Posted on 12/22/2006 2:42:15 PM PST by LdSentinal
Last week Louisiana Republicans were urging Baker to run.
A run by Baker would be surprising, as he has made no attempt to win name I.D. outside of Baton Rouge. I still think that Boustany (a doctor with a Cajun-sounding name from a Democratic-voting area) would be the best choice.
Also, I don't rule out Julie Quinn, who has a base in Metarie and is attractive and articulate.
I don't think a Baker run would be wise for 2 reasons. #1, he has reached that threshold where House members have difficulty making the transition to the Senate (it will be 22 years in '08), and #2, his seat could be vulnerable to a 'Rat takeover, especially if Fox McKeithen's daughter tries again. Baker should stay put.
Yes, even based on current Census Bureau estimates, it's going to require 714,628 constituents per district -- probably more by 2010. Orleans has what, 200K? The district could be the mother of all gerrymanders, if indeed it's possible to preserve it.
Yup, I figure only a smidge better than that (I'm guessing LA may be fortunate to add around 50k overall by then), and Orleans Parish may only be at or below 200-250k by then (and I believe half that figure are White folks from better neighborhoods that weren't as bad off as others), having lost 2/3rds of its population in the past several decades. Barring some grotesque caricature, I don't see how the seat doesn't become competitive as it will have to take in surrounding heavily GOP suburbs. The seat as it is is now a "rotten borough" with regards to population.
Unfortunately, they are staying in the United States. We would be better off if the 'Rats would leave the country altogether.
As I wrote a bit over a year ago, LA will have to draw a black-majority CD after the 2010 Census, and it may not be all that difficult to do:
In 2012, LA will almost certainly lose a House seat, and I think they'll have to extend the New Orleans 2nd CD west through Lake Pontchartrain to take in black-majority areas(St. John the Baptist, St. James, Assumption, Iberville, Point Coupee and parts of St. Landry and West Baton Rouge) and thus reach the population requirement while maintaining a black majority (the Voting Rights Act would not let them eliminate the only black-majority congressional district in the state). I think the 1st CD would be comprised of St. Tammany, St. Bernard, Plaquemines, most of Jefferson, all of St. Charles and a tiny part of Orleans, which would mean that the state would finally have a single 100% Cajun CD taking in the western part of the current 3rd and the eastern part of the current 7th. The Baton Rouge 6th CD would add Washington, Tangihopa and all of Ascention and shed black precincts in Iberville, Point Coupee and West Baton Rouge, making it safely Republican even if blacks who left New Orleans stay in East Baton Rouge. The 4th would move south to take in Lake Charles, while the 5th would have to move south and west. There would be 5 Republican congressmen and 1 Democrat under such a plan, and I doubt that Democrat redistricters could draw a map that would allow them to elect more Democrats to Congress while preserving a black-majority 2nd CD. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1533111/posts?page=21#21
There is no doubt in my mind that Boustany would be our best choice. He's from Lafayette so he'll do well in South Louisiana, but he's also a Protestant, thus ensuring big margins over Landrieu in North Louisiana.
The VRA was interpreted to require that SC, AL and MS each create a black majority district in 1992. If you look at the districts created, none of which were struck down by the courts, their borders were quite erose and the districts took in several different population centers. Same thing goes for two of the three black-majority CDs in Florida---the FL-23, for example, uses the Everglades to connct several different black population centers. Using Lake Pontchartrain to connect black-majority areas in parishes that are geographically near New Orleans (but, by using the lake, avoiding including heavily white neighborhoods in Orleans, Jefferson and St. Charles Parishes) is the least grotesque way of preserving a black-majority CD in Louisiana.
Frankly, I don't see how the LA legislature can avoid drawing such a CD, since spreading the state's black voters over 5 or 6 different districts would be deemed to be retrogression. The state is over 30% black, and the only VRA issue there is whether the state should have one or two black-majority CDs---given how absurdly erose the district lines were for the "Zorro District" that was struck down in 1994 or so, redrawn, and then struck down again, I think we can assume that LA only needs one black-majority CD.
But even if the VRA is not interpreted to require a black-majority CD in LA, it would be very difficult for LA Dems to get away with not drawing a black majority CD based in New Orleans. Blacks are the #1 constituency of the LA Democrat Party, and the leadership needs to keep black Democrat leaders happy.
Far fewer people lived on the MS Gulf Coast than in southeastern Louisiana, but more importantly, being above sea level helped them avoid the weeks of catastrophic flooding that followed the hurricane. Mississippi was walloped by the hurricane, New Orleans was hit not as badly but suffered the flood. Not that this should be a pissing contest.
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