Skip to comments.Blair convenes Cobra team as crisis in Iran escalates
Posted on 03/25/2007 5:17:55 AM PDT by Dog
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It's just a matter of time
The Iranian strategy seems to be to try to drive a wedge between the US and Britain by conditioning the release of British soldiers on the US releasing the Iranians. I don't believe they really have any interest in their spies. This is all about divide and conquer.
I think the Iranians do not understand Western reaction to the taking of our soldiers. That is the flaw in their strategy and I think it will cost them. When Western soldiers are taken hostage, Western leaders are essentially given a blank check by the public when it comes to military force. That means the Iranians just voided their greatest asset - Western peace advocates in the media and on the left.
Blair convened them to explain why they won't be used. This will be yet another victory for those who dare, and yet another demoralizing loss for the West, who won't bother to defend itself, lest it appear like a "bully".
Another brick in the wall.
I hope the Ahmadinadjab just hit the fan.
If they wanted to launch a military conflict they would do so in such a way as to maximise their inital advantage as long as possible. Cutting off oil offers no advantage whatsoever and only sets themselves up for instant retaliation.
"This went nowhere. The Iranians calculated that the British would not do anything other than talk, and they are correct."
Iran is trying to justify their ownership over this territory. They also know the British soldiers will confess which will make their case stronger in the UN.
This was a good play by Iran. They raised the stakes and have nothing to lose by this. Get the confessions, release the sailors and the British will back off.
Notice how the MSM is not really reporting this? They don't want Americans to gain sympathy for England which will make Americas case for doing something about this.
I think this has gone far enough.
It's time to stop letting these terrorists humiliate our country.
What a complete bunch of pussies we look like. Being bullied by islamo facists. I'm actually pretty ashamed and embarrassed.
If were up to me, I'd give them one very public warning to return our service folks and the equiptment that have illegally stole, or we are going in to get them ourselves.
I am very worried that Blair is going to cock this up tp appease the population.
It's a shambles.
It used to... if Britain invokes Article 5, then we are obligated to aid in her defense... which means that GWB does not have to go to Congress for a declaration of war before orderinf troops to Iran. Sadly, Blair won't have the stones for it.
I agree, but...when was the last time that we went in and used our force to wage war? Grenada? American guilt will always win the day.
"The Iranians don't want a a military responce from the West. They'll use this situation to their advantage while still keeping their asses safe."
If this is true, then I wonder if it's all the more reason something should be done militarily. Rendering their calculations of our (the wests) response, to UNSURE and likely UNWISE.
The response should have been, "Sink it"
We're told that women should be included in combat roles for various reasons, but here's the downside. The article wouldn't have included that factoid if it didn't play on people's sympathies.
"The Shatt al-Arab 15 were, from the start, pawns in a perilous international game.
"It looks like too much of a coincidence," a senior Foreign Office insider confirmed.
I always thought, and still think, they were pawns right from the time they were taken.
A sad incident that hopefully will be resolved through negotiations. Probably an exchange of the British intelligence agents with the Iranians captured in Iraq?
I agree. They've seen that they can get away with this, and they'll do it from time to time. I think it's aimed at boosting their regional profile, since Iran wants to be seen as the dominant player in the ME. This is part of its advertising campaign, so to speak. And it has learned that there will be no cost to Iran.
you mustn't have children that would be eligible for draft in a few years.
Is the draft such a terrible thing? Is service in the US Military something to be avoided at any cost?
It must be - Bill Clinton ran in terror from it.
We already had that, it was called the Cold War.
We are currently in World War IV.
There, all fixed.
Must be in Hillary's lockbox (Limey poofters notwithstanding).
How's that "Third Way" working out, Tony?
I hereby re-christen that boat the HMS Cornwallis.
No champagne bottle against the hull, please. That might offend the Muslims!
This had nothing to do with territory .....those 5 seized "diplomats" seized in Ibril....must be the motherlode of info....because a faction in the IRGC caused an international incident to get them back.
"Are you for real, you obviously want world war 3, you mustn't have children that would be eligible for draft in a few years. I just love all this chest pounding."
Some don't have children to send. Some won't send their chidlren. While others are affected by doublethink, or the concept of holding two contradictory ideas in one's mind and accepting both of them.
What "British intelligence agents" are you talking about????
Commodore Nick Lambert, frantically radioed back to his own top brass for instructions.
THERE IS YOUR PROBLEM
at least they did not contact gender bias attorney/regulator, and intercultural expert along with UN appointed attorney, but sure thats next
to borrow from recent historical revival, one wonders if the success of 300 stand at Thermopylae had a lot to do with chain of command being upfront in first line taking down the obvious threat
If someone isn't willing to agree with you bunch of yahoos they must be a Democrat, this forum used to have a more intellectual conversation about 5 years ago now all we have are abunch of chest thumping, bible thumping yahoos. If you all want war so bad sign up! Go on over! Just stop pounding your chests and sending someone else over, walk the talk! And then after you get over there you can hear all the politicians wring their hands that everything we've done is a mistake. I'm not the sissy, the sissy is the the one who starts the fight for someone else to fight. Prove what a manly man you are and go on over! Bombs away!
"To be honest I cannot see this escalating much further. There will probably be some humiliating mock trial/confession for the media to boost internal morale in Iran, then they will be released."
As we're chatting here the US and Britain are probably negotiating through their diplomats for the release of the intelligence agents. But I doubt they will be released w/o an arms lenght exchange.
Macho Americans need to hold their horses and stand ready to help when the Brits ask. If you want allies, you cannot overpower them at every turn. In a way that nobody seems to understand Bush has gotten the Europeans fighting in Afghanistan and Lebanon by not always one-upping them. Alliances Dems complain about are actually stronger now and functioning better.
I bet the UN will send Iran a very stern warning in writing that will get them released. /sarc off
It reminds me of how you would treat a bratty kid rather thana country that has stated its willingness and desire to destroy other countries. Absolutely pathetic.
you said it. they should start sinking Iran naval craft asap. see if that makes a point. If Jimmy carter had sack when they took our embassy guys we wouldnt be in Iraq today IMHO
What intelligence agents are you talking about? The sailors and Marines were part of a routine patrol that inspects ships for smuggling activities. They had just finished inspecting a dhow, so we're not even talking about inspecting anything very significant in the shipping world. And they just were in rubber rafts, so it wasn't really a high-risk seizure (since the Iranians were pretty confident that there'd be no attempt to stop them).
As for the Iranian intelligence agents, they were captured in Iraq; and the one who defected, if that's what happened, is certainly not going back.
I don't think there'll be any "exchange," but on the other hand, I don't think this is going to be a major crisis. It's just a typical part of Iranian behavior, and we have tolerated this kind of thing for nearly 40 years now, so there's no reason to expect a change. They'll get some propaganda value out of it and then realease the sailors.
No need to be pessimistic or worry about it too much.
This incident will soon be resolved with an exchange of the Iranians diplomats snatched by the Iraqis.
I think the Iranians want their people back just as the British want theirs back. This is a case for diplomacy and Blair is using the correct approach to resolve it.
Read the article again. This happened a few years ago and nothing was done. The Iranians still have the equipment.
"If Jimmy carter had sack when they took our embassy guys we wouldnt be in Iraq today IMHO"
There is a lot to be said about that, and I wonder just how different the situation might be today, if there had been a serious military response. It seems to me, this is the debate about this new hostage crisis. What SHOULD be done, what is IMPORTANT to do, and what are the consequences of RESPONDING or NOT RESPONDING in a certain way.
"Iran seized the British sailors in Iraqi waters, so an attempt to justify ownership of Iraqi territory does not make sense."
When Iraq invaded Iran, part of it had to deal with ownership of the waterwaty. The Iranians are accusing the British of being on their sovereign territory illegally. Right now that is the issue.
Were they? If they were in Iranian territory, then technically the British sailors can be considered spies and any negotiation on Irns part is from strength.
If it is Iraqi territory and Britain backs down then it only emboldens Iran to do more. So the British better do something to make Iran back away.
First you call the british navy personnel who were captured "intellegence agents" and now you call the Iranians caught in Iraq "diplomats". Who are are?
These are quotes from Iran I collected over the past two years
The final goal of the revolution is to create global Islamic rule and a regime of law to be led by the Imam Mahdi. - commandant of Irans elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi
an advisor to the new Iranian govt says his countrys objective is the destruction of the evil in the world perputated by England and the nations derived from England
commandant of Irans elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, said on state television, The final goal of the  revolution is to create global Islamic rule and a regime of law to be led by the Imam Mahdi. God willing, the 21st century will see the defeat of the U.S. and the Zionists, and the victory of freedom-seeking nations of the world.
Commandant of Irans elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, said on state television. God willing, the 21st century will see the defeat of the U.S. and the Zionists, and the victory of freedom-seeking nations of the world. The final goal of the  revolution is to create global Islamic rule and a regime of law to be led by the Imam Mahdi.
The [Iranians] Presidents chief strategist, Hassan Abbassi, has come up with a war plan based on the premise that Britain is the mother of all evils the evils being America, Australia, New Zealand, Israel, the Gulf states and even Canada, all of whom are the malign progeny of the British Empire. We have a strategy drawn up for the destruction of Anglo-Saxon civilization, says Mr Abbassi. There are 29 sensitive sites in the U.S. and in the West. We have already spied on these sites and we know how we are going to attack them Once we have defeated the Anglo-Saxons the rest will run for cover.
The IRGC chief warned that Iran was seeing through critical days and fate-determining years. He described the purpose of Irans 1979 Islamic revolution as the Salvation of Muslims from the hands of the oppressive U.S. and Israel.
no question if jimmy carter had turned the us air force loose on Iran immeadiately that they took the embassy and continued bombing until the embassy guys were either released , or god forbid, executed we would not be in iraq and al qaeda would not have attacked NYC.
why? because that first act of us cowardice and weakness, by carter, set the pattern for everything to folow: BEIRUT, MOGADISHU, Bush 1 not getting it done in Iraq the first time, bill clinton fanning on osama bin laden, etc etc etc.
History is clear. the choice is not war or peace. the choice is:
small war now, or big war later masquerading as peace now.
now we got the big war. thanks Jimmy Carter.
Who are are = Who are you?
What in the world would we need a draft for? Do you think we'll be sending land troops into Iran? Maybe you never heard of the ICBM or SLBM.
"Who are you?"
I believe bau bau is a place in Indonesia. Make of it what you will.
"The United States should immediately bomb and destroy Iran's oil pipelines, shutting off their supply of money in the process, wrecking their economy if they don't meet our demands. Imagine that! We demand!
These tin-horned dictators seem to forget that the United States has the power to vaporize their countries in about one hour. They need to be physically reminded."
I agree! Action should be taken immediately!! Iran should be told they have just hours to release the Brits or else!
you think Iran is in this JUST to get their agents back?? This is a huge power play with a lot more at stake than a few abducted soldiers. There are U.S. troops and military assets in Iraq, Afganistan, Arabian Sea, etc. practically surrounding Iran. Their nuke program is under intense global scrutiny. They just got hit with more U.N. sanctions. Significant domestic dissent.
These abducted soldiers are just pawns in a bigger higher stakes game. And while you may be right that a simple exchange of prisoners may be how this is resolved, it also (at least from the Iranian perspective) serves to take the focus off some of the other issues they are dealing with
"now we got the big war. thanks Jimmy Carter."
I wonder if Jimmuh ever lets this notion slip into his thinking about the current world situation?
I wonder how much of this is influenced by what happened when Hezbollah captured one (or more?) Israeli soldiers at the northern border of Israel. I agree, I don't Iran is doing this just to get back their agents.
Given the heated level of your rhetoric, and your apparent inability to challenge anyone about this on an intellectual plane--resorting instead to personal insults and stereotypes--I suspect that you are a liberal.
You got some kids? Send them over we'll show the world how brave I am!
Those "kids" are well trained men and women and most of them signed up and volunteered to go over there because they are the mission.
If someone isn't willing to agree with you bunch of yahoos they must be a Democrat
Well, you do seem to talk like a duck.
Actually that is more what I was saying...Smoke 'em if you got 'em!
Maybe *that's* how John Kerry got confused as to his whereabouts in Cambodia, eh? No GPS!
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