Oh the hugh manatee!
Posted on 02/27/2007 12:03:41 PM PST by cgk
Edited on 02/27/2007 3:25:19 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
If you watched any of the live coverage...you will notice the lack of frenetic activity on the NYSE trading floor. The firms have been laying off floor traders for a while in favor of "computerization"
That is why they do that up close shot now, and not the shot from the 2nd floor to the trading floor....if they did it the old way it would look empty.
The 52-week range for the Dow is 10,653.23 to 12,845.76. So, the Dow closed down 416 at 12,216, which is just 630 off its 52-week high of 12,846. While a 4.9% drop in one day is not exactly chump change, it is also not a reason to panic when you consider the volatility of equity markets. When the Dow recovers those 400 points over the next few weeks and busts past 12,900 do you suppose the same people who are wringing their hands today will be dancing naked in the streets and shouting "Happy Days are Here Again"?
If his remarks had any effect they were just piling on.
Shooting the messenger doesn't do any good. The business cycle has not been revoked (despite all the statements to the contrary in the 90s). You need to ask yourself how many times has the Fed increased rates too much and/or not lowered them fast enough resulting in a recession?
For any student of the Fed, and it is insanity to either fight the Fed or to ignore it and whistle past the graveyard, the answer is that there will be a dip in the economy in the future.
Of course the devil is in the details and predicting when that will happen sort of puts a point on it. I always try to sell early and buy late; pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered and all that.
Far better to walk in the footsteps of giants than to be squished.
My bad; the drop of 416 doesn't represent a 4.9% drop, but rather a 3.3% drop. Today's close is 4.9% off of the 52-week high position.
I sold my shares of Bunge today because the fundamentals changed. Soybean crush spreads dropped 13%. Something is afoot in the commodity markets.
What was also odd is that I sold part of my position when the stock was trading at 78.xx
However, I got 81.xx for my shares.
A happy conclusion for me, but very strange.
"Happy Days are Here Again"
I hope not. That was a popular song during the Great Depression, just like "We're in the Money".
I don't think so....Cheney was fine...and everyone knew that when the Stock market opened.
bump.
You should read Warren Buffett's book. This is when you buy.
I've read Ben Graham's book twice. But you might want to look into the bio of William Durant
Isn't THAT the truth!
However, I got 81.xx for my shares.
That was probably just the noise that brokers had to balance out to cover hillary's 10,000% gain on cattle futures while the market was tanking. She read the Wall Street Journal once and learned how to be an options trading genius.
Im also the recipient of oil and gas revenue...A while back I thought I could relax and be rich , but my income is down again(dont know about this month) ...The oil business is not for sissies
I'm not so sure . . . Quite plausible. But I don't think this week. Nor the next. One friend keeps "hearing" repeatedly: "Mar 20, Mar 20!"
Part of me thinks they are trying to keep a lid on things for the present.
Not sure why.
Maybe their bunkers in NZ aren't lavishly furnished sufficiently yet.
Maybe, maybe not. You buy whenever the market is undervalued. While there maybe individual stocks that are undervalued in today's market, I don't consider a 4.9% discount off a 52 week high to be any kind of a bargain.
A lot of damage has been done to stocks (especially the more speculative stocks) across the board here. I don't like what I see in the commodity markets. They were driving much of the rally in the US, but behind the commodity rally was an expansion in emerging markets economies.
Now I see a flight to liquidity and flight to quality happening. Even gold got smacked hard today, but US Treasuries, Yen, and S Fr. were flying today.
I think we could see significant downside ahead.
Hi Darkwolf--good questions.
"What does this mean in terms of our short- and longterm economy?"
Nothing. The market reflects what people THINK will happen in the future, not what IS. The market value represents the value of what the stock has earned plus what the market anticipates will happen. A big drop means investors think Greenspan may be right and recession is around the corner.
"What does this mean in conjunction with the news about housing sales and consumer confidence?"
Housing sales are down due to higher interest rates. Consumer confidence is an emotional reaction to what the consumers think will happen. It can predict future consumer spending.
"In short, what does this MEAN to Americans, and what are the folks doing the selling thinking?"
That the markets will dump by the end of the year and it's best to get out now.
At least the sellers think that. The buyers think they have a bargain.
Oh the hugh manatee!
The Buffett suggestion wasn't mine. I was responding to it. I'm a firm believer in knowing where the bottom is located is just as important as knowing where the top might be -- so far we don't know where the bottom is. We've had a one day plunge and nobody knows what happens tomorrow.
I'm starting to wish Greenspan would shut his mouth.
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