Is there an average global temperature?

American Thinker ^ | March 18, 2007 | James Lewis

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks ND.

Ross-Lempriere benchmark
http://www.john-daly.com/deadisle/index.htm

[ReleaseTheHounds]

A pertinent quote from Lord Kelvin: “To measure is to know. If you can not measure it, you can not improve it.”

[cobaltblu]

So true. The people complaining about global warming are probably taking temperatures from heat islands in urban areas.

[bvw]

"Meaningless" is not harsh enough. The average temperature in even simple dynamic systems tells nothing about the dynamics of the system, total heat value tells you more, but no one in today's global warming crowd talks about that -- why? Because then we are talking about the most significant *by far* source of heat on Earth -- the Sun.

And the Sun is apolitical.

[bvw]

How complex that model must be! It's a three phase system number one -- gaseous, liquid and solid phases all coexisting. The heat released in phase transitions is enormous, yet we do not have models that accurately model those phase exchanges -- or so I hazard to guess, knowing already how difficult that is to do in a boiler, how much more difficult it would be to on open seas, or even in mountains covered with ice. What is the surface area of liquid water on Earth, what is the surface area of ice? How does one handle puddles, flowing water, even dew on the grasslands!

More .... there is SO MUCH more to global models -- ground water, soil absorbtion and release rates, the type and stress level of vegetation, on and on ...

[ModelBreaker]

Of course there is a number which is the average global temperature at any given time.

I think the article says something a little different. It says: (1) that there are an infinite number of ways to measure average global temperature (so there is no single "number" that represents "average" global temperature); (2) that the different ways of calculating the "average" global temperature produce different conclusions about whether we are warming or cooling; (3) There is no known reason to prefer one way of measuring "average" over the others; and (4) This problem is not measurement-based or definitional. It is inherent to out-of-equilibrium physical systems and we have no way to solve it given our current state of knowledge.

In other words, the author argues that, given our state of knowledge about the physics of the earth as a thermodynamic system, our conclusion about whether the earth is warming or cooling is entirely dependent on an arbitrary decision--which measurement of average we use (this conclusion assumes that we have valid measurements historically--another issue the author touches on).

Accordingly, the real conclusion of the article is that the proponents of global warming first need to justify their arbitrary decision to use the gridded, ad-hoc, average figure as a proxy for . . . well, something. It's not even clear, as I think about it, what the climate folks are using average as a proxy for.

[SunkenCiv]

This apropos quote was pointed out to me:

The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it. -- H. L. Mencken

[bvw]

As a proxy for political power -- for control of the masses.

[ModelBreaker]

As a proxy for political power -- for control of the masses.

One could certainly develop good, contemporary statistical evidence that it's a good proxy for that. LOL.

[ModelBreaker]

And the Sun is apolitical.

Not right now. Seems he's intervening on the side of the conservatives.

[mc5cents]

I used to teach TA in statistics as a grad student.

Ah, then you must be familuar with this quote by Mark Twain:

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

You can pretty much "prove" anything with satistics.

Don't make it true however.

[hosepipe]

[... Is there an average global temperature? ..]

Depends on WHERE you are...

[Question Liberal Authority]

It has adopted such an increasingly hard-Greenie bias in recent years that I finally canceled my subscription. A shame.

Odd, for a magazine that nobody ever recycles and nobody ever throws away.

National Geographic, the Doomsday Machine

http://www.jir.com/geographic.html