Please don't do yourself the disservice of believing that that which is not consistent with your own opinion is hubris.
Worry about the base all you want. People who say we can't depend on the base to vote for a conservative president have to explain why a bunch of social conservative Dems knocked of Republicans on 7 November. Those who say we can run Rudy McRomney and get more votes have to explain why a public that likes left-leaners threw out a congress full of overspending moderates who look like McCain.
Knocked of=knocked off
What was more telling was the loss of the conservatives, in conservative districts.
In the next cycle, those moderates will not be there. The next cycle will show that it is Republicans in general, saddled now with the label of "republican=conservative", are a threatened species.