The Real Meaning of This Election (Vanity)

November 17, 2006 | Miss Marple

[Miss Marple]

The disappointing results of the recent election have led to a lot of discussion about WHY this happened. In the search for the grand unifying theory of why we lost, there seems to be an inordinate amount of bitterness and recrimination.

The problem is that we all are looking at this through the perspective of our own beliefs. Conservatives look at the loss of Chaffee and Northrup and think "If only we had had a real conservative in those seats." Moderates point to the loss of Hayworth and Santorum and caution about moving too far to the right. Some blacks look at the losses of Ford, Blackwell, and Steele and think it's all about race. People like me opine that the Congress would have won if they had stuck with the President. Others think that we would have won if we had completely disassociated ourselves from President Bush.

The fact is, this election wasn't about ideology at all. We were outflanked by a very good strategy crafted by Rahm Emmanuel, who has proven to be a formidable foe.

First of all, the democrats made really amazing use of the scandals, many of which they orchestrated to be revealed at the most damaging time. Foley, Delay, Weldon...those stories were not coincidental. Judicious use of timing and legal tactics kept us from effectively defending those seats.

In addition, instead of waiting until this year, Emmanuel began recruiting people almost two years ago. He used a very interesting strategy...looking at what would appeal to voters in each individual district and state, rather than looking at a national message. The oft-seen "Rove, you magnificent bastard" graphics here on FR were more prescient than intended. In the movie "Patton", the phrase was "Rommel, you magnificent bastard, I read your book."

That is exactly what happened. Emmanuel "read Rove's book" and took a page from it.

Candidates were chosen to fit certain constituencies. Webb, for example, IS a bona fide war hero and he went up against George Allen, who didn't serve in the military. That drew enough votes from those military people in Hampton Roads and other military enclaves to put Webb over the top. The macaca flap was just icing on the cake.

J.D. Hayworth is also very conservative, and had made strict immigration enforcement one of his issues. What did they do? They ran someone who was also strict on immigration, but supported the President's plan somewhat. So, the democrat got the Hispanic vote plus a bit of the anti-immigration vote.

In Indiana, Hostettler and Sodrel were attacked by the democrats over Daylight Savings Time and the sale of the Indiana Toll Road, two issues which are very hot buttons here but have NOTHING to do with the federal government.

This is how the democrats won. They looked at each area and chose the issues which would get them enough crossover voters to get them over the top. While their national office holders and the liberal pundits were saying that this election was a referendum on Iraq, their local candidates were running on almost anything BUT that, at least in the swing areas.

I have to conclude that we just lost because the democrats did a better job. When your desire is purely to seize power (which is, after all, what a great many of them are about) then you aren't hampered by ideology. That's why they could run Jim Webb and other veterans while speaking in Washington about defunding the military. They simply discovered what would sell, and used it to get people elected in the democrat column.

Now, we can all post for the next ten years about which way would have been the best philosophy (moderate or conservative) but the fact is that this election really had nothing to do with either. It had to do with who was willing to do the most to regain or keep power, and the democrats won.

IF we had had a cohesive national message, if we had not been divided on issues since Katrina,if we had not had some really embarassing scandals, we might have been able to overcome this. However, with pundits assailing the President, Congressional Republicans split over immigration and earmarks, and the President only hiring Tony Snow late in the game to put out an improved PR effort, we simply couldn't overcome it.

Rove is an excellent political strategist, but no matter how good someone is, there one day arrives someone better, and right now this person is Rahm Emmanuel.

If I had a say in what goes on I would suggest the following:

1. No dissension within the party should be aired on national media. Anyone who does this would be stripped of committee assignments and campaign cash. Disagreements belong on the floor of the Congress and in votes and in letters to constituents. We do not owe Chris Matthews air time to help divide the party.

2. President Bush is the president for two more years. The media has done a number on him and does NOT need our help in attacking the president. Anyone who calls him too liberal, too conservative, too wishy-washy, failed, traitor, etc. is doing nothing but further depressing his approval ratings. It won't be easy for the 2008 candidate, whoever he may be, to run following a "despised" president, and all you have to think about is Hubert Humphrey following Lyndon Johnson. Keep your opinions to yourself for the sake of whoever runs in 2008.

3. Congressmen and Senators should start paying attention to LOCAL issues that could be used against them. Staffers should be monitoring the local papers and media. After seeing how Sodrel and Hostettler were sandbagged by this stuff, I am not so sure we can win much in 2008, especially since Governor Daniels will be at the head of the state ticket.

4. Finally, realize that a huge number of voters don't vote based on philosophy of government. They vote on who will protect their jobs, who seems like a nice guy, who has done stuff they can identify with, who has good hair, etc. They don't give a flying hoot about "limited government" or "social justice." If you talk to them about inside baseball stuff like whether Pence or Boehner should be minority leader, their eyes glaze over and they start edging away from you, figuring you are a whack-job. However, their votes count just as much as Rush Limbaugh's, mine, or yours. We had better understand them rather than patronizing them or ignoring them.

We have to lose our complacency that our message is self-evident, and that the public trusts only Republicans with national security. It is obvious that the public is easily misled and confused.

At any rate, this is my take on what happened.

[ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton]

Hey MM:

This is as close as possible to my feelings about what happened. Where there was a PRO CHOICE Pubbie the Rats ran a PRO LIFE one. If a Pubbie voted against guns, the Rats ran a pro gun rat, ect.

It happened time and time again throughout the country.

[EternalVigilance]

Bookmark for when I have more time to thoughtfully consider...

[Pepper777]

" I changed my tune after I heard Tony Snow saying that the WH considered it good news that they would have a new Congress to work with on immigration and then that was followed the next day by the President jumping with both feet on immigration and minimum wage."

I was stunned by both the President and Snow saying it was good news to have a pack of rats to work with on immigration. Has anyone figured out a way to spin those remarks in a positive way?? It was a horrible thing to hear right after the GOP loss of both houses. ;( :(

[PhiKapMom]

I think Boehner is going to be just fine.

Since Pence hired Chris Wilson as his consultant, I am not surprised he lost by so much. If anyone could turn a person off not to vote for Pence, it would be Wilson who was a consultant to Istook's campaign for OK Governor and Romney's campaign as a consultant. He made a lot of people mad here in OK with the way he ran things. IMO, Wilson is one of the dirtiest consultants I know when it comes to campaign as he will stoop as low as he can in order to win. This year he is now 0-7 as Oklahomans caught on to his dirty campaign tactics and phoney polls. He is a Republican but runs a campaign like a Democrat. He also hired a consultant to improve his image, but no way anyone connected to a campaign that went up against Wilson is going to forget him and his tactics.

Worst run campaigns I have ever witnessed were here in OK in our statewide races. Istook couldn't even hold the 5th district.

[PhiKapMom]

Here they used scare tactics of Kerry, Hillary, Teddy, and Howard Dean and we didn't have a Senate race.

Freepers would be shocked to see this GOTV door hangar that OK GOP came up with. I finally took my phone off message and hooked it up to the fax machine because of complaints by Republicans. Filled up my messages after they hit the doors in this county. Never going to hold a county party office again. I prefer to freelance and work for a campaign I like. :)

[PhiKapMom]

Pres Bush and his Dad's cozying up to Clinton has caused problems here in OK where the Clintons are hated. They want the Clintons ignored because when Bill and Hillary speak out a lot, our candidates do better here in OK in raising money, etc. With both Bush's cozying up to the Clintons, the Dims played it including the Democrat Governor in this election. They used it for their own credibility.

[IrishRainy]

I mean in the realization that the conservatives HAVE to win. The Dumbocrats do NOT put the good of this country first...being in power is number 1 for them.

[IrishRainy]

If the shoe was on the other foot, does the Bush family REALLY think they'd be hanging out with the Clintons? Of course not, they'd be demonized every chance Bill and Hill got.

[PhiKapMom]

Whatever the reason it is not playing well here in Oklahoma -- not even a little. That latest picture of Pres Bush with Clinton at MLK memorial ground breaking was over the top.

[VRWC For Truth]

No dissension within the party should be aired on national media.

McLame can't help himself. RINOs never listen.

You also failed to blame Bush, domestically he is weak. No veto, no bully pulpit.

It's time to clean out the leadership ... all of it.

[PhiKapMom]

Exactly! Look how much they have trashed Bush #43 even now with all this cozying up. I find it very irritating and in some ways giving credibility to Ms. Clinton. Actually I find it more than irritating, I find it disgusting!

[ggekko60506]

Super analysis.

It is good idea to take stock of things after a sound "thumping".

What happened on Tuesday should be thought of as a Democratic "mini-wave". It was not an election that signifies realignment but it does reveal serious fissures in the Center-Right coalition.

The main driver of failure on Tuesday was Political Mismanagement. Unfortunately I am beginning to see discomfiting parallels between Bush II and Clinton with regard to party building issues. I believe that President has shown great leadership in War on Terror and his critics have acted treasonous hypocrites and intellectually dishonest ciphers but on the Domestic Policy side the President has badly fractured his own coalition.

The leitmotif that runs throughout the political failures ably chronicled in these threads is a lack of idealogical unity within the Governing coalition. I have been shocked at some of the insulting and incendiary rhetoric directed against Religious Conservatives by Libertarians and other Secular Conservatives. This situation is analogous to Organized Labor going after Environmentalists as being eco-fascist nuts (which they are, of course). They might think something like this but Coalition Discipline should forbid ever saying anything like that in public. It is undisciplined and stupid to do something like that. How do we expect the voting public to react to such infighting in our coalition before an election?

I relate the drift of the Conservative Movement as starting with Newt Gingrich's retirement from politics. Since Newt left the scene the Conservative Movement has lacked a charismatic spokesman with a positive vision and agenda. A Political Movement needs both a Positive and a Negative Program. The Republican's program in this cycle was almost entirely negative and it lost badly.

An agenda for reviving the movement should include the following items:

*Party Discipline:

Weak candidates should be ruthlessly pruned
and stronger candidates should be put forward.
Numerous House races and the Florida and Montana
Senate races illustrate the importance of this
item.

*The "Vision" thing:

A positive program consisting of specific
Legislative accomplishments should be put
forward every election cycle. The Contract
With America is the perfect template for this
item.


*Coalition Discipline:

Libertarians need to decide if they want to
spend their political capital on noble, losing
efforts getting 3% of the vote.

If they want a more substantive role they should
run some their candidates in Republican
Primaries. Religious Conservatives should seek
to focus on achievable goals within a
Congressional Session rather than looking toward
more sweeping changes. The Culture War will not
be won politically. Incremenatlism is the way to
go.

*Winning by Losing:

Taking Legislative risks pays off in the long
run. This Congress was both timid and
incompetent. Social Security Reform should have
been put to a vote even if it lost. The ground
would have been softened by a losing
effort.

*Recognize the reality of the "Press Party":

The MSM has become a subsidiary unit of the
Democrats. This needs to be recognized and
managed with a consistently applied counter-
strategy. This reality will not change any
time in the near future.

I estimate that MSM cost the GOP at least
one Senate seat and 5 - 10 House Seats in
this cycle.

I hope the GOP takes up some or all of these issues. For now it is important to play good defense to prevent the Democrats from implementing any of the disastrous policy ideas.

The good news is that the Democratic idea bank is empty. When the public realizes this there will be a new opportunity to move the Center-Right coalition forward into a permanent leadership position again.

[alrea]

The MSM has become a subsidiary unit of the Democrats

a free infomercial for Democrats is what the MSM has become

[Yomin Postelnik]

The Contract with America was great, but even that only won after it "seemed popular." There were many who only voted for it (i.e. voted GOP) after it was clear that this was the thing to do. Unfortunately many people simply won't take a stand and shape their opinions by what the consensus is, or seems to be and by what the "highly sophisticated" morons at Time Magazine, the New Yak Thymes and the like opine.

Just look at Iraq. Military leaders will tell you that the strategy we've been using is exactly right. Many more troops would result in insurrection by the locals (who would see our presence - now on the sidelines and helpful - as a full blown occupation) and too few troops would be a disaster. But when the dunderheads in the media get rolling and regurgitate the words "Administration's failures in Iraq" in such a way as to imitate a choking parrot on speed, the end result is that people end up believing that the Administration is ignoring the army (never mind that all policy is made after consulting the generals on the ground) and is failing. Such "failure" even seems to be common knowledge and anyone who disagrees must be out of their minds. It doesn't matter that these same talking heads can't point to any specific failures, knowing full well that no example they'd give would stand up to even the smallest amount of scrutiny. Just the notion that the Administration has "failed," when repeated often enough and long enough has made this idiocy seem "common knowledge" to a whole slew of people, the same ones who decided to vote for the Contract with America only after supporting it seemed "the thing to do."

Miss Marple's take is 100% on and sooner we realize it the better. The solution is also clear. We need to get out there and challenge the lamebrain lying lunatics on the left. We need to have strong and coherent messages that the average apolitical person can get. A few months ago I wrote a guide to trying to win the past midterms. It stressed going on the attack with simple messages challenging the ridiculous notions being touted as genius by the Thymes et al. In short, it wasn't meant to be but it's also not too late to start. And by the way, Sen. Martinez telling the NYT that winning back the Senate in '08 is a "daunting task" isn't the way to start. Boehner's also got to fine tune his message and all should start listening to some of the good advice in Miss Marple's piece.

Miss Marple - You mention that you rarely write vanities. That's too bad. You're spot on.

[Miss Marple]

Scare tactics like that simply turn people off, if not making them outright mad. I remember you posting about those door-hangers, and I agree. We need a positive message to get those swing voters; they are insulted by scare ads.

[Miss Marple]

I reluctantly have to agree with you about President Bush's lack of party-building, although I think the disconnect between different wings of the party is almost nowinsurmountable by any leadership from the White House.

I do think there is a failure within the party to understand the other side's necessity. Moderate's DO look down on social conservatives as trouble-makers and fanatics; conservatives DO look at moderates as too liberal to be in the party (look at all of the glee on this forum for Lincoln Chaffee's defeat). I do think that both wings need to get together and decide what issues they can agree on and push those. We all can surely agree on making the tax cuts permanent. There must be other issues as well.

Also, I would like the President to explain his position on the border; not with platitudes, but with honest reasons and facts, complete with pictures and charts. This is one of the most divisive issues in our party, and I don't feel that he has made enough of an effort to make his case.

Thank you for your comments.

[Grampa Dave]

My tagline sums up this election.

The Bush haters on both sides have elected the government they have dreamed of!

That is the same suicidal idealogue that gave us the 8 years of the Clintoons.

[Mamzelle]

re: Also, I would like the President to explain his position on the border; not with platitudes, but with honest reasons and facts, complete with pictures and charts. This is one of the most divisive issues in our party, and I don't feel that he has made enough of an effort to make his case.))0

To do that, he would have oppened himself to compromise. A lot of misery could have been avoided if he'd done just that...opened himself to compromise. But he'd have had to have listened to some criticism and some very upset Republicans. It was just easier to mouth talking-points and play "talk to the hand."

There are a lot of his very loyal supporters who wanted to show him the state of their schools and communties, the destabilization and dislocation that a flood of strangers who are not Americans is causing. Things like watching a school budget shift from math, English lit, science--to English as a Second Language. Getting your car wrecked by a willing driver who flees the scene. Having to employ translators instead of nurses at the local hospitals. Just having the nature of your home town changed overnight, being run by a scarey little godfather at the Iglesia Evangelista.

These are all reasonable concerns which were treated as unreasonable, and when the concerns persisted, the cruel playing of the race card.

And Bush failed to understand when he claimed that the problem was impossible to address without massive, million-amnesties policies--he was destroying any faith people had in him on Iraq. If he can't deal with Mexico in America' interst, he sure can't bring democracy and freedom to Iraq in our interest.

He knocked the props out from under the WOT.

[PhiKapMom]

There is a revolt going on here about the leadership of our State Party in this election. Have been invited to attend a meeting in OKC. Looks like I wasn't the only one disgusted with the door hangar and other things.

Did an informal survey after I started getting nasty calls about the door hangar. Called 50 houses, talked to 37 people, and it was unanimous that they detested the door hangar and 22 of these lifelong Republicans had decided to vote for the Democrats in our County Court House and state House races. When I asked where they would place themselves in the Party, conservative, moderate, or liberal, the answers were mostly moderate in the area I called. Even the few conservatives were mad at a GOTV effort was all negative.

The my way or no way crowd need to get a clue that we need everyone to vote because Republicans in most states are outnumbered in registration and we have to reach out to moderates and liberal Republicans. The Republican Party was here a long time before they even thought of getting involved and now they want it their way or they threaten not to vote. Frankly I am tired of those one issue types. We need a coalition or we are going to lose the White House in 2008.

[pollyannaish]

Miss Marple...you are a treasure. Correct and a grown up to boot.

THANK YOU! I concur on all points.

Now, I have to sit down and quit applauding and jumping up and down before my family thinks I have truly gone over the edge...but if I didn't have to do that, I would be screaming for an encore! ;-)