Posted on 02/28/2007 6:15:01 PM PST by shrinkermd
Investors are breathing a sigh of relief as Wednesday's stock market rebound wiped away some of the pain inflicted by Tuesday's tumble. They would do well to stay very scared...
...The U.S. stock market, by far the world's largest, has been on a bull run for four years without a major pullback. While the S&P 500 is nowhere nearly as expensive as it was in the late 1990s, neither is it cheap at about 17.6 times the latest 12-months' earnings.
...The housing market, for one, is looking increasingly shaky. Defaults of subprime mortgages are already rising, and Wednesday's announcement of a 16.6% fall in new home sales in January represents the largest monthly drop in 13 years
...selling Chinese and other emerging market assets and converting them back into yen, which they'd borrowed at low interest rates. Demand for the Japanese currency would in turn put selling pressure on the dollar and U.S. assets
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
Neil Wineberg == Chicken Little.
Everyone take a deep breath it's going to be ok.
If this is the new and improved global economy, give me back the old one...
I'm in for the long-term. No fear here.
I like corrections...it gives me a chance to get good equity bargains. If the Dow gets to 11,000 I think I'll move futher off cash and Bond position.
I like corrections...it gives me a chance to get good equity bargains. If the Dow gets to 11,000 I think I'll move futher off cash and Bond position.
"Be Very Scared (Stock Market)"
OPINION: Nope -- just look for bargain purchases.
Boy, that is scarey!
Brother, what a pussy, ride it out and get rich is my mantra.
If so many of the investors weren't such a herd, we wouldn't have anything to be afraid of. Face it. The US dollar must fall and equalize somewhat in the international markets, and something needs to be done about Iran. We could get through that easily enough, if it weren't for so many hysterical cows.
Let it ride!
A dollar is worth something if one "trusts" in illusions.
I think the gold standard is forcing its way back!
One thing that bothers me is that we have gone 47 months without a 10% correction, the second longest period in the history of the market.
And the 3% plunge on Tuesday was not precipitated by any single piece of bad news, but just some rumblings that things are not quite right, helped along by the 9% drop in the incredibly overbought Chinese market.
It's a fact that corporate earnings growth is slowing considerably this year. We will be very lucky to have an average of 10%, compared to 17% last year and this is also the fifth full year of the current bull market. Very few last that long without a major correction.
I think the wild card is Iran and the effect that a new war would have on energy prices.
A barrel of oil costing $100 would bring this slowing economy to a grinding stop in a hurry.
Selling short, huh, Wineberg?
Not sure where this "bull market" stuff comes from.
Good opportunity to buy.
Real estate? Needs to get real.
"Conclusion: "With yields on junk bonds now little higher than those for U.S. treasuries, $1.5 trillion in hedge fund money sloshing unregulated around the globe and derivatives markets linking it all together in ways nobody fully understands, one thing is for certain: A serious bout of bear market pain could spread far and fast--leaving very few investors unscathed. "
Or not!
It is quite possible that a NASDAQ record will not happen in most of our lifetimes.
It is quite possible that a NASDAQ record will not happen in most of our lifetimes.
Neil Wineberg == Short selling monkey boy
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.