Posted on 11/17/2006 11:13:00 AM PST by Miss Marple
The disappointing results of the recent election have led to a lot of discussion about WHY this happened. In the search for the grand unifying theory of why we lost, there seems to be an inordinate amount of bitterness and recrimination.
The problem is that we all are looking at this through the perspective of our own beliefs. Conservatives look at the loss of Chaffee and Northrup and think "If only we had had a real conservative in those seats." Moderates point to the loss of Hayworth and Santorum and caution about moving too far to the right. Some blacks look at the losses of Ford, Blackwell, and Steele and think it's all about race. People like me opine that the Congress would have won if they had stuck with the President. Others think that we would have won if we had completely disassociated ourselves from President Bush.
The fact is, this election wasn't about ideology at all. We were outflanked by a very good strategy crafted by Rahm Emmanuel, who has proven to be a formidable foe.
First of all, the democrats made really amazing use of the scandals, many of which they orchestrated to be revealed at the most damaging time. Foley, Delay, Weldon...those stories were not coincidental. Judicious use of timing and legal tactics kept us from effectively defending those seats.
In addition, instead of waiting until this year, Emmanuel began recruiting people almost two years ago. He used a very interesting strategy...looking at what would appeal to voters in each individual district and state, rather than looking at a national message. The oft-seen "Rove, you magnificent bastard" graphics here on FR were more prescient than intended. In the movie "Patton", the phrase was "Rommel, you magnificent bastard, I read your book."
That is exactly what happened. Emmanuel "read Rove's book" and took a page from it.
Candidates were chosen to fit certain constituencies. Webb, for example, IS a bona fide war hero and he went up against George Allen, who didn't serve in the military. That drew enough votes from those military people in Hampton Roads and other military enclaves to put Webb over the top. The macaca flap was just icing on the cake.
J.D. Hayworth is also very conservative, and had made strict immigration enforcement one of his issues. What did they do? They ran someone who was also strict on immigration, but supported the President's plan somewhat. So, the democrat got the Hispanic vote plus a bit of the anti-immigration vote.
In Indiana, Hostettler and Sodrel were attacked by the democrats over Daylight Savings Time and the sale of the Indiana Toll Road, two issues which are very hot buttons here but have NOTHING to do with the federal government.
This is how the democrats won. They looked at each area and chose the issues which would get them enough crossover voters to get them over the top. While their national office holders and the liberal pundits were saying that this election was a referendum on Iraq, their local candidates were running on almost anything BUT that, at least in the swing areas.
I have to conclude that we just lost because the democrats did a better job. When your desire is purely to seize power (which is, after all, what a great many of them are about) then you aren't hampered by ideology. That's why they could run Jim Webb and other veterans while speaking in Washington about defunding the military. They simply discovered what would sell, and used it to get people elected in the democrat column.
Now, we can all post for the next ten years about which way would have been the best philosophy (moderate or conservative) but the fact is that this election really had nothing to do with either. It had to do with who was willing to do the most to regain or keep power, and the democrats won.
IF we had had a cohesive national message, if we had not been divided on issues since Katrina,if we had not had some really embarassing scandals, we might have been able to overcome this. However, with pundits assailing the President, Congressional Republicans split over immigration and earmarks, and the President only hiring Tony Snow late in the game to put out an improved PR effort, we simply couldn't overcome it.
Rove is an excellent political strategist, but no matter how good someone is, there one day arrives someone better, and right now this person is Rahm Emmanuel.
If I had a say in what goes on I would suggest the following:
1. No dissension within the party should be aired on national media. Anyone who does this would be stripped of committee assignments and campaign cash. Disagreements belong on the floor of the Congress and in votes and in letters to constituents. We do not owe Chris Matthews air time to help divide the party.
2. President Bush is the president for two more years. The media has done a number on him and does NOT need our help in attacking the president. Anyone who calls him too liberal, too conservative, too wishy-washy, failed, traitor, etc. is doing nothing but further depressing his approval ratings. It won't be easy for the 2008 candidate, whoever he may be, to run following a "despised" president, and all you have to think about is Hubert Humphrey following Lyndon Johnson. Keep your opinions to yourself for the sake of whoever runs in 2008.
3. Congressmen and Senators should start paying attention to LOCAL issues that could be used against them. Staffers should be monitoring the local papers and media. After seeing how Sodrel and Hostettler were sandbagged by this stuff, I am not so sure we can win much in 2008, especially since Governor Daniels will be at the head of the state ticket.
4. Finally, realize that a huge number of voters don't vote based on philosophy of government. They vote on who will protect their jobs, who seems like a nice guy, who has done stuff they can identify with, who has good hair, etc. They don't give a flying hoot about "limited government" or "social justice." If you talk to them about inside baseball stuff like whether Pence or Boehner should be minority leader, their eyes glaze over and they start edging away from you, figuring you are a whack-job. However, their votes count just as much as Rush Limbaugh's, mine, or yours. We had better understand them rather than patronizing them or ignoring them.
We have to lose our complacency that our message is self-evident, and that the public trusts only Republicans with national security. It is obvious that the public is easily misled and confused.
At any rate, this is my take on what happened.
Hey MM:
This is as close as possible to my feelings about what happened. Where there was a PRO CHOICE Pubbie the Rats ran a PRO LIFE one. If a Pubbie voted against guns, the Rats ran a pro gun rat, ect.
It happened time and time again throughout the country.
Bookmark for when I have more time to thoughtfully consider...
" I changed my tune after I heard Tony Snow saying that the WH considered it good news that they would have a new Congress to work with on immigration and then that was followed the next day by the President jumping with both feet on immigration and minimum wage."
I was stunned by both the President and Snow saying it was good news to have a pack of rats to work with on immigration. Has anyone figured out a way to spin those remarks in a positive way?? It was a horrible thing to hear right after the GOP loss of both houses. ;( :(
I think Boehner is going to be just fine.
Since Pence hired Chris Wilson as his consultant, I am not surprised he lost by so much. If anyone could turn a person off not to vote for Pence, it would be Wilson who was a consultant to Istook's campaign for OK Governor and Romney's campaign as a consultant. He made a lot of people mad here in OK with the way he ran things. IMO, Wilson is one of the dirtiest consultants I know when it comes to campaign as he will stoop as low as he can in order to win. This year he is now 0-7 as Oklahomans caught on to his dirty campaign tactics and phoney polls. He is a Republican but runs a campaign like a Democrat. He also hired a consultant to improve his image, but no way anyone connected to a campaign that went up against Wilson is going to forget him and his tactics.
Worst run campaigns I have ever witnessed were here in OK in our statewide races. Istook couldn't even hold the 5th district.
Here they used scare tactics of Kerry, Hillary, Teddy, and Howard Dean and we didn't have a Senate race.
Freepers would be shocked to see this GOTV door hangar that OK GOP came up with. I finally took my phone off message and hooked it up to the fax machine because of complaints by Republicans. Filled up my messages after they hit the doors in this county. Never going to hold a county party office again. I prefer to freelance and work for a campaign I like. :)
Pres Bush and his Dad's cozying up to Clinton has caused problems here in OK where the Clintons are hated. They want the Clintons ignored because when Bill and Hillary speak out a lot, our candidates do better here in OK in raising money, etc. With both Bush's cozying up to the Clintons, the Dims played it including the Democrat Governor in this election. They used it for their own credibility.
I mean in the realization that the conservatives HAVE to win. The Dumbocrats do NOT put the good of this country first...being in power is number 1 for them.
If the shoe was on the other foot, does the Bush family REALLY think they'd be hanging out with the Clintons? Of course not, they'd be demonized every chance Bill and Hill got.
Whatever the reason it is not playing well here in Oklahoma -- not even a little. That latest picture of Pres Bush with Clinton at MLK memorial ground breaking was over the top.
McLame can't help himself. RINOs never listen.
You also failed to blame Bush, domestically he is weak. No veto, no bully pulpit.
It's time to clean out the leadership ... all of it.
Exactly! Look how much they have trashed Bush #43 even now with all this cozying up. I find it very irritating and in some ways giving credibility to Ms. Clinton. Actually I find it more than irritating, I find it disgusting!
a free infomercial for Democrats is what the MSM has become
Scare tactics like that simply turn people off, if not making them outright mad. I remember you posting about those door-hangers, and I agree. We need a positive message to get those swing voters; they are insulted by scare ads.
I do think there is a failure within the party to understand the other side's necessity. Moderate's DO look down on social conservatives as trouble-makers and fanatics; conservatives DO look at moderates as too liberal to be in the party (look at all of the glee on this forum for Lincoln Chaffee's defeat). I do think that both wings need to get together and decide what issues they can agree on and push those. We all can surely agree on making the tax cuts permanent. There must be other issues as well.
Also, I would like the President to explain his position on the border; not with platitudes, but with honest reasons and facts, complete with pictures and charts. This is one of the most divisive issues in our party, and I don't feel that he has made enough of an effort to make his case.
Thank you for your comments.
The Bush haters on both sides have elected the government they have dreamed of!
That is the same suicidal idealogue that gave us the 8 years of the Clintoons.
To do that, he would have oppened himself to compromise. A lot of misery could have been avoided if he'd done just that...opened himself to compromise. But he'd have had to have listened to some criticism and some very upset Republicans. It was just easier to mouth talking-points and play "talk to the hand."
There are a lot of his very loyal supporters who wanted to show him the state of their schools and communties, the destabilization and dislocation that a flood of strangers who are not Americans is causing. Things like watching a school budget shift from math, English lit, science--to English as a Second Language. Getting your car wrecked by a willing driver who flees the scene. Having to employ translators instead of nurses at the local hospitals. Just having the nature of your home town changed overnight, being run by a scarey little godfather at the Iglesia Evangelista.
These are all reasonable concerns which were treated as unreasonable, and when the concerns persisted, the cruel playing of the race card.
And Bush failed to understand when he claimed that the problem was impossible to address without massive, million-amnesties policies--he was destroying any faith people had in him on Iraq. If he can't deal with Mexico in America' interst, he sure can't bring democracy and freedom to Iraq in our interest.
He knocked the props out from under the WOT.
There is a revolt going on here about the leadership of our State Party in this election. Have been invited to attend a meeting in OKC. Looks like I wasn't the only one disgusted with the door hangar and other things.
Did an informal survey after I started getting nasty calls about the door hangar. Called 50 houses, talked to 37 people, and it was unanimous that they detested the door hangar and 22 of these lifelong Republicans had decided to vote for the Democrats in our County Court House and state House races. When I asked where they would place themselves in the Party, conservative, moderate, or liberal, the answers were mostly moderate in the area I called. Even the few conservatives were mad at a GOTV effort was all negative.
The my way or no way crowd need to get a clue that we need everyone to vote because Republicans in most states are outnumbered in registration and we have to reach out to moderates and liberal Republicans. The Republican Party was here a long time before they even thought of getting involved and now they want it their way or they threaten not to vote. Frankly I am tired of those one issue types. We need a coalition or we are going to lose the White House in 2008.
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