Retaking the US Senate in 2008

11-9-2006 | self

[staytrue]

All we have to do to retake the senate is to win 2 of these 12 seats.

Arkansas: Pryor (D) Delaware: Biden (D) Illinois: Durbin (D) Iowa: Harkin (D) Louisiana: Landrieu (D) Massachusetts: Kerry (D) Michigan: Levin (D) Montana: Baucus (D) New Jersey: Lautenberg (D) Rhode Island: Reed (D) South Dakota: Johnson (D) West Virginia: Rockefeller (D)

It looks like we could have a shot at Pryor, Harkin, Baucus, and Johnson.

AND THEN ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS HOLD ALL 21 OF OUR OWN SEATS THAT ARE UP.

[1035rep]

Have a goodnight I'm signing off.

[Alter Kaker]

GOP Incumbents up in 2008:

Wayne Allard - CO (very vulnerable)
Susan Collins - ME (likely safe)
Thad Cochran - MS (likely safe)
Elizabeth Dole - NC (possibly vulnerable)
Pete Domenici - NM (potential open seat, vulnerable)
Chuck Hagel - NE (likely safe)
James Inhome - OK (GOP advantage)
Pat Roberts - KA (vulnerable, if Dems recruit Sebelius)
Ted Stevens - AK (safe, as long as he lives)
John Warner - VA (very vulnerable, Mark Warner will run)
Lamar Alexander - TN (potentially vulnerable)
Saxby Chambliss - GA (likely safe)
Norm Colemans - MN (very vulnerable)
John Cornyn - TX (likely safe)
Lindsey Graham - SC (safe Republican)
Mitch McConnell - KY (GOP advantage)
Jeff Sessions - AL (likely safe)
Gordon Smith - OR (vulnerable -- it's Oregon)
John Sununu -- NH (very vulnerable -- NH trending badly)
Mike Enzi -- WY (likely safe)

Two years is an eternity in politics, and the climate will likely be totally different. But even if we take back the House and keep the Presidency, it'll be very hard to avoid losing additional seats in the Senate -- we're playing defense in too many places, especially if the Dems do good recruiting.

[Azzurri]

Senator Levin in Michigan is probably going to retire after the current term. Michigan has become a solid Blue state in the last 10 years so even a pickup here with no incumbent is unlikely.

[Azzurri]

John Sununu -- NH (very vulnerable -- NH trending badly)

Man, what has happened to NH, that used to be a solid Republican state and now it's just Massachusetts Lite.

[Laffalot]

Bobby Jindal is a very strong candidate to unseat Landrieu. The only reason Landrieu defeated him was because of the New Orleans vote. Bobby Jindal was winning until the NO votes started coming in. Jindal retained his seat this election and I would suspect that says a lot for Jindal considering this anti-republican mood of the voters. Landrieu and Nagin used the buses (that were forgotten about during Katrina's onslaught) to haul people to the poles for the purpose of voting for Landrieu. These were the same people they didn't even consider moving when Katrina reared her ugly head in the Gulf. I think with the NO voters spread all over the country now, maybe we could have a real (sarcasm) senatorial election for once.

[Alter Kaker]

All of New England is gone. If Courtney wins in Connecticut 02 (he's ahead, pending a recount), Chris Shays will be the only "Republican" Congressman left in all of New England. Of course Shays makes Lincoln Chafee look like Tom Coburn, so "Republican" doesn't mean much. Sununu is in deep trouble unless the climate changes fast.

[California Patriot]

Presidents don't have coattails. There have been no presidential coattails to speak of since Reagan in '80. Even in the most conservative states, we can't beat a Rat incumbent unless we can find an outstanding candidate. And a candidate without high preexisting name recognition probably isn't an outstanding candidate. The chances of winning a net of 2 Senate seats in '08 isn't great. We can do it, but it won't be easy, especially with Warner probably retiring.

[California Patriot]

Good point, unfortunately. Sununu barely won in 2002 -- after representing half of the state in Congress, and with high approval ratings for W. Republicans did terribly in NH this year, losing both their congressmen AND both houses of the state legislature -- literally dozens of seats in the House.

[Uriah_lost]

I've been referring to them in the aggregate as "Absolutists"

[weegee]

File ethics charges against the lot of them.

[CWOJackson]

A cleverly disciptive title...and far kinder then I would give them.

[California Patriot]

Right. We should be making every effort to destroy the reputation of every freshman Rat representative ASAP. We should bombard their districts with attacks -- this is how the Rats softened up many of our people in '95-'96.

[weegee]

The Katrinacans in Houston went to Louisiana to vote and then came right back here.

[weegee]

Go after the long established and long corrupt Rats too. Ethics charges are the way to go.

[youthgonewild]

I seriously doubt Republicans will take it back in '08. The terrain leans to the Democrats too much. John Warner will probably retire in VA, Pete Domenici in NM, and Wayne Allard in CO. All three of those could flip. New Hampshire, Oregon and Minnesota could flip just as easily. Here's my take on the Dem seats:

Arkansas: Pryor (D) probably won't lose
Delaware: Biden (D) if he retires to run for president, Mike Castle could pop in, otherwise not.
Illinois: Durbin (D) nope
Iowa: Harkin (D) only if he retires, probably not even then
Louisiana: Landrieu (D) very solid chance with a good candidate
Massachusetts: Kerry (D) yea right, Kerry will retire and Senator Frank can't be stopped
Michigan: Levin (D) He will probably retire, but it leans Dem
Montana: Baucus (D) doubtful, hes entrenched
New Jersey: Lautenberg (D) he may or may not retire, but Republicans will never win here
Rhode Island: Reed (D) hell no
South Dakota: Johnson (D) maybe with Mike Rounds, but Johnson is very popular
West Virginia: Rockefeller (D) better than even chance if he retires, none if he doesn't

[Razz Barry]

Now that I've thought about it, letting the Rats have these wins was a good plan. They'll screw things up so bad in two years and it'll keep Clinton/Osamaboma from the White house and we'll win back sets + some. ROVE IS BRILLIANT!

[Laffalot]

Oops, yes it was Jenkins against Blanco. But I still say Bobby Jindal would be a great conservative opponent to unseat Landrieu.

[trumandogz]

Unless, we catch Harry Reid with a live male Senate Page I am afraid the GOP will lose another 4-5 seats in the Senate.

Of the ones you mention the "Dead Men Walking" are:

Wayne Allard (Will Ken Salazar's brother run for the seat?)

John Warner (He is hated by the right and left)

John Sununu (That phone jamming gag will due him in)

Lamar Alexander (If Ford runs)

[trumandogz]

As for West Virginia , I heard a rumor that the state passed an Amendment to Clone Robert Bird and put it in the Senate for the next 60 years.

[Alter Kaker]

My guess is that John Warner retires. I don't think anybody can beat Mark Warner in Virginia right now -- why would John Warner want to subject himself to that kind of race? Tom Davis would at least make it competitive, and, without his committee chairmanship, he has every reason to run. But I don't think he can beat Warner, at least not in the current climate.