The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia - 2007 Update

The rRsing Sea Dragon in Asia Web Site ^ | 24 February 2007 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA - 2007 UPDATE By Jeff Head - Last Update: February 24, 2007 Throughout 2006 and into 2007 the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has continued its unprecedented modernization and buildup, adding two entirely new classes of major combatant warships to its inventory, along with the other twelve new classes they have been working on. Large numbers of new guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, fast attack craft, very modern and quiet diesel/electric attack submarines, nuclear attack submarines, nuclear ballistic missile submarines, logisitic support craft, amphibious assault craft, and the infrastructure and aircraft to support them are coming online and being trialed and tested at sea and in the air by the PLAN. The major new classes include the improved Type 054, or Ma'anshan guided missile frigates (FFG), called the Type 054A. These vessels represent a significant improvment of the first two frigates which had been launched and commissioned earlier. The craft appear to have a larger displacement and include a VLS system for their anti-air missiles. Two of these were built and launched in 2006 and the next two are nearing completion with a fifth and possibly a sixth already under construction. It is clear that these vessels will be produced in significant numbers, perhpas up to 25. Two new modern and stealthy, Type 054A guided-missile frigates were launched with the 3rd, 4th, and 5th building. More than twenty are projected. The second new class introduced by the PLAN in 2006 was the Type 071 LPD, amphibious assault vessel. Similar to the US San Antonio Landing Platform Dock (LPD), this vessel is a very modern addition to the PLAN Amphibious fleet. it is thought that another vessel of this class may well be constructed in 2007, perhaps more. Displacing over 20,000 tons and including a well-deck for smaller amphibious assault craft, the vessel is also armed with 4 CIWS and a dual purpose main gun. The potential for an anit-air craft missile system, either VLS or cannister mounted is also included. Two to four helocoptors for air assault will aslo be embarked on the large flight deck. A new, large LPD amphibious assault vessel, Type 071, was built and launched in 2006 by the PLAN. Another significant and telling development in 2006 deals with the Aircraft carrier Varyag that has been being worked on and refitted in the Dalian Shipyards for the last three years. In 2006 the Chinese announced a deal with the Russians to acquire up to fifty SU-33 aircraft, which are the navalized and carrier capable versions of the Russian SU-27 aircraft (also in service with the Peeople's Republic. These are the same aircraft employed on the Russian carrier, Kuznetsov, which is the sister ship to the Varyag that, as mentioned, is now in the Chinese naval shipyard. In addition, the zinc chromate covering, which is a primer for a non-skid surface for aircraft on a carrier deck, has now been painted over with what appears to be a final dark grey non-skid surface. Both of these development are clear indications that the PLAN intends to launch and commission the Varyag as an operational Chinese carrier, probably within the next 24-36 months. Also of particular note the PLAN took possesion of two improved Sovremenny class destroyers purchased from the Russians. These vessels represent the most modern upgrades to the Sovremenny class vessels available and were built entirely new, specifically for the PLAN. The Sovremenny class destroyers were designed by the Russians to operate in conjunction with other naval and air assets to locate and destroy super carriers such as those deployed by the US Navy. Two new, improved Project 956, Hangzhou guided-missile destroyers been delivered to the PLAN, bringng to four the number of these carrier hunters in service. Finally, the PLAN commissioned a second new class replenishment ship, the Weishanhu 887, which is the second in the Qiandaohu class. The Qiandaohu 886 was commissioned in 2005. These represent new fleet replenshiment vessels that now join the four other replenishment vessels the PLAN has. The new ship conducted port visits with Chinese DDGs to Pakistan and India in 2006 and this represents a continued move on the PLAN's part toward blue water operations. The new fleet replenishment vessel, the Weishanhu 887, was commissioned and joined the Qiandaohu 886 in 2006 and was promptly sent on port calls in the same year. More and more Stealth FAC Type 022s were being built throughout 2006 at multiple shipyards. It is not known exactly how many of these advanced, fast, and stealthy catamaran missile boats have been built, but estimates now range up well over twenty and perhaps as many as thirty. It is estimated that as many as 100 will be built. Many more stealth catamaran FACs were built during 2006. In addition, the many other vessels and aircraft spoken of from this site's 2006 PLAN Update, continue to be integrated into PLAN operations ... By way of reference, in general numbers, over the last five to six years, the PLAN has built and launched over 80 new major surface combatants for its fleet. In that same time period, they have not decommissioned any major surface combatants, meaning they have added 80 major surface combatant vessels to their inventory. In that same period, the US Navy has built 46 new major surface combatants. At the same time, the US Navy has decommissioned 49 major surface combatants, many of them with 10-15 years of service life remaining, meaning a net loss of three major surface combatants in this period. Clearly the trend shows that the PLAN is rapidly closing the gap between itself and the US Navy, and particualrly when focusing on the Western Pacific, which is where the PLAN is concentrated, this is a trend worthy of watching and considering in future US Navy and other western nation's planning and acquisition schedules.

[Jeff Head]

For all those interested and who have been following my work regarding the PLAN.

[Jeff Head]

FYI

[Oztrich Boy]

Speaking for those on the other thread

"it's only a model"

[RobFromGa]

bump to your interesting thread Jeff.

Hope you are well!

[Jeff Head]

FYI...more info for the threat matrix.

[ClearCase_guy]

Thanks. I wish the US were more eager to spend money on next-generation surface ships. We're gonna need them, but they take years to design and build. The first DDG-1000 Destroyer is supposed to hit the water in 2012, last I heard. That seems far away, but what can you do?

[editor-surveyor]

Thanks for the ping. When do you sleep?

[Jet Jaguar]

.

[Jeff Head]

Thank you my friend. I am well. The Head Clan is prospering and doing alright. The good Lord is smiling upon us...despite whatever hardships and travail we may otherwise face.

The ongoing buildup of the red Chinese Navy continues to trouble me.

[Jeff Head]

Add to that that they are cutting back the total number of DDX vessels to twelve, or as few as eight...and the concern grows. No matter how good they will be, and I have no doubts that they will be good...eight total ships means only 4-6 are deployed at any one time and that few can only cover so many bases.

Continue to write and raise cain with your reps...speak to others and have them do the same. Educate and make others aware. A whole lot of us need to be doing that if we are to make any difference short of abject disasters befalling us and then forcing the change in attitude.

[Jeff Head]

hehehe...not enough.

[gas0linealley]

What about names?

Have the Chinese named a warship the "Walmart" yet?

[Jeff Head]

The new frigates are the Ma'anshan class and each will be individually named. Carrier has no official name yet, the LPD has no official name yet. The purchased Russian destroyers are the Hangzhou class and each is individually named. Names are given for the replinishment class.

The other destroyers and major ships are also named.

The FACs, to my knowledge have not been named and are only numbered to this point.

As to Walmart...well, the point is well taken, among other trade activities, our dollars are funding this buildup in a large way.

[Non-Sequitur]

bump

[bws53]

It's not Wal-Mart or other retailers that are the problem, per se. The problem is the manufacturers and researchers - Motorola, Intel, Cisco, IBM, Agere, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft, GE, Boeing, and many others.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

BTTT!

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

Just another trading partner. Nothing to see here...

[Jeff Head]

All of what you say is true...but they still enjoy profits from our dollars for the many products produced over there...that adds to the whole.

[Strategerist]

Thanks. I wish the US were more eager to spend money on next-generation surface ships. We're gonna need them, but they take years to design and build. The first DDG-1000 Destroyer is supposed to hit the water in 2012, last I heard. That seems far away, but what can you do?

We're still cranking out DDG-51s and they're superior to anything China has now or building.

[Jeff Head]

Yes we are...and they are awesome. I thank God each day that they are out there. The latest flight Burkes have the CIWS and the Harpoons removed (when they added the helo hangar, they removed the harpoons from the aft deck). They carry the Standards, the helos, the dual purpose gun, the torpedo tubes, and the Tomohawks. As I understand it, some vessels are getting launch cannisters for the ESSM (Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile) now in place of the CIWS.

[Jeff Head]

However, having said that, in a one on one engagement, the PLAN sovs, the new 52B and 52C destroyers are going to be a serious threat. No Burke captain would take them lightly.

[hosepipe]

Wonder how many of these craft one Attack sub could sink in one well planned night.. followed by one F-22 at dawn to mop up any leftovers and photograph the remains..

Could be massive waste of excess American bucks..
Is that a good thing wasting capitalist capital?.. d;-)

[Alamo-Girl]

Buump!

[Jeff Head]

I do ont know. If the action were within the more confined waters of the china Sea where the PLAN diesel/electrics ar elocated and where their ASW capabilities are stronger...I would not say it would be so easy.

At this point, on the high seas, our ADCAP LA class boats, the Virginias and particularly the Sea Wolfs would raise cain with them for sure.

...and, if it were on the high seas, unless within range of Okinawa, make it an F-16 superhornet doing the mom-up and photography.

Just the same, as they produce more and more modern warships and subs, we would be foolish to underestimate them...particularly as we continue to dwaddle right at or under three hundred ships in our navy.

[hosepipe]

Actually ANY Navy even ours seems to be at immense risk with modern military tools.. especially air tools.. Serious stealth Predator(s) would/should be unerving to any Navy.. If it/they carried internally held ship to ships that were also stealth..

Big navys except for politics and logistics might be a WWII concept.. Could be China is working on WWII Strategy.. Moving a huge Army or Navy with satellites watching now would not be easy..

[WilliamofCarmichael]

As the PLA modernizes hundreds of thousands in the land forces are being let go. An estimated one-and-a-half-million so far.

They join the estimated 100 million to 200 million in the "floating population" of unemployed plus millions more of acknowledged people in the unemployment line.

The rural population estimated at 800 million is more restless than ever as corruption dominates and income disparity grows. Pollution is killing hundreds of thousands every year.

Rural residents are facing eviction as the "dam happy" Chinese build more and bigger. Rural residents head to the cities only to be treated with disfavor. Industrial deaths occur at a rate of more than 100,000 each year.

There are nearly 100,000 clashes between citizens and authorities each year. A radio report (here in the U.S.) the other day stated that a PLA warehouse was raided and all contents of weapons, etc. were carried off.

The "iron rice bowl" is no more. Tens of millions more face lay-offs from the thousands of worthless government owned enterprises that are a huge drain on resources just to keep the millions "employed."

New Democrat Third Way progressives and mainline Republican "free traders" want to raise everyone's boat. China has some really big boats and it's our progressives and "free traders" that are keeping them afloat.

I know why the progressives are doing it: ideology; and Lenin knew why the Republican "free traders" are doing it: they are useful idiots.

[sasportas]

You must be a zoomie. Who was it? Air Force General Spaatz that said, "who needs a Navy?" The zoomies are a conceited bunch. On the need for a Navy, Spaatz has been proven wrong time and time again.

[hosepipe]

I'm ex-Navy.. Squid..

[Stonewall Jackson]

When those Chinese decide to build a fleet, they sure don't mess around.

From this update, it looks like they will have a decent start on a blue-water navy by 2009-10 and if they continue on this production rate, they will have a massive fleet by 2015-16.

The continuing buildup of their fleet, the modernization of their army and air force, and their new ability to neutralize satellites from the ground could combine into making China a very serious threat in the next decade.

I sometimes feel like Billy Mitchell, who, in 1924, knew deep down in his gut that the Japanese were going to attack the US. The Chinese don't need this large of a fleet to capture Taiwan (they have enough fifth-columists on Taiwan and so many missiles aimed at the island that they will likely knock out half to two-thirds of its defenses before the first Chinese transport leaves port); the Russian Pacific Fleet is a pathetic shadow of its former self; none of the Southeast Asian nations have naval forces that can begin to stand up against the Chinese India might be considered a moderate threat against the Chinese, but the Indian Navy is mostly defensive and lacks the ability to take the fight to the Chinese territorial waters; Japan, too, might be considered a threat, but most of their surface fleet consists of destroyers and frigates that are primarily defensive in nature, their submarines might be a threat against China, but the PLAN already has a fairly effective ASW program in place. Once you take all of these countries out of the equation, the only other logical opponent that the Chinese might he building up their forces to face is the United States.

We need to begin a massive naval construction program in the next few years if we want to have any chance of facing the Chinese on an equal footing. Otherwise we will end up like we were in 1941-42, fighting a defensive war while our shipyards scramble to produce the ships we need to take the fight to the enemy. Only this time, the enemy will have a capability of hitting us on our own soil, using sub-launched cruise missiles to hit our shipyards and repair facilities.

Beijing has studied the history of the United States and they know us almost as well as we know ourselves. They know our strengths (our vast natural resources and our massive industrial capabilities) and they know our weaknesses (our inability to truly see the evil in some men and our short tolerance for a costly war). They know that if they go to war with the United States, it will be a fight to the finish, with no quarter asked and none given. The frightening truth of the matter is that they appear to have weighed all of these risks and have decided to continue with their plans.

[tarheelswamprat]

Speaking for those on the other thread

"it's only a model"

Yes, but these models really do represent a threat, unlike those "global-warming models" our media keeps touting. /grin

[Jeff Head]

Well, I agreew with most all of what you have said. But, the Japanese Navy (their Japanese Maritime self Defense force) is very credible and represents the second strongest destroyer navy in the world, second only to the US. They are a serious threat to the PLAN. South Korea also has a very potent and modern force, smaller than the Japanese, but very modern and capable...if they have the will to use it.

My concern is that we are slowing our build rate and that we have only a couple or three yards that can build our major combatants (carriers, destroyers, amphibs, etc.).

We have decent designs coming up on the ways...but our ability to produce them quickly is seriously eroded...they yards simply do not exist...and our ability to produce them at all is jeopardized.

Anyhow, this is why I have that site, and also why I wrote my:

Dragon's Fury Series of Books.

If you are interested, the entire series is available to all Freepers as a free download in a professionaly done Adobe eBook --> HERE.

[Jeff Head]

Oztrich Boy doesn't tag sarcasm, he says so right on his FR page...and I believe he was being that way. hehehe.

[tarheelswamprat]

Yes, I knew it was in fun! The underlying reality is serious, though, so thanks for the timely update.

[Stonewall Jackson]

I agree that the Japanese and South Koreans do have the ability to cause the Chinese Navy significant damage, but I'm not sure if they have the political will to do so until it is too late.

Most of the destroyers and frigates in the Japanese MSDF carry the Harpoon or Type 88/90 ASMs, the Japanese government refused to allow the deployment of Tomahawk cruise missiles on any of their warships. Since the effective range of the Harpoons and Type 88/90's is approximately the same as most missiles deployed by the Chinese (but shorter than the range of the 9M80E extended-range version of the SS-N-22 Sunburn that the Chinese bought for their Sovremennyy destroyers), this would put the Japanese warships in harm's way.

Still, it is interesting to wonder how the Japanese would fare in a modern fight against the Chinese. I might have to sit down and write that one out.

Thanks for the discussion. Good night.

[grey_whiskers]

Both of you might be interested in my recent vanity on China.

Cheers!

[Jeff Head]

You are welcome.

You know that the anti-ship version of the Tomahawk was pulled long ago from our combatants. They are all Land Attack missiles now. The latest Burkes do not even carry Harpoons.

At least we still have the carriers and their long "reach" with the air wings.

[Stonewall Jackson]

You have got to be kidding!!!

[RunningWolf]

Jeff I understand what you are saying.

However, there could be several forward looking apparent/not apparent considerations that affect what we see at the the present.

[Dundee]

There are some interesting projects (both Australian and joint Aus/US) going on down here which should greatly improve our naval capabilities. Nulka, Mk-48 CBASS, and CEAMOUNT/CEAFAR are just the tip of the ice burg.

That said, both the RAN and the USN need to double the size of their fleets.

[Jeff Head]

Nope. And they have retired the S-3 Viking and their ASW capability from the carriers...with no replacement.

The Spruance destroyers, among the quietest most effective ASW platforms we had have all benn decommissioned, many of them with 10-15 years service life left. A large part of them have been sunk in live fire exercises. IMHO it is a sad day when you see sites like these...

We have sunk nineteen of the class to date.

Spruance DD 963 - class disposition

Ship's Name	Hull Number	Homeport / Status
SPRUANCE	DD 963	decommissioned, sunk as target
PAUL F. FOSTER	DD 964	decommissioned
KINKAID	DD 965	decommissioned, sunk as target
HEWITT	DD 966	decommissioned, scrapped
ELLIOT	DD 967	decommissioned, sunk as target
ARTHUR W. RADFORD	DD 968	decommissioned
PETERSON	DD 969	decommissioned, sunk as target
CARON	DD 970	decommissioned, sunk during tests
DAVID R. RAY	DD 971	decommissioned
OLDENDORF	DD 972	decommissioned, sunk as target
JOHN YOUNG	DD 973	decommissioned, sunk as target
COMTE DE GRASSE	DD 974	decommissioned, sunk as target
O'BRIEN	DD 975	decommissioned, sunk as target
MERRILL	DD 976	decommissioned, sunk as target
BRISCOE	DD 977	decommissioned, sunk as target
STUMP	DD 978	decommissioned, sunk as target
CONOLLY	DD 979	decommissioned
MOOSBRUGGER	DD 980	decommissioned, scrapped
JOHN HANCOCK	DD 981	decommissioned, scrapped
NICHOLSON	DD 982	decommissioned, sunk as target
JOHN RODGERS	DD 983	decommissioned, scrapped
LEFTWICH	DD 984	decommissioned, sunk as target
CUSHING	DD 985	decommissioned
HARRY W. HILL	DD 986	decommissioned, sunk as target
O'BANNON	DD 987	decommissioned
THORN	DD 988	decommissioned, sunk as target
DEYO	DD 989	decommissioned, sunk as target
INGERSOLL	DD 990	decommissioned, sunk as target
FIFE	DD 991	decommissioned, sunk as target
FLETCHER	DD 992	decommissioned
HAYLER	DD 997	decommissioned, sunk as target

[Jeff Head]

Agreed on both counts...great projects out there, and the need for larger fleets.

[Jeff Head]

No doubt that there are...but I personally believe that you can also reach a point in both numbers of vessels and your ability to produce more if need be, where you skate on thin ice.

I believe we are getting close to that point, even given our build schedule. I just believe 313 ships (or whatever the latest target is), is too small a number given the current build rate and the growth rate of the Chinese.

...and we are having to build back up to get to that number.

[WilliamofCarmichael]

Excellent! Thanks for the link.

America has been through a lot just in my lifetime. A world war, "wars of liberation" around the Globe, attempts to start civil war / revolution here, recession, stagnation, inflation, stagflation, the loss of one of our great traditional political parties to the 1960s New Left Rats, actual traitors at the highest level of government.. lots more.

We can easily (more or less) handle the cut off of trade with Red China, they would be destroyed.

[Non-Sequitur]

We need to begin a massive naval construction program in the next few years if we want to have any chance of facing the Chinese on an equal footing.

Dream on, for several reasons. One, no money. Iraq is sucking up every spare dollar the military has and ever additional dollar they can pry out of Congress. Major weapons platforms like the P-7 and the LCS are being cut back or cancelled. Carriers and amphibious ships are being deployed on a much faster schedule, cutting back on maintenance time. Which isn't that big an issue short term since maintenance dollars are being directed towards Iraq anyway. So not only do you not have the money for new ships, you're wearing out the ones you have at a greater rate. Two, it's impossible. You have two sources for all your surface ships destroyer sized or larger, one source for carriers, two sources for nuclear submarines. They don't have the manpower or the space for any more work than they have now. So increasing your output isn't practical. If we're going to bring additional platforms to bear on China then we're stuck with what we have. The only option is to shift units from the Atlantic Fleet to the Pacific so they're closer.

[Jeff Head]

The biggest difference right now between our naval building program and the chinese can be characterized by two simple things:

1) They have the capacity right now to build new classes at multiple shipyards simultaneously, putting out 2 and 4 new vessels in each class and can work on eight to ten new classes at a time in this fashion. We have limited ourselves to very few active shipyards where producing one or two new vessels of a particular class a year is stretching us...and then working on only two-three classes at a time.

2) They continue building and refining what they have...we are decommissioning vessels many other nations would love to have, with 10-15 years service life left on them...and then not keeping them available at all in the event of a crisis...but instead, sinking them.

Here's a graphical representation:

PLAN Naval Buildup (two to four ships at a time) vs. US Naval buildup (sinking our own).

One day, it may well catch up with us and it will be ugly. My Dad, a World War II Navy combat vet of the PTO, told me many times before he passed away in 2004 that it reminded him of the pre-World War II days.

[Eastbound]

Thanks for the ping, Jeff!

Best -- Dave

[philetus]

Nothing to worry about Jeff. They are just building all the WAR ships because they needed something for everybody to do.
They are our bestest, sweetest allies.

[WilliamofCarmichael]

Wow! The Chi-Coms started with small backyard steel furnaces in every commune and urban neighbourhood making steel out of scrap metal (pots and pans and such) and fueled by denuded trees and wood taken from the doors and furniture of peasants' houses!

In only a few years they developed that into the technology to build modern ships.. wow!

Wot?

Billions and billions of dollars from western FDI? Western intellectual property? Western technology? Western equipment? "Free traders?" DNC? DNC.. what's that?

[jim macomber]

Fascinating stuff, Jeff. I can't watch the news coming out of China, Iran, and elsewhere without thinking of the prescience and accuracy of your Dragon's Fury novels.

[Jeff Head]

It is amazing, phenominal, what we are doing in the face of China's rise to power...both militarily and economically. Ands one day, it is going to come back to haunt us.