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Super analysis.

It is good idea to take stock of things after a sound "thumping".

What happened on Tuesday should be thought of as a Democratic "mini-wave". It was not an election that signifies realignment but it does reveal serious fissures in the Center-Right coalition.

The main driver of failure on Tuesday was Political Mismanagement. Unfortunately I am beginning to see discomfiting parallels between Bush II and Clinton with regard to party building issues. I believe that President has shown great leadership in War on Terror and his critics have acted treasonous hypocrites and intellectually dishonest ciphers but on the Domestic Policy side the President has badly fractured his own coalition.

The leitmotif that runs throughout the political failures ably chronicled in these threads is a lack of idealogical unity within the Governing coalition. I have been shocked at some of the insulting and incendiary rhetoric directed against Religious Conservatives by Libertarians and other Secular Conservatives. This situation is analogous to Organized Labor going after Environmentalists as being eco-fascist nuts (which they are, of course). They might think something like this but Coalition Discipline should forbid ever saying anything like that in public. It is undisciplined and stupid to do something like that. How do we expect the voting public to react to such infighting in our coalition before an election?

I relate the drift of the Conservative Movement as starting with Newt Gingrich's retirement from politics. Since Newt left the scene the Conservative Movement has lacked a charismatic spokesman with a positive vision and agenda. A Political Movement needs both a Positive and a Negative Program. The Republican's program in this cycle was almost entirely negative and it lost badly.

An agenda for reviving the movement should include the following items:

*Party Discipline:

Weak candidates should be ruthlessly pruned
and stronger candidates should be put forward.
Numerous House races and the Florida and Montana
Senate races illustrate the importance of this
item.

*The "Vision" thing:

A positive program consisting of specific
Legislative accomplishments should be put
forward every election cycle. The Contract
With America is the perfect template for this
item.

*Coalition Discipline:

Libertarians need to decide if they want to
spend their political capital on noble, losing
efforts getting 3% of the vote.

If they want a more substantive role they should
run some their candidates in Republican
Primaries. Religious Conservatives should seek
to focus on achievable goals within a
Congressional Session rather than looking toward
more sweeping changes. The Culture War will not
be won politically. Incremenatlism is the way to
go.

*Winning by Losing:

Taking Legislative risks pays off in the long
run. This Congress was both timid and
incompetent. Social Security Reform should have
been put to a vote even if it lost. The ground
would have been softened by a losing
effort.

*Recognize the reality of the "Press Party":

The MSM has become a subsidiary unit of the
Democrats. This needs to be recognized and
managed with a consistently applied counter-
strategy. This reality will not change any
time in the near future.

I estimate that MSM cost the GOP at least
one Senate seat and 5 - 10 House Seats in
this cycle.

I hope the GOP takes up some or all of these issues. For now it is important to play good defense to prevent the Democrats from implementing any of the disastrous policy ideas.

The good news is that the Democratic idea bank is empty. When the public realizes this there will be a new opportunity to move the Center-Right coalition forward into a permanent leadership position again.

I reluctantly have to agree with you about President Bush's lack of party-building, although I think the disconnect between different wings of the party is almost nowinsurmountable by any leadership from the White House.

I do think there is a failure within the party to understand the other side's necessity. Moderate's DO look down on social conservatives as trouble-makers and fanatics; conservatives DO look at moderates as too liberal to be in the party (look at all of the glee on this forum for Lincoln Chaffee's defeat). I do think that both wings need to get together and decide what issues they can agree on and push those. We all can surely agree on making the tax cuts permanent. There must be other issues as well.

Also, I would like the President to explain his position on the border; not with platitudes, but with honest reasons and facts, complete with pictures and charts. This is one of the most divisive issues in our party, and I don't feel that he has made enough of an effort to make his case.

Thank you for your comments.