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Unfortunately, NASA could never develop launch capability cheaply. A commercial company probably could, but NASA would dedicate itself to quashing any rivals.
NASA is not about space any more, its about power, pork and job security these days.

Mainly because they've been tasked by congress to keep the Shuttle work force employed. Those resources could be better spent on developing surface mobility technologies and ISRU for the Moon and Mars when we get there. Instead we're pussy-footing around developing capsules and launch vehicles that should be derived from existing vehicles like Atlas or Delta. Anyone who says that Ares is Shuttle-derived hasn't looked at it very closely. Since they are no longer using the SSMEs the only throwbacks to the Shuttle are the SRB segments which are inefficient and heavy and the colour scheme.

They would do better by reviving the F-1A engine and using an RP-1/LOX first stage, since they're going with a clean-sheet design anyway. If you actually want to use Shuttle-derived technology, then use it DIRECTly!

Or spend the development money on man-rating Delta or Atlas. That would free up some funds that could be used to speed up development of the CEV, thus having first launch in 2010 or 2011 right after the Shuttle is retired. Since we'll still need heavy-lift capability, develop a truly shuttle-derived vehicle such as Shuttle-C or something more akin to Energyia. With 2 strap-on SRBs and a cargo pod on the side where the shuttle goes, with 2 or 3 RS-68's on the bottom of the shuttle ET.

Just by a quick calculation. You could get pretty close to the 100 metric tonne mark. The shuttle orbiter has a mass of 109000 kg at launch. Each RS-68 puts out about 1.5 times the thrust of a SSME (400000lbs vs 650000lbs at S.L.) and has a mass of 6600kg. So we have about 95000 kg to work with. Say a cargo pod (essentially nothing more than an aerodynamic fairing) has a mass of 10000kg (which is a conservative estimate), we still have 85000kg to LEO, much more than any other booster system in production today. And developed significantly cheaper than the current solutions.

That solution would require few if any changes to the launch pads, and the crawlers. Most of the development money would go to Boeing or Lockheed (or both) and to infrastructure changes at KSC and VAB. Now you could interest DOD in the manned infrastructure because they can launch it into polar orbits from Vandenberg. But that's neither here nor there. If Orion could be launched by either Delta or Atlas at any given time, launch rates could skyrocket. This would allow support of the ISS, the Moon AND Mars simultaneously. NASA would have a pseudo-heavy lift launcher and contract out the manned launches.

We would be able to support the ISS by 2011 (just after the Shuttle retires) and the Moon by 2015 or sooner.

Until the Treaty is repealed we will never know.