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Why anti-immigration conservatives fell flat in 2006
Reason magazine ^ | February 2007 | David Weigel

Posted on 01/27/2007 8:55:29 AM PST by spintreebob

click here to read article


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To: rockrr

"If you can delude yourself into believing that then I'm sure you can delude yourself into believing anything."

Sounds like he's not the one deluded.


41 posted on 01/27/2007 11:15:51 AM PST by EnochPowellWasRight
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To: spintreebob

I don't know if he's right or wrong. There is great anti-illegal sentiment among the active political conservatives.

But I can't find it amongst any normal people I talk to. They don't like illegal immigrants, they don't like houses with 12 adults and 7 cars clogging the streets, they don't like schools where their children are minorities and they have to hire spanish-speaking teachers.

But they aren't looking to vote for someone simply because they are against illegals. Meanwhile, the pro-immigrant forces seem much more motivated to vote against what they call "hate".

Except in places where the pro-illegal people have actually won major concessions, like where day labor centers are built -- then the anti-illegal crowd, seeing contrete evidence of how much they are losing, will vote the issue.

I think President Bush did his best to frame the issue in a way that doesn't come across as "anti-hispanic". I think Tancredo and company ARE anti-hispanic; I could be wrong, but if nothing else my belief in that is echoed by millions of voters, and perception drives votes. Bush was going for the middle ground, not supporting amnesty, supporting a really tough guest worker program.

But the anti-illegal crowd mistook his soothing rhetoric for weakness, thought they had a winning issue, destroyed any chance of winning ANYTHING, and lost the election. So now we are stuck with the DEMOCRATS idea of fixing the problem, and none of us are going to like it.

The key to winning is often misleading your opponents. A fake run doesn't work if everybody rejects the play because, thinking it is a real run, argue that you need to pass.


42 posted on 01/27/2007 11:17:15 AM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: spintreebob

"Note, I am not saying that everybody loves illegals (like I do). But the reality is that most people, including many conservative Republicans, just don't see the reason for the hysteria and irrational passion."

Well you see Bob, the reason is this: Many of us like living under a Capitalistic system. To maintain such a system you must have the rule of law. When government officials pick and chose which laws they will enforce in order to achieve a certain end you ultimately wind up with chaos and anarchy.

Once the average citizen perceives that the laws are meaningless and won't be enforced why should he follow the ones he does not like? Why not cheat on taxes? Why be honest in business dealings, etc.?

Once a certain threshold is reached guess what: you'll have the sort of Capitalist system that they have in Russia. Is it worth it to save a few bucks on cheap labor? Is no one capable of extrapolation or foresight anymore?


43 posted on 01/27/2007 11:27:13 AM PST by jack308
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To: CharlesWayneCT
The RNC Memo warned the GOP candidates.
44 posted on 01/27/2007 11:34:05 AM PST by Ben Ficklin
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To: spintreebob

The MSM would not let it become an election issue. They went along with all the politico's that didn't want it to be an issue (mainly dems) The sad thing is Tancredo will try to make it an issue, as he has over the last 8 years, but will get little or no backing from the RINO's...no backing no news, if a reporter doesn't shove a mic in your face for a comment, or doesn't ask an immigration question...guess what...there's no story


45 posted on 01/27/2007 11:44:27 AM PST by Doogle (USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated)
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To: Ben Ficklin

"The RNC Memo warned the GOP candidates."

That memo lied. There was no great call for "Comprehensive Immigration Reform" from Republican voters. There is no reason to tie our security to an earned-citizenship amnesty.

Conservatives need to do a little warning to the RNC.


46 posted on 01/27/2007 11:51:15 AM PST by EnochPowellWasRight
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To: Owen

Anybody talking about Foley lately? I've never seen a more precisely timed, carefully orchestrated October surprise attack....ever. Masterful. Meaningless in the grand scope of things but masterful.


47 posted on 01/27/2007 11:56:09 AM PST by Liberty Valance (Keep a simple manner for a happy life ;o)
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To: EnochPowellWasRight
The 2006 exit polling confirmed the RNC memo.

AZ is a good example. Hayworth campaigned/lost on enforcement only. His opponent campaigned/won on enforcement, guest workers, and amnesty

48 posted on 01/27/2007 12:01:41 PM PST by Ben Ficklin
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To: Ben Ficklin

"The 2006 exit polling confirmed the RNC memo."

Which exit poll? Conducted by whom? The RNC?


49 posted on 01/27/2007 12:05:28 PM PST by EnochPowellWasRight
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To: Liberty Valance


Rahm Emmanuel made Karl Rove
look like a piker last November.
50 posted on 01/27/2007 12:06:46 PM PST by Liberty Valance (Keep a simple manner for a happy life ;o)
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To: harrowup
If you are really his base,

then you should support him.

How succinct. Is this the Bushbot mantra? Is it chanted robotically?

51 posted on 01/27/2007 12:08:08 PM PST by Plutarch (To Bush OBL >> GOP.)
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To: Plutarch

"How succinct. Is this the Bushbot mantra? Is it chanted robotically?"

Apparently, we exist only to serve the party leadership.

That would seem to fly in the face of representative government, of course.


52 posted on 01/27/2007 12:14:55 PM PST by EnochPowellWasRight
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To: Dane

You really undermine President Bush by dividing Republicans.
Reason is a Libertarian magazine.
I support Bush and voted twice for him.
I also want the border area 20 miles south of me secured.
You are sitting in Pa. telling those of us who deal with the crime, millions of dollars of a year of San Diego taxpayers supporting illegals and
20 miles south of me are beheadings, kidnappings, and worse daily.


53 posted on 01/27/2007 12:16:22 PM PST by SoCalPol (We Need A Border Fence Now)
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To: SoCalPol

I think it's a lot like people elsewhere, have almost no way of conceptualizing what it's like in Seoul, or Tel Aviv, where one is within miles of millions of potential adversaries.

I'm not equating Mexico with NK, or with Syria, but to someone sitting in Pennsylvania, it just doesn't compute.

Perhaps if the poster were to imagine 1,000,000 illegal New Jersey fugitives pouring into Philadelphia every year, that might help them to understand. :)

(with tongue in cheek apologies to those in NJ)


54 posted on 01/27/2007 12:25:31 PM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (Mr. President: PARDON NACHO AND JOSE!)
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To: spintreebob

Oh BS....what do the real facts show us from the past on this...exactly what happened...


55 posted on 01/27/2007 12:27:14 PM PST by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand; but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

Those who post on FR who are against the war or securing
the border to stop the illegals are no better than those who still deny there was a Holocaust


56 posted on 01/27/2007 12:34:55 PM PST by SoCalPol (We Need A Border Fence Now)
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To: spintreebob

Both those saying that the GOP lost in '06 because it was too conservative or that it was too moderate are wrong. Also, exit polls showed that immigration was highly important to very few voters. I wish people here would get those reasons out of their heads.

A large combination of things contributed to the loss, but the primary reasons were the unpopularity of President Bush, the war in Iraq, and corruption.


57 posted on 01/27/2007 12:43:18 PM PST by DallasJ7
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To: Ben Ficklin
AZ is a good example. Hayworth campaigned/lost on enforcement only. His opponent campaigned/won on enforcement, guest workers, and amnesty.

Oh, really? Here is a anti-Hayworth Mitchell ad , that mentions everything but Hayworth's immigration stance. I don't think you can show me any pro-amnesty Mitchell material. So too can I show you a zillion anti-amnesty ads by putting "immigration ad" as a search at YouTube . I doubt you can show me a single pro-amnesty 2006 election ad.

The GOP memo you tout...

The public wants a comprehensive solution that includes reform on three fronts: (i) strengthening border security/law enforcement to stem the flow of illegal immigration, (ii) enhancing the avenues through which immigrants can lawfully and safely enter the U.S. for work and (iii) creating a compassionate, practical and equitable way for those illegal immigrants already in the U.S. to legally enter the system [i.e. amnesty].

...claims that the electorate wants amnesty, but no one heeding the memo dared put it into their ads. By becoming unpopular, Bush pooped in the GOP punch bowl, resulting in GOP defeat. You go poking around among the many fallen and cry "See here, a border hawk!" It proves nothing.

Bush was prominent in his pro-Amnesty stance. If he had been on the ballot would he have fared better than the anti-illegal GOP congressmen?

58 posted on 01/27/2007 12:47:23 PM PST by Plutarch (To Bush OBL >> GOP.)
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To: EnochPowellWasRight
Read # 27 and follow the link.

Under "Governer", pick a state & click. Scroll towards the bottom where you will see the question, "should illegals be offered legal status" or "deported"

Repeat for each state

59 posted on 01/27/2007 12:51:56 PM PST by Ben Ficklin
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To: Owen
The exit polls showed the #1 issue of voters was not immigration, not taxes, not abortion, not guns and NOT IRAQ.

LOL!!!!!

I double dare you to prove that.

60 posted on 01/27/2007 12:58:15 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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