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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's December jobs forum may be better at serving his political need to show the White House cares about sky-high U.S. unemployment, than discovering new ways to cheaply boost economic growth. There is a long history of presidents hosting "economic summits" to show their concern about the economy. But economists say that by appearing to rule out significant additional spending to lift the economy, Obama will limit what the forum can achieve, and he risks making it look like an exercise in public relations. "You need more demand for goods and services in order to...

ON THE ROAD For the Hotel Industry, Recovery is a Long Way Off By JOE SHARKEY IN these uncertain economic times, I am wary when I hear someone proclaiming, “We have finally bottomed out.” After all, who knows how long we may stay on the bottom? So that’s why I urge caution in evaluating small recent indicators that might mean better times ahead for the hotel industry. On Monday, for example, the hotel investment services firm Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels released a survey showing that investors saw some signs of improvement for hotels, but not for at least a year....

It's beginning to look a lot like a "W." After logging the fastest rate of growth in two years last quarter, the economy appears to be losing steam during the current period. This is no big surprise; the consensus of forecasters surveyed weekly by MarketWatch has long been expecting slower growth during the fourth quarter. Their latest projections call for a growth rate of 2.5% -- a percentage point slower than the government's preliminary take on the previous quarter. (See Economic Calendar.) There's plenty of evidence that our panel may be right -- if not a tad optimistic. For one...

Restaurants brace for dreary season as consumers lose appetite for dining out The number of people visiting restaurants has plunged for four quarters in a row, according to NPD Group. Some higher-end establishments are offering discounts for holiday parties. By Jerry Hirsch November 24, 2009 Adele Cabot and her husband used to dine out three to four times a week, regularly spending $75 to $100 at a sushi bar sampling rainbow rolls and yellowtail nigiri sushi. But that changed after Cabot, an adjunct professor of theater at UCLA, had to take a 6% salary cut. The couple now eat out...

The first results, showed women are having sex 17 percent more than the average man since the recession. "Safe to say that women seem to be recession-proof in the bedroom?" Early Show co-anchor Maggie Rodriguez asked. "This recession has been called the 'he-cession' because so many more men have been affected by job loss and financial worries. It's not that women won't take a self-esteem hit if they lose their job, but their self worth comes from a number of different areas, which was is a little different from men," Calvo said. "And women are also more likely than men...

Heard on Fox News this morning that the great recession of 2008-2009 is over, and that job growth will greatly accelerate in 2010. Fox News source... NABE (National Association of Business Economics) NABE Outlook: Recovery Soon to Lose "Jobless" Label Reaffirming last month’s call that the Great Recession is over, NABE panelists have marked up their predictions for economic growth in 2010 and expect performance to exceed its long-term trend. NABE members can read the full survey online. There is a summary for the public. Are these poeple clueless? One just has to look at the leadership summary from its...

25 Reasons We Will Not Have a Depression Kimball Corson November 20, 2009 One particularly vitriolic reader of my last article on The Distorted Shape of the Recovering Economy seemed to think I was predicting a doomsday scenario. I was not at all. Richard Duncan’s tentatively predicted Fall of Rome scenario is a true doomsday scenario, not mine. My focus of late has been much more on the need for transparency and candor from our government on TARP I and II and the stimulus program results, as well as, more importantly, on getting the stimulus infrastructure program facilitated, expanded and...

The NAACP, the AFL-CIO and the Hispanic rights group La Raza joined forces to pressure the Obama administration to do more to create jobs for a recession-plagued nation. The normally pro-Obama groups made it clear that they felt his $787 billion stimulus had favored big banks and corporations and had not gone far enough to create jobs. They called for significant increases in government spending for schools and roads and billions to provide fiscal relief for financially strapped state and local governments. In an attempt to avoid appearing to be an Obama critic, the NAACP’s Senior Vice President Hilary O....

Errors and poor estimates pepper the stimulus data that Oklahoma contractors recently submitted to the federal government. Big Five Community Services, a community action program in Durant, received $383,000 for its Head Start program. It used the money to fill three new positions and provide 39 Head Start staff members with professional training and a 1.84 percent pay increase for cost-of-living adjustments. Program representatives said the stimulus award created 42 jobs, data show. Carol Ammons, Big Five's executive director, said the pay increase would help prevent turnover and the training would help workers stay employed. "The sad thing about it...

While the US recently reported 3.5 percent GDP growth in the third quarter, suggesting that the most severe recession since the Great Depression is over, the US economy is actually much weaker than official data suggest. Official measures of GDP may grossly overstate growth in the economy as they don’t capture the fact that business sentiment among small firms is abysmal and their output is still falling sharply. Third-quarter GDP — properly corrected for these factors — may have been 2 percent rather than 3.5 percent. The story of the US is, indeed, one of two economies. There is a...

CARSON CITY — No sooner were the latest unemployment numbers released Friday morning than politicians offered their takes, illustrating that no fact will go un-spun this campaign season. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in a statement declared the drop in statewide unemployment from 13.3 percent to 13 percent a “positive development and further evidence that Nevada is starting down the economic road to recovery.” Jeremy Aguero, principal of the financial firm Applied Analysis, said the “condition is effectively unchanged between September and October.” A muted response was appropriate, he said. “The unemployment drop isn’t because we’ve created jobs,” he said....

The Pending Financial, Economic, Political And Social Collapse Of The United States Politics / US Politics Nov 21, 2009 - 03:20 AM By: Submissions Timothy V. Gatto writes: The truth that most people realize but can’t openly talk about is that America has seen better days and that the system of capitalism has long outlived its usefulness. The last part of that sentence, that capitalism has outlived its usefulness, is thoroughly the fault of the capitalists themselves. For many years now, transnational corporations have sent much of America’s manufacturing overseas in order to take advantage of low cost workers. About...

Financial And Economic Situation Could Get Ugly Fast Economics / Economic Stimulus Nov 21, 2009 - 03:27 AM By: Mike_Whitney Things could get ugly fast. With the Democrats backing-off on a second round of stimulus, the Fed signaling an end to quantitative easing, and Obama moaning about rising deficits; there's a good chance that the stumbling recovery could turn into another sharp plunge. Bank lending is shrinking, consumers spending is off, housing prices are falling, unemployment is soaring and the wholesale credit markets are in a shambles. This isn't the time to slash government support in the name of "fiscal...

In a speech before 1,500 of the world’s top climate scientists, Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University, Germany warned that “the recent cooling trend should not be allowed to divert attention from our main purpose. Temperatures rise, temperatures fall, sometimes catastrophically. Amidst these fluctuations, though, it is imperative that funding for climate research be maintained.” “Many governments are looking for ways to reduce expenditures during the current recession,” Latif ominously observed. “Consequently, a perception that climatic dangers may be easing or that there may be plenty of time to respond to trends that take...

Washington (CNN) -- Nearly two years into the recession, opinion about which political party is responsible for the severe economic downturn is shifting, according to a new national poll. A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Friday morning indicates that 38 percent of the public blames Republicans for the country's current economic problems. In May, 53 percent blamed the GOP. According to the poll, 27 percent now blame the Democrats for the recession, up 6 points from May, and 27 percent now say both parties are responsible. "The bad news for the Democrats is that the number of Americans who hold...

How To Survive The Coming Global Economic Collapse Henry BlodgetNov. 20, 2009, 10:10 AM The following excerpt is from the blog "Surviving In Argentina," by Fernando Ferfal Aguirre. Ferfal lived through Argentina's economic implosion in 2001. Here, he shares some of his secrets to survival. So, guys, things don’t look good. It pains me to see America going through this and the consequences it will bring. These are critical days. Now is when we’ll get a better picture of how bad things will actually get, how long until we see the economy back on its feet. Instead of trying to...

U.S. Economy Is A Geriatric On Viagra Economics / US Economy Nov 20, 2009 - 02:35 AM By: Brian_Bloom A retired friend, an academic in a field unrelated to the subject of economics or finance, recently asked me to tell him what I thought was happening in these (to him) surreal worlds. Why are some people so bearish that they were effectively anticipating the end of the world whilst others are insisting that a bull market is upon us? To answer him I had to provide some context, as follows. The table below shows a list of the top 14...

Japan Government Says Economy Back In DeflationRolfe Winkler Fri Nov 20, 2009 1:03am EST TOKYO, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Japan's government said for the first time since 2006 that the economy was back in deflation, warning of the risk that price falls may pressure a fragile economy barely out of its worst recession in decades. The announcement came as the Bank of Japan kept interest rates near zero and upgraded its economic assessment, despite grumblings from the government, which is worried about price falls and the risk of another recession. "Recent price developments show that the Japanese economy is in...

Public shifting blame for recession.....

More than 14 percent of borrowers were in trouble on their mortgage during the third quarter, a new record, according to an industry survey released Thursday, which also suggests that the foreclosure rate is likely not to peak until next year as unemployment rates continue to rise. Unemployment remains a big driver of the problem, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, which conducts the survey. Those with delinquent loans now include a growing portion of people traditionally considered creditworthy and people whose mortgages are insured by the Federal Housing Administration. "The outlook is that delinquency rates and foreclosure rates will...

The latest economic polling from CNN shows an interesting trend. The biggest of which may be the closing of the window for the Democrat's blame of George Bush for everything from the lousy economy to the three traffic accidents had by Joe Biden's motorcade this week. As you may expect 82% of the country believe the economy is somewhat or very poor. But only 38 percent of America blames the GOP for current economic problems. In May 53% blamed the GOP. The poll reported that 27% blame the Democrats for the recession, up from 19%. The number who blame both...

THE ONLY REAL SURPRISE in the latest disastrous batch of data on housing is that anybody is surprised. With the $8,000 tax credit originally set to expire, housing starts plunged nearly 11% in October, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529.000 units. That put new home construction back to the dismal levels of last spring before a temporary blip lifted housing activity during the warm-weather months. Even though the home-buying subsidy was extended through next March and expanded beyond first-time buyers, there's little evidence that these giveaways are working. Applications for mortgages for home purchases, for instance, fell to...

WASHINGTON -- Mayors from four U.S. cities said they are facing a once-in-a-generation fiscal crisis and that federal stimulus funds have, so far, been largely unhelpful in helping them balance budgets hit by steep drops in nearly every source of municipal revenue. The comments, from mayors of Philadelphia, San Jose, Calif; Mesa, Ariz., and Bowling Green, Ky., at a panel discussion sponsored by the Brookings Institution and the National League of Cities, underscore how the recession for local government is far from over. Mesa's mayor, Scott Smith, said the steep drops in sales-tax revenue, the city's primary source of money,...

"A Truly Extraordinary Slump": Reports Of Robust Recovery Premature, James Galbraith Says Posted Nov 19, 2009 01:51pm EST by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession Disappointing reports this week on housing starts and foreclosures, as well as the index of leading economic indicators, have cast a bit of a pall on the "robust recovery" story, putting a crimp in the stock market's ascent in the process. University of Texas professor James Galbraith was never a believer in the V-shaped recovery and says it's going to take a very long time for the U.S. to recover from a "truly extraordinary slump." What...

TAMPA - Business owners in Florida are about to get hit with a big tax hike: starting January 1st, all Florida businesses will have to pay skyrocketing unemployment compensation taxes to replenish the unemployment compensation trust fund.

Costco nixes Coke products over pricing dispute Costco customers may have to look elsewhere for Coca-Cola products now that the retailer has stopped carrying them because the pair are fighting over prices. By EMILY FREDRIX and SARAH SKIDMORE, AP Food Industry Writers ATLANTA — Costco customers may have to look elsewhere for Coca-Cola products now that the retailer has stopped carrying them because the pair are fighting over prices. The public squabble between one of the nation's largest wholesale club operators and the world's largest soft drink maker is likely to fizzle quickly. But it reveals real tensions as retailers...

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy will be the guest on Bloomberg TV Asia's "Asia Confidential" program with moderator Bernard Lo from 10 to 11 p.m. ET Thursday. The show tried to get someone from the gold market establishment to debate Murphy about the specifics of the gold price suppression scheme, but, predictably enough, there were no takers. Kitco gold market analyst Jon Nadler said he was washing his hair, Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter said he was still trying to find his, and World Gold Council Chairman Aram Shishmanian said he'd love to but had a conflicting appointment to interview...

(snip) "We participated in things that were clearly wrong and have reason to regret," said Goldman Sachs’ Lloyd Blankfein. "We apologize." Blankfein had told a British newspaper the other day that Goldman was doing “God’s work”. That caused a firestorm online. (snip)

The Effectiveness Of Fiscal And Monetary Stimulus In Depressions Miguel Almunia Agustín S. Bénétrix Barry Eichengreen Kevin H. O’Rourke Gisela Rua 18 November 2009 There is one important source of information on the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal stimulus in an environment of near-zero interest rates, dysfunctional banking systems and heightened risk aversion that has not been fully exploited: the 1930s. This column gathers data on growth, budgets and central bank policy rates for 27 countries covering the period 1925-39 and shows that where fiscal policy was tried, it was effective. The debate over the effectiveness of stimulus rages on...

BEIJING – President Barack Obama says he's worried that spending too much money to help revive the economy could undermine a fragile U.S. recovery and throw the economy into a double-dip recession. That's when the economy begins to recover briefly from a recession only to be dragged back under. Obama told Fox News in an interview Wednesday that his administration is weighing tax breaks that could encourage businesses to begin hiring again.

For months economists have been warning that the President's economic policies could be driving the US into a "double-dip" recession. A "double-dip" recession, occurs when the economy has a recession, emerges from the recession for a short period of growth, and quickly falls back into recession. The recession of the early 1980s is an example of a W-shaped recession. The economy fell into recession from January 1980 to July 1980, shrinking at an 8 percent annual rate from April to June of 1980. The economy then entered a quick period of growth, and in the first three months of 1981...

BEIJING (Reuters) - President Barack Obama gave his sternest warning yet about the need to contain rising U.S. deficits, saying on Wednesday that if government debt were to pile up too much, it could lead to a double-dip recession. With the U.S. unemployment rate at 10.2 percent, Obama told Fox News his administration faces a delicate balance of trying to boost the economy and spur job creation while putting the economy on a path toward long-term deficit reduction.

Expecting A V-Shaped Recovery? Consider Yourself Warned Mike Mish Shedlock Nov 17, 2009 3:05 pm Bad news is on the horizon -- and it's taking the form of a different letter. Yesterday, Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher threw a little cold water on the V-shaped recovery madness everyone seems to be buying into these days. Please consider Fed's Fisher: GDP Growth In Third Quarter Likely Lower Than Reported. Speaking at a conference in Tyler, Texas, Fisher said he was willing to venture that the increase would not be "as robust as originally reported." He did say, however, that the...

UK Inflation Rises For The First Time Since FebruaryInflation rose for the first time in eight months in October in what economists say is the start of a string of increases as fuel costs climb across the economy. Published: 11:36AM GMT 17 Nov 2009 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) - the measure used by the Bank to set interest rates - is now 1.5pc higher than a year ago, thanks in part to the steep fall seen in oil prices a year ago. City experts had forecast that CPI would climb to 1.4pc. October's rise was also spurred by a...

The road north across the Golden Gate leads to some of the prettiest counties in North America. Yet behind the lovely rolling hills, wineries, ranches and picturesque once-rural towns lies a demographic time bomb that neither political party is ready to address. Paradise is having a problem with the evolving economy. A generational conflict is brewing, pitting the interests and predilections of well-heeled boomers against a growing, predominately Latino working class. And neither the emerging "progressive" politics nor laissez-faire conservatism is offering much in the way of a solution. These northern California counties--which include Sonoma, Napa, Solano and Marin--have become...

Miracle Or Mirage? "China Is Very Much At Risk," Gary Shilling Says Posted Nov 17, 2009 07:30am EST by Aaron Task Tensions over economic policies were on full display on the eve of President Obama's trip to China. First, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao urged the U.S. to keep its deficit to an "appropriate size." Then China's top bank regulator, Liu Mingkang, said America's weak dollar policies had created "unavoidable risks" for the global economic recovery. In between, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner reiterated America's dedication to a strong dollar policy. Not coincidentally, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke expressed similar sentiments in a...

The growing view that the economy is embarking on a self-sustaining recovery that could be similar in duration to the average expansionary cycle over the past century brings me to a new segment I like to call "Really!?! With Doug." Of course, this is a takeoff from "Saturday Night Live's" Amy Poehler and Seth Meyers. If you are not familiar with their "SNL" schtick during their Weekend Updates, here are a few of their Really!?! segments. Really, the economy is recovering? Really, economists? I mean, really!?! With globalization, wage deflation and with the prospects of tepid top-line sales growth, which...

President Barack Obama is expected to inform Asian leaders that they should not count on American consumers to supply the demand that will help pull the global economy out of its current recession. “The era of material greed must come to an end,” Obama declared. “I can’t directly affect the phenomenon of avarice in other countries, but I can try to set an example in my own.” The President acknowledged that the unemployment rate in the United States “has already taken a bite out of the consumer gluttony traditionally manifested in American life. But we must not lose what we...

A friend emailed this to me. It is one of the most eloquently put descriptions of what small business is about that I have ever read. It describes the reality of the world in which we live and work today. It also describes the future we may have to deal with as it relates to taxes, healthcare, etc.

Thrift Spoils Everything In A Consumer Economy By Joel Bowman 11/15/09 Taipei, Taiwan – “Those damned consumers and their whiny confidence readings!” the Feds must be cursing. Sentiment dropped to its lowest in three months, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index. Apparently the consumers aren’t reading the papers. Don’t they know a recovery is underway? After all, the S&P finished up for a second straight week, higher by around 2.5% since Monday’s open. The markets are 60% above the 12-year low set back in March, and within a whisper of recouping half the losses since they fell from...

To The Barkers: Answer This QuestionThe Market TickerSunday, November 15. 2009 Posted by Karl Denninger in Editorial "The recession ended in June": Dennis Kneale "The recession was definitely over in September": Any one of a number of people. Ok. Let's say that I accept all this at face value, even though while driving through my definitely-beach-oriented local town here this afternoon I noted even more closed-and-gone storefronts than there were a couple of weeks ago, and last night at the local open-air mall, although the evening was absolutely gorgeous, you could have fired a 155mm Howitzer down the "main drag"...

Manic-depressive Stock Market Inviting A Black Swan Event? Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009 Nov 14, 2009 - 08:51 AM By: Anthony_Cherniawski Guess Where Our Economic Stimulus Money is Going The trade deficit in the U.S. widened in September by the most in a decade, reflecting rising demand for imported oil and automobiles as the economy rebounded from the worst recession since the 1930s. The gap grew a larger-than-anticipated 18 percent to $36.5 billion, the highest level since January, from a revised $30.8 billion in August, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Imports surged by the most in 16 years,...

With the official unemployment rate topping 10 percent and the “unofficial” rate approaching 20%, President Barack Obama has sought to reverse his plunging job approval numbers by launching what he calls a “domestic employment initiative.” “I am calling on the wealthiest 10% of Americans to help out the 10 percent who are unemployed by hiring them as domestic servants or personal aides,” Obama announced. “Even in these hard times, the upper crust of our society has more money than they need and lives in bigger houses than necessary. So, the means and infrastructure to support my initiative are already present....

WASHINGTON — Fewer people are claiming unemployment benefits — but still too many to signal that the economy is close to gaining jobs. First-time claims for jobless benefits dropped last week to a seasonally adjusted 502,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the fewest claims since the week ending Jan. 3, and below economists' estimates. Claims would have to fall to the high 400s to indicate the economy could soon produce even a slight gain in jobs, estimates Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan Chase. That level of claims could be reached by January, he said, and the economy should...

Looking at Unemployment Another Way Still Says 13% by Mid-2010 Andrew Butter November 13, 2009 In response to an article I wrote a month ago plus an update I put out on my Instablog, I got this from Jérôme Fabre: By that logic, perhaps the peak in unemployment might be somewhere around March 2010. Eyeballing that chart, “traditionally”, unemployment seems to go down in a bad recession to reach a point where 56% of the population is employed (i.e. down from about 59%). If that’s right then by the bottom there might be another eight million unemployed, which could bring...

The State Of The American Economy In One Chart Economics / US Debt Nov 12, 2009 - 01:31 PM By: Ceri_Shepherd They say a picture paints a thousand words. Well this picture paints very clearly the American Economy for the last 30 years. Ever decreasing Bond Yields which = EVER EXPANDING DEBT. The chart below shows that interest rates have been decreasing by approximately 0.5% every 2 years. Put simply, As the price of debt becomes cheaper more is created and then spent, and that effectively is the economy. In 1981 the 30 year bond which is a good approximation...

Continuing Deflation In The “Real Economy” By Bill Bonner 11/10/09 Montevideo, Uruguay – Financiers have the world’s financial system in a “doom loop,” says the Bank of England. We’ve thought so ourselves. The bankers take money from the government and use it to speculate, not to lend. “Excess” reserves are at a record high as consumer credit continues to decline. Most people find it both galling and absurd to see the bankers getting $10 million bonuses while there is 10% unemployment. Here at The Daily Reckoning, it’s just a matter of curiosity. You’d think there would be more wage competition...

Realizing the Fraud of Economic Recovery By Bill Bonner 11/10/09 Montevideo, Uruguay – The Dow rose 200 points yesterday, bringing it only about 75 points below the 10,300 level. Why is the 10,300 mark important? It’s not really…it’s just the point where this bounce will equal the bounce following the crash of ’29. No reason in particular that this bounce should be the same as the one 80 years ago. But no reason it shouldn’t either. Gold rises with the stock market. The yellow metal hit a new record over $1,100 yesterday. Why is that that important? Well, it’s not...