I suppose we are both better off than Ernest:
Posted on 02/28/2007 6:15:01 PM PST by shrinkermd
You'd think folks who are supposed to be smart wouldn't encourage others to make major decisions based on one month's data. Has he looked into WHY there was a fall in new home sales in January? Could it possibly be that there was absolutely LOUSY weather in large areas of the country during the month? Folks may not have wanted to go out in a blizzard or an ice storm to look at homes, and builders may have been delayed in FINISHING some homes, because of that weather. Did he note that there was actually a RISE in sales in December because of the unusually MILD weather?
You didn't click the link.
Cede and Co. flipped the notes to:
AES CHINA GENERATING CO. LTD.
That was my response to the poster who asked why China was concerned about the housing market.
Re-read the housing part of the article. He was looking at more than a decade of numbers. We've had lousy winters before and certainly lousy winters over a decade.
The Chinese hold 1 trillion dollars. If we go into recession, if the dollar declines (and it has and will continue) they will loose an enormous amount of money. The US market which buys their products will also drop significantly and thus not fund their expansion.
Ditto. I folded my investments into a single annuity years ago. It gives me a guaranteed ROI above inflation annually OR an ROI tied to a major stock index (the S&P 500, in my case), whichever is higher at year's end. Essentially, I'm gambling that the S&P 500 will increase in value over the next 25 years... which in my opinion is a fairly safe bet.
Exactly. What will stop the Chinese from cutting their losses? I think they will dump dollars big time. The only thing more important to the Commies than their economy is our defeat, financially or militarily.
They don't have to worry about their voters because they have none.
The Chinese are already looking towards Europe and Africa as viable markets for their goods.
17.6 P/E means that you're essentially getting about a 5.5 percent return on your investment if profits never go up. But the usual rule of thumb is profits go up about 5 percent a year. 5.5 this year with a five percent increase in subsequent years is better than any bond deal you're going to get.
I don't see how this market is overvalued at this level, although I fully concede that mob psychology has made the market overvalued in the past and is likely to do so in the future.
My bigger fear is that a little understood Derivitive play went sour for one of the Reserve Banks at 3:00 eastern, and that in fact was what set up the loss of 178 points in 60 seconds. Cramer referred to this yesterday, but only tangentially. He demurred, saying he "understands from a friend on the inside." What the hell does that mean? This is a great unknown, poorly understood, and completely unregulated part of the financial industry which could be the biggest bugabear under the bed.
TOKYO, March 1 (Reuters) - The Nikkei average slid 1.15 percent on Thursday morning, extending losses from the previous session's sell-off, as investors continued to unload exporters such as Kyocera Corp. (6971.T: Quote, NEWS , Research) and Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.T: Quote, NEWS , Research) due to concern about U.S. economic growth.
Shares of Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd. (6764.T: Quote, NEWS , Research) jumped 6.2 percent to 189 yen after Kyodo news agency said on Thursday that Japan's securities watchdog had decided not to file a criminal complaint against the company or recommend that it be fined. [ID:nT303544]
Investors were taking a cautious tack after U.S. stocks on Wednesday failed to make a strong rebound from the previous session's rout.
"Wall Street bounced back, but not as much as investors had hoped," said Renji Motohashi, general manager of the...
TOKYO, March 1 (Reuters) - The dollar recovered from a 10-week low against yen on Thursday following a rebound U.S. stocks the previous session as investors felt the sharp sell-off in risky assets this week may have run its course.
Comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke the previous day that it is "reasonable" to expect stronger growth later in the year also gave support to the U.S. currency despite a spate of weak economic data.
The yen surged on Tuesday as a shakeout in stock markets around the world prompted investors to reverse some of their big short positions in the low-yielding Japanese currency, driving the yen up for its largest one-day gain in 14 months.
"With the fall in U.S.stocks stopping and credit spread shrinking, we see risk asset markets started to stabilise. Bernanke's comments also gave some confidence to the market, " said Koji Fukaya, a senior currency strategist at Deutsche Bank in Tokyo
When they flee the dollar, bad things will come. I think they will flee the dollar as quickly as they can. It may be hard to calculate and if they miscalculate the dollar could go down in a death spiral. Isn't interconnectedness and the global economy wonderful? If the dollar really, really dives, the American way of life will take on a completely new look. I once read an article called, "The Europeanization of America". That was 25 years ago. It sure is starting to sound familiar.
When they flee the dollar, bad things will come. I think they will flee the dollar as quickly as they can. It may be hard to calculate and if they miscalculate the dollar could go down in a death spiral. Isn't interconnectedness and the global economy wonderful? If the dollar really, really dives, the American way of life will take on a completely new look. I once read an article called, "The Europeanization of America". That was 25 years ago. It sure is starting to sound familiar.
>> This might have something to do with it. They bought our notes. The notes have to be paid back with gold backed funds.
I searched the blog entry you linked in your post. The only mention of "gold" was "Golden St" in someone's address.
Am I missing something here? What do you mean by, "they have to be paid back with gold backed funds"?
Isn't interconnectedness and the global economy wonderful?
I know a lot of folks who are thriving in it. Making more money than they thought possible. They saw an opportunity and went for it. Most folks do the same old, same old and expect nothing to change. I suppose they believe that someone, somewhere will look after them.
The U.S. has an internalized economy. That means that imports and exports combine to make up a minority of our economy, which in turn means that a fall in our currency won't reduce our lifestyle.
However, the same can't be said for export-oriented economies (e.g. China, Germany, etc.). Falls in the U.S. Dollar mean that exports from China/Germany become more expensive to their largest Market (ie. the U.S.).
That further means that Americans will buy fewer imports.
This is *not* a bad thing for the U.S. economy, by the way. Lowering the Dollar would spur, not drag, our own economy.
I suppose we are both better off than Ernest:
China stops buying our debt then we have to raise interest rates to attract buyers.
What is the connection to new home starts in the US and the Chinese economy?
We don't buy wood from them...yet.
That was separate stipulations per each account agreement I found in searches.
I did random searches for 'Cede & Co' plus towns, counties, etc and read the fine print of random accounts. The actual wording was Global Note. Global Notes are asset backed. Each agreement determines what those assets are. I saw some say gold. I don't want to say what others said.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.