill Clinton was elected but not this time.
The first group that sat out this race is well represented here on FR and Mike Savage were -- Right winged republicans -- this is not meant as a slam but for two years we have heard 100 or more time on how they would not vote in this coming election -- and I assume that they did not vote -- there were a few elections that were within one to three percent that these peoples vote would have changed the outcome -- one place that comes tomind is in virginia -- but that would have not changed the night.
The second Group is what I will term North East liberalleaning evangelicals which encompassed according to relased numbers 30 of the total evangleical vote,voted for democrats These people arefirmly against the war -- and typically side with illegal immigrants. But they can be fickle in hopw they vote.
My feelings are we need to watch what occurs and work based on that.
The republcans as a whole in the last twoelection cycles tampered with grass roots efforts to replace several liberal candidates with conservative candidates
The most Liberal candidate Lincoln Chaffee was cut down which can not be viewed as a bad thing
We have now a year to sort things out -- it seems that a contract with american dealing with several issues including the borders and immigration are needed. After the first four or so years of the first contract -- the party lost its vision and became divided by a vacuum of strong leadership
One of the things that greatly affected this election was the loss of my mind is going blank here the speaker from texas we had before Bill Frist. His going down in scandalwas immensely damaging.
With no vision the people perish.
Tune in next week! Same Bat-time, same Bat-channel!
1. Failure to close the Mexican border and halt illegal immigration,2. Failure to nullify the effects of the Kelo decision--immediately, and
3. Expansion of federal entitlements to include prescription drugs!
I was waiting for you to post something when I saw Taylor lost.
I live in PA but I'll send a few bucks your way.
My R rep (Sherwood) also lost in an R district and I'm hoping the new D rep is a 1 term wonder. Incumbents can be awfully hard to unseat unless they screw up royally. How many seats did republicans lose this election because of corruption or personal immorality, or even too much ego to step aside for the good of the party?
Of course there is. Just look at Billybob, for one thing.
Rove keyed into voters who want security. The only problem is that once they felt safe from Osama, everything else they wanted was a RAT issue.
We are the people (not yet the party) who want to secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity.
Let's get busy.
Personally, all this makes me want to do is live the way the Lord wants me to. He's proven more than once that He can help me if I will listen to Him in the first place. First and foremost, my trust goes to Him.
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