First Primaries Could Call The Races

WASHINGTON TIMES ^ | 02/11/07 | Donald Lambro

[BunnySlippers]

Strategists are trying to determine how the front-loading changes will affect traditional presidential campaigning, but the consensus seems to be it will work to the advantage of the better-funded, high-name recognition front-runners who will have the money to compete in the big four's expensive media markets.

Should one of them falter in one or more of the early-January contests, such as in independent-minded Iowa or New Hampshire, they would have the resources to recover in the Feb. 5 mega-primaries, strategists say.

In the Democratic race, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton holds strong early leads over her rivals in New Jersey and her native state of Illinois and in California. On the Republican side, former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani held a wide lead in a Quinnipiac University poll in New Jersey and California.

"If you take the lead in early January, you can convert it into a prohibitive delegate lead in the bigger states," said Mac Stipanovich, a Florida Republican campaign strategist.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is in back of the Democratic pack. His advisers think he will have opportunities throughout the Western and Northeastern states to raise his political profile. They also say the power of the big four could cause front-runners to stumble.

"There's no question that the primary calendar is getting more front-loaded, and California is kind of the 800-pound gorilla in that schedule," said Democratic state party chairman and Richardson adviser John Wertheim. "Clearly, Hillary Clinton will have a formidable campaign, but that doesn't mean she will have an insurmountable campaign by any stretch of the imagination."

[BunnySlippers]

I didn't know if we had to excerpt WT.

Interesting topic though.

[NormsRevenge]

It should be interesting whoever wins,, don't stay up all night beating up on the natives,, they get restless sometimes but most of them are OK. ;-]

[BunnySlippers]

You're obviously not on the ping list but you might like this.

More Bill simon

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1783242/posts

[Unmarked Package]

"The February schedule, however, will be dramatically changed, as four major electoral states -- New Jersey, Illinois, Florida and California -- are expected to move their primaries up to Feb. 5. They will join eight other states on a Super Tuesday primary that officials in both parties say will all but seal the nominations."

It will be over by Feb. 5, 2008 and terribly expensive media markets will be in the deciding mix. The candidates with the most money on hand are the prohibitive favorites. FReepers should take note for their future Internet activist efforts for their favorite candidate, the #1 goal is to RAISE MONEY.

[KellyAdmirer]

Hillary has the most to lose early. She's the Democrat frontrunner only because she has the look of a winner. The liberal crazies who vote in the primaries don't like her stance on Iraq, and it's hard to tell where she really stands on a lot of other issues - which is just how she wants to keep it for as long as possible. Poke a hole in her image of inevitability early, and she might just fall apart.

[BunnySlippers]

I wanted to bring this topic front and center because I think most people do not know how different this election is going to be.

Folks keep saying thwy have 2 years. They do not have 2 years!

[Strategerist]

I've been saying what this article has been saying for weeks....

There's no hope for marginal candidates. The only way to increase hope is for all of them to drop out and endorse one of the others - of the marginal, hopeless candidates, Hunter is the best of the bunch.

If you're lucky maybe he can get a 20% showing in South Carolina or something (it's an open primary though) and maybe get to speak at the Convention in some sort of port-a-potty outside the hall.

[Norman Bates]

I don't think the primaries should be changed. I hope this is not a movement simply to accomodate any specific candidate.

[BunnySlippers]

It isn't.

Four or five states have chosen to move up their primaries. It is costly but all appear to be on schedule for moving up.

[BigSkyFreeper]

February 5th will be pivotal not only to the one with the most cash, but to each candidate as there will be a slew of states otherwise usually looked over by the candidates to actually go into to campaign in. The one that can move about all the states that will hold primaries on February 5th with the broadest message that can reach every voter in those states, will come out the winner that night.

Gone will be the luxury of having just one or two states which to focus on.

[BigSkyFreeper]

Four or five states have chosen to move up their primaries.

That's what the article says, but there are more than half a dozen that plan on moving up to February 5th, including most of the western states from Montana, down to the four corners region out to California and Washington.

[BunnySlippers]

Thank you. I'm glad you pointed that out.

[onyx]

Here's what the primary dates looked like in 2000.

  2000 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DATES

AND CANDIDATE FILING DEADLINES FOR BALLOT ACCESS

(Data as of 6/23/00)

Note: Dates Subject to Change /  General Election Date 11/7/00

Establishing the date for a Presidential primary, and determining the type of Presidential primary held, varies from state to state. This is due to differences in state statutes, party constitutions, party rules and regulations, party by-laws, and delegate selection plans. In some states, a caucus and/or convention may be held instead of a Presidential primary election. Other states may use a combination of both caucuses and primaries for delegate selection. This state-by-state variation should be kept in mind when examining this listing of dates for the 2000 Presidential primaries. Questions concerning a state’s primary election procedure should be addressed to the state’s Election Director. The dates listed are tentative and subject to change.
STATE	PRIMARY DATE	CAUCUS DATE	FILING DEADLINE FOR PRIMARY BALLOT ACCESS	INDEPENDENT FILING 1 DEADLINE FOR GENERAL ELECTION
Alabama	6/6		4/7	8/31 Independent 7/3 Third/Minor
Alaska		5/19 (R) 5/20 (D) (Conventions)	n/a	8/9
American Samoa		2/26 (R) 3/7 (D)	n/a	*2
Arizona	2/22 3/11 (D)		1/13 1/10 (D)	6/14 Independent/Third
Arkansas	5/23		4/4	8/7 Political Groups
California	3/7		12/23/99 Democrats 12/24/99 Others	8/11
Colorado	3/10		1/3	7/10 3pm
Connecticut	3/7		1/21	1/21
Delaware	2/5 2/8 (R)		12/17/99	9/1
D.C.	5/2		3/3 5pm	8/15 5pm
Florida	3/14		1/4	7/15
Georgia	3/7		n/a	7/11
Guam		2/26 (R) 3/18 (D)	n/a	*2
Hawaii		3/7 (D) 5/19 (R)	n/a	9/8
Idaho	5/23		4/24	8/24
Illinois	3/21		1/19	6/26
Indiana	5/2		2/8 Noon	9/1 Noon
Iowa		1/24	n/a	8/18
Kansas		4/22 (D) 5/25 (R)	n/a	7/31 Noon
Kentucky	5/23		1/25 4pm	8/8 4pm
Louisiana	3/14		1/28	8/4
Maine	3/7		12/1/99	8/15
Maryland	3/7		12/27/99 Republicans 1/10/99 Democrats	8/7
Massachusetts	3/7		12/23/99 Noon	8/1 5pm
Michigan	2/22	3/11 (D)	12/10/99	7/20 4pm
Minnesota		3/7	n/a	9/12
Mississippi	3/14		1/14	9/8
Missouri	3/7		12/21/99	7/31
Montana	6/6		3/23	8/9
Nebraska	5/9		3/9	9/1
Nevada		5/19-21 (D) 5/25 (R) (Conventions)	n/a	5/15 Third/Minor 7/7 Independent
New Hampshire	2/1		11/19/99	9/6
New Jersey	6/6		4/13	7/31
New Mexico	6/6		3/15	7/11 Minor 9/12 Independent
New York	3/7		1/6	8/22 Independent 7/13 Third/Minor
North Carolina	5/2		2/1	6/30 Independent
North Dakota		2/29 (R) 3/7 (D)	n/a	9/8 4pm
Ohio	3/7		1/7	8/24 Independent/Minor
Oklahoma	3/14		1/12	7/15
Oregon	5/16		3/7	8/29 Independent/Minor
Pennsylvania	4/4		1/25	8/1
Puerto Rico	2/27 (R)	4/2 (D)	1/8 Republicans	*2
Rhode Island	3/7		11/30/99	6/28
South Carolina	2/19 (R)	3/9 (D)	12/13 Republicans	7/15 Noon
South Dakota	6/6		4/4	6/20 Independent
Tennessee	3/14		1/4	8/17
Texas	3/14		1/3	5/8 Independent 5/30 Third
Utah	3/10		1/17	8/30 Independent 2/15 Third/Minor
Vermont	3/7		1/17 5pm	9/21
Virginia	2/29 (R)	6/3 (D) (Convention)	12/17/99 5pm	8/25 Noon
Virgin Islands		2/26 (R) 4/1 (D)	n/a	*2
Washington	2/29		1/21	7/1
West Virginia	5/9		1/29	8/1 Independent/Minor
Wisconsin	4/4		2/15	9/5
Wyoming

[highball]

I hope this is not a movement simply to accomodate any specific candidate.

It's a movement designed to benefit the establishment candidates.

Reward those the party bosses favor, and reduce the ability of we mere peons to have our voices heard.

[NormsRevenge]

Progressives support doing and changing whatever it takes so their guy and agenda benefits most, simple as that. Hence the push to move the California primary up.

It's why I detest moderates in general and especially their backers. ;-)

If they would just play the game according to the rules which have worked just fine in the past, we wouldn't have to be subjected to this barrageof inanities and insults.

jmo

[NormsRevenge]

Thanks but I'll avoid the Rush to Judgment many are so committed to forcing others to make and join them so early on.

Simon is but one more voice, amazing how he is so with the latest 'in crowd' now but wasn't when he ran. Curious how that works, No?

[deport]

The following is a tenative schedule for the GOP primaries/caucuses subject to change I'm sure. Click to below link to go to the source so you can use state links. I didn't copy each state link over to the post.

Republican primaries and caucuses

• January 21 2008 - Iowa
• January 28 2008 - New Hampshire
• February 5 2008 - Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah, West Virginia (which will nominate a candidate at a state nominating convention)
• February 5 2008 (unofficial date) - Florida, Michigan
• February 12 2008 - Tennessee
• February 9 or February 16 2008 (date to be determined) - Louisiana
• February 19 2008 - Minnesota, Wisconsin
• February 26 2008 - New Jersey
• March 4 2008 - Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Ohio, Vermont
• March 4 2008 (unofficial date) - Pennsylvania
• March 11 2008 - Mississippi, Texas, Washington
• March 18 2008 - Illinois
• April 15 2008 - Colorado
• April 26 2008 - Kansas, Nevada
• May 2008 (date to be determined) - Alaska
• May 6 2008 - Indiana
• May 10 2008 - Wyoming
• May 13 2008 - Nebraska
• May 20 2008 - Kentucky, Oregon
• May 27 2008 - Idaho
• June 3 2008 - South Dakota, California^[2]
• June 6 2008 - Hawaii, Virginia
• June 9 2008 - Montana

---

State Presidential Primary Dates and other info

[BunnySlippers]

Well, Bill Simon is a close personal friend of Rudy and is supporting him and doing fundraisers.

Speaks well of Rudy.

And, as you know, Rudy was having lunch with Bill Simon when the first plane hit on 9/11.

[NormsRevenge]

Well , good for him. Bill backed aRnie as well, agian , we see how that panned out.

Sometimes blind loyalty is not the best approach, we'll see.

[onyx]

Your posting deserves a thread of its own, and I note I have 13 months to make up my mind. :0)