Evangelical leader sizes up GOP field, says Giuliani’s campaign is doomed

The Hill ^ | 16 February 2007 | Sam Youngman

[Torie]

Newt is totally unelectable, and if he were the nominee, it would be a landslide against him. Newt does not wear well. He comes off as loud and arrogant, and as a know it all, when it is plain he does not know it all. Bill Clinton had him for lunch.

Barney Frank had Newt's number. He said Newt was a guy that was in love with the idea of having an idea.

As for myself, I question Newt's judgment and emotional maturity. If there were a Dem that were half way acceptable (alas at the moment there is not, since Mark Warner is not running), I would cross party lines.

[Torie]

I just crunched him under my tires actually. :)

[deport]

Is Newt the next one to get thrown under the bus?

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LOL...... well don't know about that and not to sure how far out the bus travels..... some buses are local and traverse in a very limited area.

[onyx]

It's a rather silent thread right now --- stunned silent, I reckon.

[volunbeer]

"I am a born again Christian and would have a rough time going into the booth and voting for Rudy. I would take him over any of the democrats, but it would be an extremely hard vote to cast."

Ditto. He is the lesser of two evils compared to a democrat but I cannot stomach a GOP candidate who is pro-abortion.

[deport]

Newt is totally unelectable,

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I agree wholeheartedly. Barney maybe correct in that Newt is good for ideas but a lot of times the conceiver isn't a very good implementer. That's why I think he could help some campaign with ideas but he needs to be kept off the center stage.

[deport]

It's a rather silent thread right now --- stunned silent, I reckon.

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The bus is in the barn now.

[onyx]

FOTFLOL! For repairs or refueling?

[jonathanmo]

Good analysis. As the population in general becomes less interested in the "details" of politics, the populism you describe is a natural drift. It's easy to understand and "feel" for many people

[Dog Gone]

Newt has a voice that is too high-pitched and is somewhat nasal. And his mannerism is that he's a know-it-all.

Those don't set well with much of the public and that's before you even consider what he's saying.

Many conservatives, even to the right of me, consider him unelectable, so it must be true. I like to hear his thoughts. I don't always agree with them, but usually I do.

Regardless, I don't think he's getting into the race. Like Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh, he's got a good gig, and not much motivation to change that.

[don-o]

People do love to hate him for some reason.

I have never heard him deliver a full speech. Have mainly heard him on Hannity. He sounds to me like a professor(which he was) lecturing. I don't know if that might have something to do with his negatives.

[doc30]

Christians that are willing to let a liberal Democrat win because the Republican does not agree with them on some social issues, I think have an exaggerated view of their own importance. Moreover, whatever is lost to that cohort will be more than made up elsewhere. They may think they have a winning hand, but they do not.

Agreed. Shifting everything to the extreme of any base alienates more people who are not extreme. I'd rather have a small government, fiscal conservative who is not very socially conservative than a socially conservative who is liberal everywhere else. Being socislly conservative does not translate into actually changing the country into one which is more socially conservative. There is little a president can do, besides sound off from the bully pulpit, on abortion, gun laws and gay marriage. The president does have control over budgets, immigration, and defense, wherer I think the issues are. Social conservatism is important, but the fiscal and small government trump social values to me.

[Mia T]

Interesting analysis.

Taking your analysis one step further, one can argue that there exists one R--Giuliani--and only Giuliani-- who can overcome the GOP breakup and win.

As someone whose appeal transcends party, Giuliani will compensate for the loss of Rs with a pickup of Ds.

[Mia T]

I am a born again Christian and would have a rough time going into the booth and voting for Rudy. I would take him over any of the democrats, but it would be an extremely hard vote to cast.

Perhaps knowledge of the following will help to ease your difficulty and resolve any moral conflict:

WHY THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT MUST MOBILIZE AGAINST HILLARY:
CLINTON CONFLATES EVANGELICAL CHRISTIANS AND ISLAMO-FASCIST TERRORISTS


AFTERWORD: A Note to the Religious Right

[jla]

bump

[SLB]

Perhaps knowledge of the following will help to ease your difficulty and resolve any moral conflict:

Thanks. Good reading and listening. I have passed the link on.

[Ben Ficklin]

In reply 493 there is a link to an article stating that about 78% of the anticipated Christian vote turned out in 2000.

We can try to use that as a baseline. Knowing Bush's history as TX Governor and his campaigning statements and criticisms of him, the Christian voter turned out at 78%.

Now, in 2008, we can try to estimate what the percent turnout for Rudy would be by comparing his history as NY mayor, his campaign statements, and criticisms to Bush's in 2000.

As a skilled estimator, I say 68%. Looking at the current poll on FR, it might be lower.

[Mia T]

But what about my thesis, that Giuliani is the one R who would be able to offset the loss of Rs with a pickup of Ds?

[Ben Ficklin]

You are most definately correct, but will there be enough independents/moderate dems behind Rudy to offset a low turnout of the religious right and other right-fielders.

It is most critical in Florida where Bush fluked by in 2000. The polling from 10 days ago showed Rudy leading Hillary by 3 points with a margin of error of 3.8. Against McCain, she led by 3. I don't recall the exact numbers but she was about 15-25 up on Romney.