Posted on 04/03/2007 8:45:20 AM PDT by areafiftyone
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A lot of attention has been focused in recent days on the potential candidacy of former Republican senator Fred Thompson. Less than two weeks ago, Thompson indicated that he might jump into the race. When included in the late March USA Today/Gallup Poll shortly thereafter, he came in third among Republicans when asked who they support for their party's nomination -- behind Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.
In addition to being a lawyer and former senator from Tennessee, Thompson is a television and movie actor starring in recent years as a tough district attorney in the top-rated Law and Order TV series. But the extent to which Thompson's image is dominated by his acting as opposed to his "real world" lawyer and senator roles is unclear.
In order to remedy this situation, Gallup asked a random sample drawn from the national Gallup Poll panel of Americans to answer this question: "What comes to your mind when you think about former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson?"
The results show that a large number of Republicans don't know much at all about Thompson. A small percentage of those who do know him say he would be a good president, but others either talk about his acting career or offer vague generalities such as "I like him" or "Nice guy."
What comes to your mind when you think about former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson? [OPEN-ENDED]
|
2007 Mar 26-29 |
National Adults |
Repub-licans |
Indepen-dents |
Demo-crats |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Actor/television and movie actor |
11 |
7 |
11 |
15 |
|
Like him |
4 |
7 |
3 |
3 |
|
Would be a good president/Want him to run |
4 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
|
Good/decent man/nice guy |
4 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
|
Law and Order |
4 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
|
Not a viable candidate/Won't vote for him |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
Politician |
1 |
1 |
2 |
* |
|
Conservative/True conservative |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
Well-spoken/Good speaker |
1 |
2 |
1 |
- |
|
Republican |
1 |
- |
1 |
2 |
|
Honest/trustworthy |
1 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
|
Intelligent |
* |
- |
1 |
1 |
|
Other |
3 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
|
Nothing/not familiar with |
58 |
59 |
57 |
58 |
|
No opinion |
9 |
8 |
11 |
9 |
|
* = Less than 0.5% |
||||
What is most interesting about these data is the fact that two-thirds of Americans say that nothing at all comes to mind when they think about "Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson." In other words, despite his acting career, Thompson is not among the ranks of well-known politicians at this point.
The data show that Americans who have an opinion of Thompson are essentially as likely to mention his acting career, including specific mentions of Law and Order, as they are other characteristics. References to his thespian activities are followed in rank order by rather vague references to his being a "nice guy" or that "I like him," that he would make a good president, and in slightly smaller numbers, the assertion that he would not make a good president.
There is no significant difference in the number of Republicans who are able to come up with any association with Thompson and the number of independents and Democrats. About two-thirds of all three partisan groups draw a blank.
Republicans, however, are slightly less likely to mention Thompson's acting and slightly more likely to mention other factors, including the generic "I like him," and "he's a nice guy" explanations. Only a small percentage of Republicans mention anything more specific about Thompson. Two percent each say that he is conservative, that he is a good speaker, and that he is honest. Bottom Line
The data discussed in this report were gathered in a new survey, not the earlier one, which found that 12% of Republicans support Fred Thompson for their party's nomination. Thus, it is not possible to examine the views of Thompson held by those who say they would vote for him.
These data certainly support the hypothesis that Thompson's appeal, at this point, does not cut deeply into the ranks of Republicans. Because two-thirds of Republicans nationwide do not have any image of Thompson whatsoever, it suggests that his work is cut out for him if he enters the race and expects to win his party's nomination next year -- a challenge he shares with other less well-known candidates.
It would appear that the smaller number of Republicans who do know Thompson like him, and 12% obviously like him enough to make him their first choice for the GOP nomination. Thompson's appeal to those Republicans who support him at this point may result from a vague notion that he could be the "conservative who could win" the Republican presidential nomination, rather than from a well-defined picture of his political career or issue positions. And, of course, even among those who know Thompson, his image is built to a certain degree off his acting career. There is little sign here that Republican voters are highly knowledgeable about Thompson's record or position on specific issues. Survey Methods
Results for this panel study are based on telephone interviews with 1,006 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-29, 2007. Respondents were randomly drawn from Gallup's nationally representative household panel, which was originally recruited through random selection methods. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Sorry if the chart came out weird. I have a hard time with charts and HTML.
Now, if this is the same in November and December, that could be problematic.
We will see how it goes. The More he procrastinates the more he will fade away. He has to make a decision sooner rather than later.
If asked I would say:
He was twice a senator.
He acted in Law and Order and The Hunt For Red October, among other things.
He seems MOR Republican.
To know him is to like him, apparently. And once he introduces himself to the electoral masses expect his numbers to jump from 12% to the head of the pack.
This poll indicates that Thompson has no chance.
Many of the folks who are for Fred have at least one clear vision of Fred's image - he ain't Rudy McRomney. The fact that Fred can jump to 14 percent in the latest Rasmussen poll (with Rudy plummeting to 26 percent) shows just how shallow the support for Rudy is. And the more pubbies learn about Rudy, the more will desert him.
I would say if he jumps in it will be Fred against Rudy unless he would want the VP slot with Romney. He seems to be kinda going in that direction (i.e. his dinner with the Romney guy).
This is a HUGE negative. Time is rapidly running out and the fact Thompson has done nothing but tease indicates he knows he has no chance and will not run.
The time to committ was yesterday for someone as apparently unknown as Fred. Personally I thought he would be much more defined in the peoples’ minds than is the case.
Timing is everything. The fact that he is already in the thick of things without actually spending one red cent at this point speaks volumes about his potential, IMO.
And those negative numbers that keep dogging HRC must have her in a real tizzy currently.
That's a laugh. In the latest Rasmussen poll, Fred jumped to 14 percent while Rudy plummeted to 26 percent. Rudy's problem is that more and more pubbies are discovering what he really is about. The opposite is true with Fred - as more pubbies find out what he's about, more will come over to support him.
Believe me if he wasn’t on Law & Order most people would not know who he is. Most people identify TV personalities before they identify politicians. We live in a Hollywierd world!
The great thing about this article is that it may prompt more people to go and see who this “Thompson” dude is!
Once again, it shows just how shallow Rudy's support is that such a person could hoover so many points away from Rudy.
This is far worse for Rudy than Fred.
We will see. I heard in the interview with Lamar Alexander Fred will probably wait till Labor day to decide. He must be so sure of himself because thats a long time to wait.
Another day Another Great White Hope. Now that it is clear to almost all that Hunter, Paul, Tancredo are as popular with the voters as Booker T. Washington at a KKK Konvention some other Going Nowhere nominee has to be dragged up.
The smell of desperation is getting to be overwhelming.
I’m hoping we’ll hear something by Memorial day. Mid summer at the latest. Any later than that would most likely cast serious doubt on his ability to pull ahead of the pack.
Rudy’s “plummet” is within the margin of error. His support is in the 25-35% range. That is in a National poll. It is when you examine the actual state primaries that it becomes clear he will be very hard to beat.
Rudy will be pretty much unbeatable north of the Mason-Dixon line and in the West. He may not get a majority of the votes but will have a large plurality. In Califoria it is 19 points about McCain.
I don’t need an image .. I know how he votes!
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