Posted on 11/07/2006 10:15:35 PM PST by Congressman Billybob
That title is not a misprint. This is about the 2008 election in the 11th District of North Carolina.
First, the big picture now. The Democrats have taken control in the House, contrary to my prediction (I was nearly alone in that). The Democrats have gained in the Senate, but pending results yet to come after midnight EST, it looks like the Republicans will hold a vary narrow margin in the Senate.
In my own District, NC 11th, 16-year incumbent Republican, Charles Taylor, has been defeated by Heath Shuler, a neophyte Democrat who billed himself as “a conservative” and a representative of “Western Carolina values.” But, there’s often a wide gap between a candidate’s campaign words and his reality as an office holder when he actually wins election.
The very first action of Heath Shuler, immediately after he is sworn in come January, will be to vote for Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco as the new Speaker of the House. That will not be an auspicious beginning to upholding Western Carolina values.
More telling will be his pattern of voting on issues and bills that come before the House. I predict Shuler will vote at least 85% with Speaker Pelosi and the national unions which are the backbone of the Democrat Party nationally. Why do I say that?
Remember the fairy tale about the Pied Piper of Hamlin? Its moral was, “He who pays the piper, calls the tune.” And, who paid the piper in Shuler’s case? A glance at his official records with the Federal Election Commission show that he received $4,500 from Pelosi personally, and similar amounts from several other liberal Democrats in Congress, plus healthy contributions from all the major national unions excepting the National Education Association.
I’m estimating from my knowledge of Shuler that he lacks both the intelligence and the courage to buck the interests of those who paid the freight for his successful run. He almost has to be a follower rather than a leader, due to his lack of experience. He is such a neophyte that he’ll need staff help to find the executive washroom.
In short, in the next two years Shuler will demonstrate that he is not “a conservative” and that he does not remotely represent “Western Carolina values.” He will be ripe pickings for defeat in 2008 in this rural, conservative District in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
I expect that at least ten significant Republicans in this District will posture to be the nominee to take back this seat from the accidental Congressman, Heath Shuler. I expect that at least three of those will remain in the primary to the end. I expect that whoever wins the Republican primary will have a large leg up to defeat Shuler. And I expect to be that nominee.
Am I declaring as an official candidate right now? Not on your tintype. That triggers all sorts of who-struck-John with the FEC. Besides, I have to get out in the District and prove that I have the chops to run and win. It’s true that I have more years of experience working in, for and with local, state and federal government, than Heath Shuler has been alive. There are no secrets about either my background or my policy issues. For more than 40 years, I have been researching and writing on public issues, and those statements are out in public, in front of God and everyone.
I ran in the primary against Charles Taylor. I did a few things excellently, but many things poorly. If I repeat and build on the successes, and learn from and avoid the failures, I can be the Republican nominee and then the new Congressman from the 11th District of North Carolina.
I have reestablished an Exploratory Committee to run for Congress. I need help of all types, from all who want a better Congressman in this District than Heath Shuler. I expect that Shuler will be as much out of his league and over his head in Congress as he was in the NFL as a temporary quarterback for the Washington Redskins.
So, please sign up with me to help,... [Two sentences elimiated in line with JimRob's rules for FR.] I will have minimum expenses for office supplies, and for gas and oil, and occasional meals and stays at the Holiday Inn as I visit the far reaches of the District. (It’s huge – 14 counties and 2/3rds of a 15th county.)
I look forward to hearing from you. I’m counting on you. And you know from my decades of work in public issues, that you can count on me.
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About the Author: John Armor is a lawyer specializing in constitutional law, who may again be a candidate for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu
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John / Billybob
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus
Is there any hope for our Republic? Is this the beginning of the end?
Is there any hope for our Republic? Is this the beginning of the end?
We will have to really watch and see what occurs here.
Not any more than it was in 1992 or 1976...get a grip
Yeah, $crew the Christian Right, who needs them, and those right wing crazies that want to close the borders.
If it wasn't for us staunch Bush right or wrong supporters, it would have been much worse.
Pretty much what those of us that tried to warn the Freepers what would happen if the President didn't not close the borders and drop the amnesty plan. Along with a failure to prosecute(make total war) the war to completion.
Korea, Viet Nam, Gulf I, Gulf II, and a few other minor/lessor incursions in between.
It has been accelerated by Ben Franklin's prediction that the Republic could only survive until people came to believe they could "vote" themselves anything they wanted. Because the people have and the politicians have become a permanent class by promising all things to all people.
The good news is that many of us understand not to put our faith in "men" for we will always be let down.
Salvation comes to those who place their faith, properly, in the Lord. And no, I am not a Bible Thumper. But as I age and yes even mature, at times, that fact has become my only and greatest solace.
See my # 9.
I think God has allowed this night to happen. It is not the end....there is a purpose in all of this and we need to be open to receive the message. If the GOP is to be the party of light and inspiration we need a good soul searching and refocusing on the principles for which it is to be built upon. We need GOP leaders with spines and convictions...ready to fight and do what is right for the nation. Too many phoney leaders posing as conservatives. Not all but a lot were. Lets go foward with confidence to rebuild.
Not any more than it was in 1992 or 1976...get a grip
This is a different bunch from 1992 & 1976. Much more extreme. I've been called defeatest on this thread. I'm not. I'm just someone that's looking for answers and for some hope. There are some legitimate conservative dems that were voted in. Are they ALL crazy or will some have the guts to stand up to Pelosi/Hillary etc?
I agree. I too put my faith in the lord. With 2 daughters ages 12 & 9 and a stay at home wife I can't afford to panic them with the panic I'm feeling right now. Are there positives that we can take from this night?
I agree. I too put my faith in the lord. With 2 daughters ages 12 & 9 and a stay at home wife I can't afford to panic them with the panic I'm feeling right now. Are there positives that we can take from this night?
We survived four years of Jimmy Carter, we'll survive this.
I think God believes in free will.
We are still paying for Carter.
Paying, yes. But at least we did get 8 years of Reagan out of the deal.
The Dems are the stupid party...that never changes. They'll screw this up the way they always screw it up when they get to be in charge of things.
This District hasn't voted for a liberal Congressman for 20 years. That's exactly why Shuler had to pretend to be a conservative. That's exactly why I think the seat can be taken away from Shuler come 2008.
John / Billybob
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