The Chinese Navy (PLAN) is Transforming the VARYAG into an operational aircraft carrier

The Rising Sea Dragin in Asia Web Site ^ | March 3, 2007 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

HISTORY-TRANSFORMATION
In 1991, when the Soviet Union dissolved, the second full-size aircraft carrier for the Soviet Union, the Varyag-sister ship to the Kuznetsov, was under construction in the Ukraine. Withe the Soviet demise, the Ukraine inherited the incomplete vessel but did not have the finances to complete her. In 1992 a Chinese delegation visited the Ukraine in the hopes of coming to terms on a purchase price of the unfinished vessel. A suitable purchase price was not agreed upon. Later, in 1998, the Chong Lot Travel Agency, a supposed Maccu firm, bought the Varyag from the Ukraine for $20 million dollars with the stated intention of making the Varyag a casino for commercial profit. As it turned out, Chong Lot had no offices in Maccu and was simply a front company for a Hong Kong firm called Chinluck Holding Co. Ltd. As it also turned out, the managing directors of Chinluck, had strong ties to the Chinese navy. It took three years for the front firm, Chong Lot Travel, to get permission to tow the Varyag through the Istanbul Straits and on to China. That permission was finally granted in 2001 and the following pictures document what has occurred to the Varyag since.

The Ukrainian Carrier Varyag in Ukraine Naval Yards, approximately 70% complete, prior to being towed away by Chong Lot Travel Agency.

The Chong Lot Travel Agency tows their newly purchased and rusting Varyag through the Istanbul Straits in late 2001.

The Varyag arrives in China at the end of its long voyage and is docked in the Chinese Naval shipyards at Dalian and in 2003
work begins on the vessel. In this time frame, not surprisingly, Chong Lot goes out of business.

Work continues on the Varyag in the Dalian naval shipyards throughout 2004, with several large cranes participating.

The Vayag spends several months of very expensive time in dry dock in the Dalian naval shipyards in 2005.

The Varyag emerges from dry dock painted in official Chinese Navy colors and the work of refitting her continues.

More painting and refit work contiues on the Varyag, now in official PLAN colors in 2005 and with flags flying for a VIP visit.

A Zinc Chromate primer is applied to the main deck in 2006 in Dalian. This is a primer for a non-skid surface to keep aircrafft from skidding off
of a carrier's main deck. Note the large storage and logistics facilities that have been constructed dockside to the right and behind the carrier.

The Zinc Chromate primer is covered over in 2006 in the Dalian naval shipyards.

The final non-skid surface appears to have been added to the Varyag's main deck in late 2006.

Varyag looking very trim and squared away in late 2006 at Dalian naval shipyards..

The forward portion of the Varyag in early 2007 in Dalian. The hull and flight deck seem to be nearing completion.

AIRCRAFT
In October of 2006, the Kommersant online newspaper in Moscow announced a deal between Russia and China where the Russians sell up to 50 Su-33 fighters to China for $2.5 billion. Details seem to indicate that China will spend $100 million to buy two Su-33 fighters from Komsomolsk-on-Amur Production Association for evaluation, with delivery expected in 2007. There appears to also be a fairly firm option for 12 more Su-33 fighters, with the potential for the deal to add another 36 SU-33s. In that event, the deal would total the $2.5 billion. The SU-33 fighter is the navalized version of the SU-27 fighter that China has purchased in large numbers from the Russians and now license builds themselves. It is the same fighter that the Russians use on their carrier, the Kuznetsov, which is the older sister ship to the Varyag. In addition, over the last two years, the Chinese have been negotiating with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter, which is the helicopter the Russians use on their carrier for AEW duties. The Chinese have also introduced designs for prop-driven AEW aircraft of their own similar to the United States E-2 Hawkeye aircraft. The continuing efforts by the PLAN to obtain navalized, carrier fighters and AEW aircraft from Russia (or design their own), coupled with the recent completion of a non-skid surface on the flight deck of the Varyag, and its painting in official PLAN colors, make it abudnantly clear that this vessel, at some future date, will be China's first aircraft carrier.

In 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians to purchase SU-33 naval fighters for carrier operations, receiving special demonstations at Moscow and Chinese military airshows.

Throughout 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter which is used for early warning (AEW) purposes, the same AEW helo the Russins use on their carrier.

ESCORTS
WHile all of this has been occuring, the PLAN has embarked on a phenominal naval ship building and modernization program, simultaneously working on ten to twelve new classes of major combatants and building several of each at one time. This program has already developed and launched all of the necessary modern classes of guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, attack submarines, and supply ships to form the basis for a very powerful carrier strike group once a carrier is available...and to defend and supply it in the blue water, as the following pictures attest.

Two new modern, AEGIS-like area air defense destroyers for the PLAN, equiped with VLS and PAR. These ships would be very capable as escorts for a carrier.

Two of four modern and very powerful Russian destroyers built for the PLAN, specifically designed to hunt super-carriers.

Two new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile destroyers suitable for carrier escort duties and capable in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

Two of six new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile frigates with VLS AAW and suitable for carrier escort duties in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

PLAN nuclear attack submarines, older HAN class (5) and two of the new Type-093 class capable of escoprt duties for a PLAN carrier.

The new class large at sea replenishment ships for the PLAN, capable of replenishing a PLAN carrier strike group.

CONCLUSIONS
It is this author's and researcher's opinion that the Chinese Navy (PLAN) will launch the Varyag in the 2008-2010 time frame and begin trials and training for her use as an operational aircraft carrier with a wing of SU-33 aircraft, perhaps modernized with vectored thrust and strike at sea and ground attack capabilities in addition to its already significant air superiority capabilites. Furthermore, this air wing will be supported by KA-31 AEW helos operating off the carrier in conjunction with other ASW and SAR helicopters. This training will be ongoing for several years as the PLAN gains experience in carrier operations, and will prepare them for the introduction of one or more of their own indigenous carrier later in the 2010 decade, which will include Chinese indigenous navalized aircraft and their own, more capable AEW and EW aircraft.

Jeff Head is an engineering consultant with many years experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently works for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and is also the author of a self-published and best-selling series of military techno-thrillers called the Dragon's Fury that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events. You can learn more about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES

Copyright © 2007 by Jeff Head

AVAILABLE AS A FREE ADOBE EBOOK DOWNLOAD TO ALL FREEPERS ---> HERE

[Jeff Head]

For all of those following Red China's phenominal naval buildup, and particularly those who have been following the fate of the former Soviet aircraft carrier Varyag.

[Jeff Head]

FYI, my latest on the PLAN activities with the Varyag.

[Aetius]

They sold it for $20 million?

Maybe the US should have bought it just to keep it out of Chinese hands.

[Jeff Head]

The Ukraine was anxious to get rid of it and scrapping it would probably have cost them millions. This way they got something for it.

But your point is well taken. Astute planners would have made a deal by offering 50% more just to tie it up.

As it is, the Chinese spent another $10 miiion towing it over to the shipyards and have spent tens millions since. But, if they do produce an operational carrier from it, they will have gotten a deal over producing one from scratch.

The costs will still mount as they will be spending hundreds of millions to billions on the aircraft and armamnet to outfit it.

[PGalt]

Great post/pics. Thanks.

[maui_hawaii]

Good work Jeff.

[FastCoyote]

Amazing pictures, someone put themselves at risk.

[Wildbill22]

Very useful for the Taiwan endgame. Carrier on carrier warfare for the first time in 70 years? It isn't nuclear powered though, if that would make any difference. In any event, it will probably cost more than $20 million to sink it.

[Jeff Head]

You are weclome. The overasll work being done in the Chinese neval shipyards is phenominal and there is no shortage of pictures of that work. Many who are still alive that experienced it comment that it is reminiscent of the Japanese and German naval buildup of the late 1930s.

[RayChuang88]

Alas, it if get into a shooting war it will soon be a target for this:

[Non-Sequitur]

So has anyone actually seen it underway yet?

[Sundog]

One picture I clearly remember -- not sure if it was from your site -- a scale aircraft carrier with planes on board, used inside one of their operations buildings, to figure how to position and move aircraft. It seems the ship was a fifty feet long or so, making each aircraft about a foot in size. That was the earliest picture I remember that showed their exact intentions.

[Jeff Head]

At my RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA site there are a lot more.

The sheer amount of naval shipbuilding is phenomincal. It is inescapable and the Chinese officially publish many pictures. but, your point is well taken because many of the pictures coming out are clearly from chinese workers or military personnel themselves who are taking pictures right at dock side where the vessels are clearly under gaurd.

Either way, there is no hiding or talking away the extent of the chinese naval buildup.

[Jeff Head]

It has not been underway yet. At the end of the article I post my own opinion that it will be launched in the 2008-2010 time frame. Clearly, until it is launched, it will not get underway.

[Jeff Head]

Those launchers on most of the Perry class frigates have been completely removed. In either case, it is unlikely that a Perry class frigate would get close enough to launch harpoons at the Varyag in a full, stand up, naval war.

IMHO, it is more likely that either our own carrier aircraft, or one of our subs, would be firing the warshots that struck this vessel if it ever came to a shooting war.

[Kakaze]

Thanks, Jeff

Great work as always. Is it just me or does that ship look unstable. I doubt that it is, I just wonder what it must look like below the water line to maintain its balance and stability.

Then again what does an old pilot know about boats:)

[Yo-Yo]

Some operational questions:

The Russians, the Indians, and now the Chineese are using SU-33s for their carrier operations. I understand that the aircraft, like the F-15 and F-16, has a greater than 1 to 1 thrust ratio, hence the ski ramp and lack of catapult gear.

Landings are arrested, I presume? If so, does that mean that due to the lack of an angled deck that bolters go along the length of the flight deck and back off the ski ramp again?

Does that also mean that fewer aircraft can be carried aboard because the entire length of the flight deck must be cleared of parked aircraft to accomodate bolters?

[Wuli]

"Maybe the US should have bought it just to keep it out of Chinese hands."

Now why do you expect something that intelligent to come out of Washington, D.C.??? /sarc

[Non-Sequitur]

It has not been underway yet. At the end of the article I post my own opinion that it will be launched in the 2008-2010 time frame. Clearly, until it is launched, it will not get underway.

If memory serves the Varyag was a hulk when it left the Ukraine, without engines, propellers, or electrical works. Has anyone seen the Chinese installing a main propulsion system?

[Jeff Head]

The do arrested landings, but they come in on an angled deck. Here is a picture of the sister ship of the Varyag, the Kuznetsov, which is operational with the russian Navy.

There are fewer aircraft than the US Navy because the vessel is smaller, and because there were provisions for large anti-surface missile launchers forward on the deck which bit into available hangar space.

BTW, the Indians will not be using SU-33s. They have elected to go with a navalized version of the Mig-29 for both the rework on the former Russian carrier they are receiving and on the indigenous carrier that they are now building.

[Alter Kaker]

In 1988, when the Soviet Union dissolved,

It's hard to take the rest of your post on your authority, when the first clause is just flatly wrong. Check your dates.

[WLR]

CONCLUSIONS

What it really means is the Chinese want an Aircraft Carrier on the cheap and to keep the US Comitted to maintaining ours.

Aircraft Carriers in subnational conflicts are great..

Soon they will be exposed as being totally vulnerable to Nation State Attack. They are expensive and outdated by modern Anti Ship Missiles which even non nuclear can saturate any anti missile defense system.

Large Capital Ships soon will be out of date. Dinosaurs waiting to die en masse.


W

[Jeff Head]

It's been at the shipyards for three years, spending months in dry dock. Very large storage and logisitics facilities have been built housing some large, indeterminate equipment.

There are no pictures of engines going in...but the amount of work, the dry dock time, the non-skid preparation all indicate that operational use is planned...ergo...engines will have to be included.

Time will tell.

[blam]

Ah so.

[Jeff Head]

Sorry, we disagree. Massive missile attacks will be charging into the teeth of the CSG defenses. Few nations have the capability to locate a carrier on the high seas that does not want to be found, to then launch enough aircraft to go after her, and then get close enough to her to fire enough missiles to saturate the capabilities of the 2-3 AEGIS escorts accompanying the carrier, and particularly in the EW environemnt that the US is VERY good at...meaning a whole lot of missiles are going to fail to locate the carrier even if they are close...or just fail altogether.

It is not as straight forward as you make it sound. it is much more likely, IMHO, that a sub surface attack will get to a carrier, but there as well the defenses are strong.

[swatbuznik]

This is sooo unsettling. Chinese ramping up, Russians selling off military property, Iran doing exercises, Pakistan launching missiles... and all the dems want to do is cut spending to the military? How oblivious can they be? This is more unsettling than the old cold war! I think the dems have made us look weak and now the wolves are circling to have a piece...

[Non-Sequitur]

There are no pictures of engines going in...but the amount of work, the dry dock time, the non-skid preparation all indicate that operational use is planned...ergo...engines will have to be included.

I admit that I haven't spent much time keeping track of it, but you don't just sneak them onboard. If they aren't in now then they'll have to cut holes in that newly non-skidded flight deck to install them. Just seems backwards to me. And if the Chinese do want a carrier then they've chosen a gold-plated way to go about it. For all the time, effort, and money they're sinking into this thing they could have bought two new ones from a Russian shipyard.

[chainsaw]

What did the Chinese rename the Varyag?

[Oztrich Boy]

Landings are arrested, I presume? If so, does that mean that due to the lack of an angled deck that bolters go along the length of the flight deck and back off the ski ramp again?

Yes arrested, but there is an angled deck

Russian Kuznetsov

[Carry_Okie]

Although the Chinese are apparently developing the ability to project power, I can't imagine how a navy that can be tracked by satellite and sunk with GPS guided weapons can survive against the United States Navy.

My guess is that, lacking anti-missile defense capability, the flotilla with the longest range missiles would win. I have serious doubts that the Chinese are so equipped, yet. Having been in the radar electronics business and witnessed the transfer of production to Asia, it won't be long before they can make the components, but putting whole systems together is another matter.

[SauronOfMordor]

For an aggressor, it is most advantageous to concentrate on building up their economy and industrial base first (which they have been busily doing ever since getting permanent Most Favored Nation status)

If you are the one who chooses the time and place to strike, you can defer military spending until it's almost showtime

[Strategerist]

I'm personally thrilled they're wasting money on the whole project.

[Strategerist]

If you are the one who chooses the time and place to strike, you can defer military spending until it's almost showtime

This is so amazingly beyond false it's laughable - particularly in the specific case of modern naval combat.

We're spending a lot of money and tens of thousands of man-hours analyzing and designing the ships that will start coming into service in 2035. Everything Naval has incredibly long lead-times now.

[Jeff Head]

The do have significant anti-air capability and are building more. In the last couple of years they have launched four area air defense destroyers and two multi-purpose destroyers with decent medium air defenses. At the same time they have purchased four strong Russian destroyers with good medium air coverage and built four of their own frigates with decent air defenses as well.

Their new class of Lanzhou AEGIS-like desroyers will be at the heart of these defenses, just like our true Ticonderoga and Burke AEGIS vessels are at the heart of ours.

THEIR AREA AIR DEFENSE DESTROYERS

OUR AREA AIR DEFENSE DESTROYERS

[Jeff Head]

No official name yet...but many believe that the name will be the Shi Lang.

[Jeff Head]

Reminds many people of the late 1930s buildup that preceded World War II.

[Jeff Head]

I personally believe that they are already in there. There have been several periods where absolutely no pictures have been available for many months...corresponding to tighter security measures. My personal belief it that eiother during the dry dock time or sometime just before that, engines could well have been installed.

[steveegg]

IMHO, it is more likely that either our own carrier aircraft, or one of our subs, would be firing the warshots that struck this vessel if it ever came to a shooting war.

I'd put my money on the ex-Varyag soaking up a couple of Mk48s on its belated journey to Davey Jones' locker.

[brothers4thID]

Just FYI, the USSR did not dissolve in 1988. Otherwise interesting reading.

[brityank]

Anyone else want to keep an eye on the Varyag? [Google Maps] ^

Also found an interesting site: Varyagworld.com ^

In November 1998, Cheng Zhen Shu, chairman of Chong Lot Travel Agency, has said that Varyag would become a multi-functional entertainment centre, with 600 room hotel, casino, discotheque, restaurants and night-clubs, and has called it Ocean Entertainment Centre.

In May 2005, the Varyag was placed in dry dock and, in early August, it emerged painted in People's Liberation Army Navy gray.

At that time Macau's casino magnate Stanley Ho announced the construction of  Oceanus,  an $800 million entertainment complex in Macau, with 600 room hotel, casino, cinema, retail and apartments, scheduled to open in 2009. It seems Stanley Ho lost the Varyag in transoceanic subterfuge and decided to have a new one.
Nowadays, presence and mystery of the Varyag is a cost-effective way that cause maximum intimidation against unsinkable aircraft carrier Taiwan.

[Jeff Head]

You of course are correct, the actual date was Christmas Day 1991 I believe. Thatt's already been fixed on the site...and I will try and get the mods to fix it here. Thanks.

[Jeff Head]

Agreed...that is probably the most likely thing in a shooting war, particularly since on defense, the PLAN is weakest in ASW.

...and two MK-48s would certainly do it

[CarrotAndStick]

By Invitation.

[Colonel Jerry USMC ret.]

Presently China has a coastal navy and not a very well-organized one. It is no secret that they want to expand to a Blue Water force of some size and capability. Such is a MASSIVE undertaking for a nation whose last experiences were big wooden junks sailing to Africa and back by eunuchs.

You do not sail a carrier battle group into the oceans without years of training, and I estimate 10 years, starting from scratch! Reason: A carrier battle group has to operate in all conditions where every able seaman, petty officer, officer up to and including the Admirals performs as a "Single Organism"! That does not happen easily and it can expire very soon without constant training and operations.

This carrier is small, real small like an escort carrier. It cannot put many jets up in a short time and recover them. The jets are not fuel sufficient for long range at sea interdiction. That means turning into the wind for traps often. Where do the aerial refuelers come from?

This carrier battle group against say, the USS Reagan carrier group would be outclassed in just about any specialty you could think of. AND it is only one against about 12 of our groups.

I could go on but won`t. Yes, it will be a strategic factor to consider and plan for but it is a long way off and the US Navy doesn`t ever stand still, rather we keep improving our lethality as rapidly as we can.

As my grandma used to say, "Oil ain`t oil til it`s in the barrel...."

Semper Fi,

[GreyFriar]

Looks like the ChiComs are going for a blue water navy in competition to us. And there weren't anymore enemies after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

[Jeff Head]

Actually, this carrier, like the Kuznetsov, is second in size and displacement and aircraft carrying capability only to the US supercarriers. Full load is 67,500 tons.

The French nuclear carrier, by comparison is only in the 40,000 ton category. That said, because the French operate a true catapault take-off and arrested landing system, they are able to launch more aircraft quicker, and with better war loads than these types of ski-jump take off arrangments allow.

The new UK carriers (which are several years off yet) will be 65,000 tons.

Nonetheless, the group the chinese are putting together is nothing to be scoffee at or underestimated. My guess is that by 2020 they are likely to have three full deck carriers operating at the rate they are going. We will probably be down to ten in that same time period.

But, in the confined spaces of the China Sea, or in the local waters of the Western Pacific, where such a conflict is likely to take place, they will still represent a significant threat.

That is why the Japanese are beefing up as are the South Koreans...and the INdians for that matter. Given our own clear strengths, it still should be a slam dunk...but everyone knew that ultimately in the Pacific in World War II it was going to be a slam dunk too and that did not stop a very costly war from being fought.

[SauronOfMordor]

unsinkable aircraft carrier Taiwan

It may be unsinkable, but the exact locations of military airfields and installations are known to the Chinese. Which means that any attack will be initiated with missile attacks on those locations. The advantage of the floating aircraft carrier is that it's hard to know exactly where it is

The big question: if an attack on Taiwan is initiated by tactical nukes (either missile or cruise missile) against their military installations, what is the probability that a Dem administration will launch a nuke strike against China? IMHO, very low, especially if facing an enemy with the ability to hit the West Coast (at minimum) with their own missiles

[Jeff Head]

That was one of the great miscalculation IMHO...if it indeed was a miscalculation.

The chinese economy (which we are helping along the way to self sufficency) and their methodical approach to this have every chance of turning into a major arms race and stand off between to vastly different ideological competitiors and foes. Best, if we still can, to cut off the funding from our side and live with the pain of weening ourselves from them until their governmental system changes. That will be far less costly and painful than a major war with them if it comes to that.

[Jeff Head]

I have another site devoted to the Carriers of the world...here's a link to a nice comparison of some of the major classes in operation today from that site:

Worldwideaircraftcarriers.com Carrier comparison.

[SauronOfMordor]

This carrier is small, real small like an escort carrier. It cannot put many jets up in a short time and recover them. The jets are not fuel sufficient for long range at sea interdiction. That means turning into the wind for traps often. Where do the aerial refuelers come from?

They might be useful to extend the reach of China a bit further into the ocean. Launch carrier-capable planes from land, have them hit targets outside their round-trip range, and land on the carrier for fueling and re-arming.

How many aircraft could that carrier keep in the air if they were not initially based on the carrier?