Republicans in my neck of the woods lost in November because the center abandoned Republicans due to the War and Immigration. Our republican turnout was as large and loyal as it had been since 1994.Then your area was the exception and not the rule.
From TownHall.org (Janice Shaw Crouse):
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In terms of how groups voted, there were slight, but very significant changes from 2002 to 2006 that spelled disaster for the GOP.
• More Republicans voted for Democrats (9 percent), than Democrats voted for Republicans (6 percent).
• More conservatives voted for Democrats (21 percent), than liberals voted for Republicans (10 percent).
• Nearly 30 percent (29 percent) of White Evangelicals voted for Democrats, and 54 percent of those who attend church weekly voted for Democrats.
• Among voters who thought that the scandals were "extremely important," 53 percent voted Democrat.
Though roughly the same percentage of evangelicals voted in 2006 as voted in 2002 (24 and 25 percent), there was a 2 percentage point drop in conservatives who voted (34 percent in 2002 compared with 32 percent in 2006). Also, there was an increase in the percentage of liberals who voted; in 2002, 17 percent of voters identified themselves as liberal compared to 21 percent in 2006.
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As anyone here on FR can see, while there was a small drop of conservatives that turned out to vote (a 2% drop), there was a 4% INCREASE in liberal voters.
Those 2% of conservatives who did not vote are the stay at home, protest non-voters. 2% could easily have swung a number of states. It appears that more liberal voters realized how important these mid-terms were than conservative voters.
We get the politicians we deserve by our voting (or non-voting) actions.
Your breakdown is correct but misses a key point that was brought up in the other analyses:
"The single biggest nail in the 2006 coffin was the Republican women's vote, which voted in staggering numbers for Democrats in 2006. The most often cited reason were the war in Iraq and Healthcare."
The Republican women's vote, like it or not, is very wishy-washy. It is often cited as one of the key factors in Clinton's two victories.
Breaking even with Evangelical Conservatives turnout (as compared to the prior elections) while seeing a slight (just less than 2%) drop in general Conservative turnout in 2006 is not what hurt the most. What hurt the most is the enormous amount of crossover Republican vote (non-Conservative Republicans) who didn't even do us the favor of just staying home, and instead chose to punish the GOP by electing Democrats.
In summary, what hurt us the most - plain and simple - was the disenfranchisement by non-Conservative Republicans with, primarily, the War in Iraq. They went weak about it, not the Conservatives. They want out, especially the Republican women (not Conservative, that is).
The 2% decrease hurt. 2% want a perfect party. But they are not the ones truly responsible for what happened in November. At least they did us the FAVOR of staying home, as opposed to the RINO voters who think they can vote Iraq out of the news.
All you need to know is this: in Virginia, women voted for Webb 60%-40% - a man who could probably be accurately described as an open misogynist. That tells you what really hurt us in the last election.
Stop blaming Conservatives for a slight - statistically within the margin of error - drop in turnout.