[Jedi Master Pikachu]

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[4rcane]

war predictions based on a computer simulation? huh????

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

If current treads persist, Taiwan definitely will not be able to win a war with the PRC (at least from a secular point of view).

[rickdylan]

My own solution to the problem would be to pick the darkest night of the month, take everything we have which moves on water, and pull the entire population of Taiwan back either to that Northwest corner of Australia which is populated mainly if not entirely by reptiles or to one of our own island posessions several thousand miles back from China, along with all their infrastructure and valuables, and tell the chicoms they can have the empty island of Taiwan.

They may have a claim to the island; they hve no possible claim to the millions of people who moved to that island to escape their fubar government.

[CarrotAndStick]

Even Vietnam once handed the Chinese their @sses on a war in the early ‘80s. But still, this is a new China, and sparing room for over-confidence will be deadly to Taiwan.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Wasn’t there a computer simulation that showed that if Germany attacked France in 1940, they would make some progress in certain fronts but would be routed and decisively defeated? If not, there should have been. The French Army was larger, better equipped, had the advantage of fighting a defensive battle on their home ground.

No plan survives initial contact with the enemy.

[Tainan]

a rather....optimistic outcome projection.

he said in a supreme understatement.

[taxcontrol]

The only problem is, China could do it one year, and then after a year, come back and do it again.

[mkjessup]

Computer simulations notwithstanding, this sounds more like a not-so-subtle message to Beijing that if they try invading, it is going to cost them dearly.

If tensions were to dramatically increase, it would not surprise me if Taipei announced that they too, have joined the nuclear weapons club, and are not afraid to use them if necessary.

In fact, that might be the only message that the ChiComs would understand. They might doubt U.S. resolve and miscalculate, but if their ‘renegade’ province (as they view Taiwan) tells them that they risk being nuked if they attack, they know to take it seriously.

[DogBarkTree]

Ive been to Taiwan a couple of times. I can tell you that they have known for 60 years that war will come with the mainland someday. Unless China nukes the island out of the Ocean they will find subduing the place to be very bloody and costly. The problems we had with tunnels in Viet Nam will pale to what the Chinese will meet. Taiwan has all kinds of things ready to put in play when the PRC launches. Taiwan would be China’s Viet Nam if they try to take it over.

[Popocatapetl]

A mainland D-Day invasion of China would have several critical elements:

1) Major attacks on the United States ports of Bremerton, Washington and San Diego, to impair the US Pacific Fleet, yet not obviously attacks by China. Possibly a third attack on the east coast.

2) A very large fifth column already in place and prepared to act in Taiwan.

3) A very large flotilla of military and commercial ships able to cross the Taiwan Strait.

4) A massive missile barrage concentrating on airfields and military bases.

5) Occupation of Taiwan’s major cities, which would make the mainland forces almost impossible to dislodge by the US.

The casualty assumption for mainland forces could be as high as 90%, assuming that survival of 10% of their forces would be enough to “win” a beachhead. (A similar assumption was made for the Normandy D-Day).

Every Chinese embassy around the world would go into full diplomatic efforts to proclaim that “China is now reunified, and any attack against any part of it is aggressive war by the United States.”

N.B.: While this would generally be the mainland plan of operations, I do not assert that it would work.

[sam_paine]

The "invaders" establish beachheads along Taiwan's west coast,

Unbelievable. AP strikes again. Not so subtle jab from AP against the Taiwanese "interlopers" that "stole" the rightful communist territory of Formosa?

[philled]

A computer simulation projected that China could land forces on rival Taiwan, but they would be repulsed after two weeks of fierce fighting and harsh losses to both sides

The computer then simulated that anthropogenic global warming will totally submerge the island by 2013 and wreak much more devastation than the invasion...

[redgolum]

Hmm.

I would love to see the details on this, but they are obviously secret.

[Centurion2000]

Four words for Taiwan victory

Bomb Three Gorges Dam

Break that and you've immediately made the cost of invasion too high.

[voletti]

Atta boy.

of course, dunno how far Democratic Taiwan would’ve anticipated commie Beijing’s willingness and ability to play scorched earth.....

In any case, pays to listen when Taipei is talking. Unlike, say, Arafart or Saddam or Musharraf, thy aren’t given to random hyperbole.