Study: P2P Effect On Legal Music Sales "Not Statistically Distinguishable From Zero"

Ars Technica ^ | 2/12/07 | Ken Fisher

[steve-b]

A new study in the Journal of Political Economy by Felix Oberholzer-Gee and Koleman Strumpf has found that illegal music downloads have had no noticeable effects on the sale of music, contrary to the claims of the recording industry.

Entitled "The Effect of File Sharing on Record Sales: An Empirical Analysis," the study matched an extensive sample of music downloads to American music sales data in order to search for causality between illicit downloading and album sales. Analyzing data from the final four months of 2002, the researchers estimated that P2P affected no more than 0.7% of sales in that timeframe....

[FreedomNeocon]

I don't see how they could ever accurately measure that.

I mean on one extreme you have the RIAA who calculate literally 100% profit loss on each downloaded song.

On the other, there could be billions and billions of additional profit gained through cross-promotions, word of mouth, or other types of 'free advertising'

Does this study just bet that 'they just about even out'? I'd venture to guess that it would be a net gain, and CERTAINLY digital song distribution cuts out alot of BS and 'red tape' bureaucracy from the record business... which I suspect is the REAL reason behind all the fuss.

[TommyDale]

The lack of talent and material has had no effect on sales, either.

[wastedyears]

If I download something and I know it's easy to find, I go out and buy it or order it online. If I know it's something pretty hard to find, I won't bother looking for it.

All in all, I even own a few LPs, one being Rush, another Deep Purple.

[MittFan08]

I haven't paid for music in almost a decade. Bought plenty of it before that. Not particularly proud of it, but there it is. So I'm skeptical of this report.

[Mr. Blonde]

It isn't a lack of talent. It is a lack of talent that is marketable to the general public. Do you really think Bob Dylan would have made it big starting today? There are a lot of great bands out there, but they don't have the pretty faces that are required to make it now.

For instance I love The Black Keys, but look at them

They don't have faces to be on MTV when they rarely play videos. And yes, this is a shameless plug for my favorite band.

[Dead Corpse]

I was using P2P to find new bands. Outside the mainstream stuff. Found some really good artists out there on no-label/small label recordings.

In general, the mainstream music industry is a bunch of no talent hacks not worth buying. Manufactured pop-tarts and cRap artists aren't my bag.

[Terabitten]

I don't see how they could ever accurately measure that.

Not trying to be snippy, but read the article, it explains their methodology. It's pretty clever, actually.

[Terabitten]

Rock and roll ping.

[babble-on]

In general, the mainstream music industry is a bunch of no talent hacks not worth buying. Manufactured pop-tarts and cRap artists aren't my bag. don't forget: boybands, cowboy hat models, play-by-number punk impersonators, emo dorks, and of course, American Idol, the pinnacle of American culture.

[Lil'freeper]

Then there's people like me who'd rather own the whole atom (a physical CD) and not just the electrons. When I do download, I tend to do it directly from the artists' sites to try them out. If I like it, I'll order the album... directly from the artists usually.

[American_Centurion]

Last line in the article says it all. The consumer was busy buying DVDs. A consumer who only wants one or maybe two songs from a CD AND also wants a certain movie on DVD will immediately notice that he gets 2+ hours of entertainment for $20 or he can get 15-20 mins of entertainment for $15. What does the smart consumer do?

CDs do not offer the bang for the buck that other sources of digital entertainment offer, that is why they're sales are declining.

[Dead Corpse]

Amerikan Idle. The bane of modern civilization.

My two fave bands right now are Otep and Seraphim Shock. You won't hear either played on a mainstream radio station.

[P-40]

directly from the artists usually.

That is the way I try and buy. It is usually cheaper and the artist gets more of the money.

[johnny33]

Not trying to be snippy, but read the article, it explains their methodology. It's pretty clever, actually.

No it isn't, since p2p is often the starting point of piracy. What about students that d/l music and then share it with their friends? How do you determine how many of those students would have bought the album? You wouldn't even know how many students there were that recieved a copy. To call a study like this empirical is silly. This is just a couple of Europeans trying to defend piracy.

[Terabitten]

I would imagine that simple polling would find a decent number for how much downloaded music is shared amongst friends. That number might not be 100% accurate, but it's a start point if nothing else.

[Terabitten]

Something I'd like to see is some numbers on how those downloaded songs are used. For instance, I know plenty of people who buy the cd, but download two or three songs they like onto their ipod because it's easier (for them) than ripping the whole cd. In that case, it's not any different than buying the album, but recording a tape for your car.

[steve-b]

What about students that d/l music and then share it with their friends?

It is equally easy for someone to buy the CD and make copies for their friends, so it shows up on both sides of the equation and cancels out (as a factor in determining the effect of downloading on CD sales).

[TommyDale]

MTV? I didn't know they even play videos any more.

I'll tell you the biggest problem: The corporate ownership of all the radio stations, and satellite radio. Almost all the programming is automated, and they rarely identify the artist or the song names. How are we supposed to know what to buy if they never identify their music or artists? Yet, the garbage is regularly identified, because the record companies have an agenda to push.

[TommyDale]

"...and of course, American Idol, the pinnacle of American culture."

Hey, hey! I'll have you know that I actually purchased both the Kellie Pickler CD and the Katherine McPhee CD. Not so much for their music, but because they are hot. LOL!