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Another stock shocker expected (Further Stock Market Declines For This Week?)
The Australian ^ | 5 March 2007 | Scott Murdoch

Posted on 03/04/2007 2:35:23 PM PST by shrinkermd

INVESTORS will be scrambling for safety this morning with another fall on the local share market expected after Wall Street ended a horror week with a 120 point drop on Friday. Equities are struggling for traction amid the global sell-down in stocks triggered by last Tuesday's plunge on the Shenzhen and Shanghai markets, pushing investors away from volatile investments and into cash and bonds. The March S&P/ASX 200 futures contracts is pointing to a 1 per cent fall on the local share index, and markets are expected to be volatile from the opening.

The equity market volatility comes amid a big week for economic data and the Reserve Bank of Australia's second monthly board meeting for the year, which is expected to leave interest rates on hold.

In New York on Friday the Dow Jones closed down 120 points on Friday, capping its worst week in four years, amid problems in the sub-prime lending market and concerns about the economic growth outlook.

Goldman Sachs JB Were chairman Terry Campbell told Sky News Sunday Business the bourse could still decline by 5 per cent before "this correction is over".

"So while I'm very optimistic in the medium to longer term I think share prices could come back a bit further," he said.

(Excerpt) Read more at theaustralian.news.com.au ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial
KEYWORDS: decline; recession; stockmarket
Friday's decline while impressive when added to the week's losses was on low volume. We will have an interesting day on Monday.
1 posted on 03/04/2007 2:35:28 PM PST by shrinkermd
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To: shrinkermd

Hey, that just means that those you invest steadily can buy at lower prices.


2 posted on 03/04/2007 2:38:16 PM PST by misterrob (Jack Bauer/Chuck Norris 2008)
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To: All

Or, if you trade hedge-fund style equities derivatives, you can be up 32.78% for Feb. I had a good week.


3 posted on 03/04/2007 2:41:48 PM PST by farlander (Strategery - sure beats liberalism!)
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To: shrinkermd

Almost time to start cost averaging down.


4 posted on 03/04/2007 2:47:18 PM PST by Proud_USA_Republican (We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good. - Hillary Clinton)
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To: shrinkermd
>We will have an interesting day on Monday


5 posted on 03/04/2007 2:49:43 PM PST by theFIRMbss
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To: shrinkermd

Good resistance at 8000.


6 posted on 03/04/2007 2:53:16 PM PST by spanalot
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To: shrinkermd
TOKYO, March 5 (Reuters) - Tokyo stocks are expected to book heavy losses on Monday, with the Nikkei average falling below 17,000 for the first time in nearly two months, after the recent sell-off continued in New York and due to the stronger yen.

Nikkei futures pointed to a steep decline in the market. Contracts expiring in March <2NKc1> finished at 16,865 in Chicago, down 295 points from the close in Osaka .

"Today is going to hurt," said Shinji Igarashi, equity manager at the sales department of Chuo Securities

7 posted on 03/04/2007 4:15:50 PM PST by shrinkermd
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To: shrinkermd
Cheer up I think!

In the first five minutes of trading the Nikkei 250 is down 270 points or 1.58%. It is going to be a long day in Japan since the Yen also broke 116 to the dollar--that is their currency is appreciating against our dollars; hence, their trade advantages are diminishing.

16947.28 270.65 1.57% N225.

8 posted on 03/04/2007 4:28:52 PM PST by shrinkermd
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To: spanalot

Good resistance at 8000? Did you mean good support?


9 posted on 03/04/2007 4:41:56 PM PST by snarks_when_bored
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To: shrinkermd

8:30 est the Nikkei 225 futures now down 2%

Expect strength in US treasuries tomorrow and more margin calls qand mutual fund outflows


10 posted on 03/04/2007 5:33:39 PM PST by HockeyPop
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To: HockeyPop

Just a good chance to shake the tree.


11 posted on 03/04/2007 5:41:33 PM PST by elk
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To: HockeyPop

So, buy on the dips, or catch a falling knife?


12 posted on 03/04/2007 5:41:45 PM PST by Mr J (All IMHO.)
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To: farlander

Please say more about how you trade.


13 posted on 03/04/2007 5:41:56 PM PST by Tax Government (If and when America is hit by terrorists again, I expect all democrats to fall on their swords.)
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To: Proud_USA_Republican

If you will, say something about the tools you use to find & monitor trades.


14 posted on 03/04/2007 5:44:21 PM PST by Tax Government (If and when America is hit by terrorists again, I expect all democrats to fall on their swords.)
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To: snarks_when_bored

yeah - what he say.


15 posted on 03/04/2007 5:44:31 PM PST by spanalot
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To: farlander

Farlander, Please say something, if you would, about the tools you use to find and monitor trades.


16 posted on 03/04/2007 5:45:36 PM PST by Tax Government (If and when America is hit by terrorists again, I expect all democrats to fall on their swords.)
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To: shrinkermd

Could we be reaching a point in time where we see a "demographic decline?"

That is, baby boomers in retirement, seeking to safely capture their gains of the past few years and secure income-bearing instruments, bring about a bear market through their selling thinking "I have to be first in line to sell so I'm not last?"

I don't believe that there is enough wealth in the hands of the under 50 set to buy stocks at these levels if people over 50 start selling in earnest.


17 posted on 03/04/2007 5:49:54 PM PST by Old_Mil (Duncan Hunter in 2008! A Veteran, A Patriot, A Reagan Republican... http://www.gohunter08.com/)
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To: Old_Mil
I'm no financial expert, however, I recall a television interview shortly after the Columbia disaster,
"Savers may be the winners."

Bush, et. al. have turned this nation over to third world folk.

They are foaming and frothing at the mouth for wealth, not
their own.

Bush is a third world enabler.
18 posted on 03/04/2007 6:13:05 PM PST by smb30
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To: Old_Mil

As one of the first baby boomers, I am 90% cash and 10% energy and gold stocks. Protect the principal at all costs. Will buy in if the market drops 10 or 15 %.


19 posted on 03/04/2007 6:46:15 PM PST by Tripleplay
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To: shrinkermd
Friday's decline while impressive when added to the week's losses was on low volume. We will have an interesting day on Monday.

Huh? Friday's volume was way above the 50 day moving average for all three major indexes. If you meant Friday's volume was slightly lower than Thursday and Wednesday, well sure.

20 posted on 03/04/2007 6:51:45 PM PST by John123 (Dick Morris predicts Hitlery will be the worst president ever... I will now light myself on fire)
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To: shrinkermd

GBP/JPY moved -400+ pips in aboout an hour this evening!!!!

Dollar down against Yen but not nearly as much GPB down against the dollar.


21 posted on 03/04/2007 6:57:11 PM PST by Leto
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To: shrinkermd

Hang Seng down about 3% but Shanghai up about .5%.


22 posted on 03/04/2007 7:26:18 PM PST by shrinkermd
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To: Tax Government

I'm not some high volume day trader. Its pretty hard considering how busy I am with my full time job.

Most of the analysis tools I use, I get through my online broker, Scottrade. I've learned how to read and work with candlestick charts. While I like to keep my eyes on the charts, I tend to invest in companies I know about (I work in technology and finance) so I gravitate to those. If I see a stock that get my initial interest, I start monitoring it and reading up everything I can about what drives its business and stock price movement.
There are stocks I treat as a trade (short term) or longterm investments.
Back in October, I had my radar on Coach as a trade stock, the women's luxury retailer. They appeared primed for a monster holiday shopping season. So I built up a position at a cost average of $37. I was looking for 50 by christmas given current interest in the stock. It's been getting nothing but positive press about it and the major hedge and mutual funds are all over it.
While I didn't get $50 by Christmas, given its upward momentum, I stuck with it, and it hit $50 in Febuary where I sold half my position, and decided to let the rest ride.
It got knocked down to 46 with what happened last week, but I still see lots of strength in the stock, so I'm going to continue to hold and will buy more if it goes below 45.

Another stock I'm betting big on in 2007 is Marvell (MRVL), the semiconductor chip maker. The stock as been held down with the company being investigated for options backdating, but I think the price drop is a hiccup, and they are primed for a major bounce upward once its all figured out. They make outstanding products that you see in many of the most cutting edge wireless devices. Their chips have a very good chance of being in the new Apple cellphone. Stock is around $20 a share and I have a price target on it for $30 this year. Their latest earnings report was impressive.


23 posted on 03/04/2007 8:22:33 PM PST by Proud_USA_Republican (We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good. - Hillary Clinton)
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To: Tripleplay
As one of the first baby boomers, I am 90% cash and 10% energy and gold stocks. Protect the principal at all costs. Will buy in if the market drops 10 or 15 %.

My portfolio is quite similar at the moment. However it looks like time to start thinking about mutual funds that short the indexes.

24 posted on 03/04/2007 8:57:46 PM PST by freespirited (Demand perfection, get Hillary.)
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To: freespirited

Around what age are you?

So if the majority of your portfolio is cash, you have this in a savings account getting about 5% or buried in some coffee can in the backyard?

You could put some of that cash in tax free muni's. It might offset some of the taxes from any capital gains or what you are forced to payout from your retirement accounts.

If your looking for some mutual funds to short the indexes. Here is some ideas.

http://bearmarketcentral.com/mutualfunds.htm


25 posted on 03/04/2007 9:23:39 PM PST by Proud_USA_Republican (We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good. - Hillary Clinton)
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To: shrinkermd
I will terminate my interest in this thread with this quote from today's Yahoo.

"In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index fell for a fifth day, tumbling 575.68 points, or 3.34 percent, to 16,642.25 points, dragged down by major exporters such as Canon Inc., Sony Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp., whose earnings are eroded by a stronger yen. Since reaching a nearly seven-year high last Monday, the Nikkei index has slid 8.64 percent.

Markets in Hong Kong, Australia, the Philippines, India and South Korea all fell sharply Monday, continuing their declines from last week, when a 9 percent plunge in Chinese stocks on Tuesday triggered a sell-off on Wall Street and other global markets.

European markets also opened lower Monday, with Britain's benchmark FTSE 100 down 1.5 percent in early trading, France's CAC 40 sliding 1.8 percent and Germany's DAX sinking 2.1 percent.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index tumbled 4 percent to its lowest since mid-December. Australia's stock market -- which had hit a record last month -- fell for a fifth day, sinking 2.3 percent.

South Korea's benchmark index dropped 2.7 percent, Philippine stocks plunged 4.5 percent, and Indian stocks were down nearly 4 percent.

Investors still seemed risk-averse after the previous week's turmoil.

26 posted on 03/05/2007 2:51:31 AM PST by shrinkermd
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To: Proud_USA_Republican

Sorry I did not make myself clearer. Normally I am almost fully invested but at the moment I am not as optimistic as most about the direction of the market. Even though this is the year before an election when the market typically does very well. Am in sort of a wait and see period and know I will have to make a decision at some point because like you point out, settling for 5% is nuts. (I saw Mark Cuban advocate exactly this on CNBC the other day!).

I did switch a lot of the nonretirement portfolio to tax free muni mutual funds recently (I havent yet shaken my bad habit of referring to everything with a fixed share value of a buck as cash).

That list of bear funds is great, thanks so much. Previously I have used two of the Profunds and one of the Rydex. Didn't know about some of the others and will start looking in to them.


27 posted on 03/05/2007 7:36:14 AM PST by freespirited (Demand perfection, get Hillary.)
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To: Proud_USA_Republican

Sorry I did not make myself clearer. Normally I am almost fully invested but at the moment I am not as optimistic as most about the direction of the market. Even though this is the year before an election when the market typically does very well. Am in sort of a wait and see period and know I will have to make a decision at some point because like you point out, settling for 5% is nuts. (I saw Mark Cuban advocate exactly this on CNBC the other day!).

I did switch a lot of the nonretirement portfolio to tax free muni mutual funds recently (I havent yet shaken my bad habit of referring to everything with a fixed share value of a buck as cash).

That list of bear funds is great, thanks so much. Previously I have used two of the Profunds and one of the Rydex. Didn't know about some of the others and will start looking in to them.


28 posted on 03/05/2007 7:36:16 AM PST by freespirited (Demand perfection, get Hillary.)
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