Posted on 02/28/2007 6:15:01 PM PST by shrinkermd
I hope you're a young'n, for your sake. Remember the wisdom of JM Keynes: "The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent."
Me too. I'll be back in puts, big time.
That's like saying "Compared to 1923 Germany, 20% inflation is really low." True, but trivial.
BTTT
Easy. It comes from people who want to sell you stocks, and from people desperately looking for a greater fool, upon whom to unload their dogs. They have a few live prospects right here, it looks like, and these suckers are the traders' lawful prey.
Nah, Neil Wineberg = columnist with short positions in lots of stocks.
Actually, that link, http://justwhatithink.com/blog/index.php?y=2006&m=10&d=5 did define the payment as 'global notes':
The Notes shall be issued initially in the form of a single permanent global note in fully registered form without interest coupons substantially in the form of Exhibit A with such legends as may be applicable thereto, only in denominations of $1,000 and integral multiples thereof (the "Global Note"), deposited with the Trustee as custodian for the Depositary and registered in the name of Cede & Co., as nominee of the Depositary, duly executed by the Company and authenticated by the Trustee as hereinafter provided. The Global Note shall bear such legend as may be required or reasonably requested by the Depositary.
The definitive Notes shall be typed, printed, lithographed or engraved or produced by any combination of these methods or may be produced in any other manner permitted by the rules of any securities exchange on which the Notes may be listed, all as determined by the officers executing such Notes, as evidenced by their execution of such Notes.
Run, Run!
.Well said. The Oracle at Delphi advised, Know thyself.
I hope you're still opening your monthly statements a year from now.
Trivial.
If China stops buying our debt...or sells its existing U.S. debt holdings, then the U.S. Dollar falls. That falling Dollar makes Chinese exports more expensive to U.S. customers, who then buy fewer Chinese goods and more U.S. goods.
In turn, that creates more U.S. prosperity, driving up tax revenues, making new debt more scarce.
Since new debt would be more scarce, supply v demand states that price would go up.
Since debt yields are inverse to debt pricing, higher prices for debt in turn means lower U.S. interest rates.
"Neil Wineberg = Short selling monkey boy"
I was thinking about easing back in as it goes down, but keeping my have to have money in safe stuff. I'm figuring over 10 years (20 if I can keep working) before I even look at needing it.
You have bought into the Wall Street myth that as long as stocks aren't over priced at bubble levels, they will continue to rise. The fact is, we need to think about "bears," not "corrections." "Correction" is stock-broker crapola for "I gotta sell and get out of this oncoming bear market at the first dead cat bounce." Of course, he won't tell YOU that, just his family.
"Be very scared" - Do not be scared [as to get scared is useless anyway]. Rather, try to keep a level head and do not let either market manic, or depressive, states get to you.
people keep throwing this we haven't had a 10% correction crap about and it's just not true, you don't remember this summer when the world was going to end?
The Dow corrected a little over 9% from mid May to mid June,the NAS a little over 15% and the S&P a little over 8%
What, because the DOW didn't hit the magic 10% number it doesn't count?
Baloney
jJust as the stock market has corrections from time to time, the housing market does the same thing. It's just that it happens in different areas at different times. There are areas that are growing while other areas are shrinking.
Economic cycles come and go. No use folks getting their knickers in a twist over them.
This is true -- it's also true a lot of people get very rich during down cycles. On the other hand, even more folks get taken to the cleaners.
[I don't want to say what others said. ]
Now you've got us all curious. What did they say?
According to my charts, I get an 8% correction in the Dow from mid-May to its low point on June 13th, but you have a point. That was a pretty sizeable drop in just about a month's time. It wasn't 10%, but it was significant.
I think we're heading for a 6-10% drop before moving back up. I'm positioning my portfolio accordingly, and keeping an eye on the depth of this current slowdown in the economy. If housing goes even deeper into the ground, and something also happens in the world (Iran?) to cause oil to skyrocket, we're in trouble here in this current market environment. You're going to see a whole lot of selling in a hurry.
The problem for individual investors like myself is that the big institutions start selling their millions of shares, and the whole downturn just starts accelerating. People right now don't want to sit there and watch their portfolios dropping day after day. I don't believe the average investor is well positioned in assets to handle that kind of a loss, unless they have a lot of equity in their home.
There aren't many investors willing to ride the roller coaster market down, like many did when tech disintegrated in 2000-02. They are nervous and ready to sell, no matter what their brokers are telling them.
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