Posted on 01/19/2007 2:44:28 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks
Commodities expert Jim Rogers says that, while he can't pinpoint the exact timeframe, oil will reach $100 a barrel after a "correction." Readers will remember that Rogers predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999.
"I'm just not smart enough to know how far down it will go and how long it will stay, but I do know that within the context of the bull market, oil will go over $100," Rogers said in a Tokyo interview. "It will go over $150. Whether that is in 2009 or 2013, I don't have a clue, but I know it's going to happen."
Currently, MoneyNews' sister publication Financial Intelligence Report is forecasting that oil will fall to as low as $40 a barrel.
Crude oil has fallen as much as 36.4 percent to a 20-month low since hitting a peak of $78.40 a barrel in mid July. Crude dropped to a low of $49.90 a barrel yesterday and has since rebounded to around $52 today. A 20 percent decline generally indicates a bear market.
But Rogers says the fundamentals for $100 a barrel oil are still very much alive. There hasn't been a major oil discovery in 30 years and economic growth in China and other Asian countries is boosting demand for oil, he says.
Rogers says the current correction in oil prices is to be expected.
"When you have big bull markets, 50 percent corrections, or retractions, are normal," he said in an interview yesterday. "It has often happened throughout history in a bull market."
Rogers pointed out that the gold bull market in the 1970s experienced a two-year correction before resuming.
"Corrections go down long enough to scare everybody out and make sure they give up, and then they turn around," he said. "We are in a secular bull market for commodities which has another decade or two to go."
On a side note, Rogers also revealed that he's holding airline shares, a strange investment given his prediction that oil will rebound to $100 a barrel. But the move is paying off.
"The only airline where I'm losing money in the last year is Japan Airlines," said Rogers.
Financial Intelligence Report, in its latest edition of "The Four Ways to Profit from the Oil Bust of 2007," recommends our favorite airline stock. To get your free copy, go here now.
© NewsMax 2007. All rights reserved.
Not.
Get a load of this...
Hey, get your Vespa now!!
Even a broken clock is right twice a day
This guy is an idiot.
My bets on Silver. SLW, SLV. 10 baggers in 5 years. No more than 5% of net worth in any single investment category. That is all.....
This guy was a meterologist in a former life.
Hope he can remember where he parked his car.
I predict oil will reach $100 a barrel at some time between now and the end of the world, too.
$100 oil is not sustainable, for the simple reason that alternatives are available at significantly less than that price.
But how quickly can those alternatives come on line? You can have 100 dollar oil for a while. None other than T. Boone Pickens thinks we will. The good news is, you wont't get there without a booming worldwide economy.
By 2050 world oil production will be 10-20% of what it is now. Can't say what the price might be; it might still be at $50.
Yeah, $100.00 oil. Someday, like when a Big Mac is $20.00.
$100 a barrel. $150 a barrel. $40 a barrel. $10 a barrel. What's an alarmist to do?
Solar cells are $5 a watt. Nothing is cheaper than oil even now.
In true bizzaro world context, the Fed would probably hint at their non-displeasure at a six-month run on oil to cool a sizzling economy which is "shocking" the CaNned BullCrap talking heads at the moment.
This is not news, it's an advertisement. (read the last sentence) Besides, just because somebody gets something right once by way of a lucky guess doesn't mean they are any more an expert than someone else. I won eleven dollars by predictin 3 numbers in a lottery draw, but people aren't coming to my house asking me for my picks for next week. I guess I should advertise more.
Damn way to hedge your bets there dude
LOL, yeah Jim Rogers is a real moron. Given his massive stupidity, god knows how he managed to build the Quantum Fund at a 3,365% rate while the Dow did 20% in the same time frame.
Sounds like somebody trying to protect his investments.
It will be $100 a barrel if the dimocRATS have their way. They are off to a good start.
I used to know a commodities trader who had a vanity plate on his Jag that said $100 oil. That was TWENTY YEARS ago! It hasn't gotten there yet. I just wish that thsi nation would get serious about harvesting our oil reserves. That is the best thing to keep the price down.
We have got to find another source of energy and soon. This is one of our biggest national security risks in my opinion. It's also apparently one of our biggest economic security risks as well.
We either need to take the oil fields in the middle east by force if necessary, massive exploration in our own lands, or find another source. Something must be done! Finding another source is the best long term solution. Continuing to rely on oil, and expanding exploration or taking oil fields would only be a relative short term solution in the grand scheme of things.
Have we all here forgotten about inflation? It could drive oil that high.
My thoughts exactly.
I thought he was on MASH....LOL.
Probably a damn crook. He's an idiot.
This is like the Liberals trying to predict what the Earth is going to do (global warming) Nobody knows. There are just to many factors.
This isn't prognostication, this is inflation. When he produces a date then I'll take this seriously.
Brilliant, I'm convinced.
The USA has had 30 years and more to develop a different power infrastructure without pain. Nothing has been done, although there have been some interesting coal plant experiments at Dept of Energy. It's simply too late and we are going off the cliff at top speed some time in the next seven years.
Surely you jest.
That's who I thought too! That's Wayne Rogers, who now appears on Fox doing investment stuff though as well!.
I predict that there will be a major hurricane on the Gulf Coast. I also predict that my prediction is more accurate than his.
Yes it is, especially when you don't specify a time frame. Say 10,20,30 years from now, . . . . .
And Washington DC seems to be sleeping at the wheel. Both parties are to blame in this regard, especially the democrats. This energy issue could be worse than Socialist Security going to hell as far as impact on the country in the way it will hit us fast and very hard.
Perhaps. There was a philosopher who could not leave his hut without laughing all the time at everybody. There was another who could do nothing but scowl, even at children, no matter what. I do believe world oil production will be 10-20% of what it is now by 2050, although the price might stay right where it is. Got to admit there is a lot laughable these days.
Well, my sources tell me we've barely scratched the surface of oil on this planet. These are oil guys talking, but I'll give them the BOTD over the alarmists and enviroweenies.
If only he could pinpoint the time frame of the Pelosi tax revolution he would have the time frame in nanoseconds.
Since FedGov has grabbed so much regulatory power they must accept responsibility whichever way it goes. I sense a tipping point, but not an Algore tipping point. Nevertheless, we are not in crisis right now and ought to be making up for the last thirty wasted years of not building nukes and modern coal plants. We might make it or not; doing nothing would tend to the latter outcome.
I thought Mr Rogers was dead?
Rodger's has gone kooky! By 2013, there will be so many alternate energy items coming on line heavily. Bio fuels, ethanol, oil sands, new drilling, etc., etc.
Unfortunately now that the idiot has said it, it becomes an excuse to do so.
World oil production in the major oil producing regions was down last year for the first time ever. Reserves, especially Saudi, were inflated in the effort to drive the USSR into extinction. That worked, but inflated reserves, which drive up company value, have to deflate back to reality eventually, and that appears to be now. The major new finds aren't really that major and only back off Peak Oil two months.
Uh oh. It sounds like someone read "Guns, Germs, and Steel". I thought I was the only freeper who had.
No, everything I know I learned from Art Bell.
I've heard that theory. I dismiss it.
It's the only thing I ever heard on Art Bell that I found unsettling, Corsi notwithstanding.
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