Skip to comments.New 2008 QPoll (Quinnipiac Poll - Hillary, Obama, Guiliani slide)
Posted on 05/03/2007 7:42:33 AM PDT by AFPhys
Quinnipiac has a new poll out on the 2008 Presidential Race. Note that the survey began Wednesday, April 25, the day before the Democrats held their first debate in Orangeburg, SC, and finished on Tuesday, May 1. On the Democratic side, both Clinton and Obama have taken a bit of a slide but still lead the rest of the pack, while Edwards got a solid bump:
Clinton 32 (-6 points versus last month's poll)
Obama 18 (-5)
Gore 14 (+3)
Edwards 12 (+6)
Richardson 3 (+1)
Biden 2 (+1)
Undecided 15 (+13)
For the Republicans, Giuliani took a pretty significant tumble which looks to have been almost entirely due to Fred Thompson's appearance, because the rest of the field remained pretty close to static:
Giuliani 27 (-13 points versus last month's poll)
McCain 19 (+1)
F. Thompson 14 (first time polled)
Gingrich 8 (-2)
Romney 8 (+1)
Undecided 16 (+1)
Head-to-Head Match Ups
Giuliani 49 - Clinton 40
Giuliani 44 - Obama 41
Giuliani 48 - Gore 41
McCain 46 - Clinton 41
McCain 42 - Obama 42
McCain 47 - Gore 41
F. Thompson 39 - Clinton 46
F. Thompson 34 - Obama 47
F. Thompson 37 - Gore 47
Giuliani 53/24 (+29)
Obama 46/18 (+28)
McCain 49/26 (+23)
Edwards 46/25 (+21)
F. Thompson 26/9 (+17)
Gore 49/41 (+8)
Romney 17/16 (+1)
Clinton 44/46 (-2)
Other numbers from the poll worth a mention: Democrats lead the generic ballot question by 9 points (43/34); 57% responded that Iraq is the "most important issue for the next President to deal with;" President Bush's job approval is at 35%; Congress' job approval is slightly higher at 39%; and the Supreme Court's job approval is at 58%.
Romney sneaks up a bit, but not importantly.
The Rudy supporters refuse to acknowledge it, but when you consider the unknown numbers, Fred’s numbers in the general matchups are WAY better than Rudy’s. Even if the unknowns go 2-1 against him, he still wins across the board.
Hitlery isn’t doing too well.
Meanwhile, it will be very intresting to see what factor an official announcement by Fred makes. Money has it he is announcing tomorrow at the Lincoln dinner then on Letterman (Leno?) that night. We'll see.
He's my man if he's in. If not, I'm for whoever beats Hillary.
Yeah, he's a bit of a sneaker, kind of like Gollum. And, like Gollum/Smeagol, he spends a lot of time arguing with himself about his beliefs (or lack thereof), his past, and his favorite color.
FWIW, He said the other night on Hannity that he wouldn't announce until June.
Utterly amazing there are so many Gorons out there, isn't it?
Well, I think the head-to-heads are a bit troubling for Thompson, but somehow I believe that they’re OK given the time until the elections. This is really way too early to do much more than preliminary estimating of chances.
LOL... Spitboy keeps harpin' that she 'won' the debate. The DBM is so in the bag for her that they can't help but lay it on thicker and thicker.
Fred can’t keep pushing this back. There are realities of campaiging in the 21st century, and delaying only reinforces the charge (by many Republicans) that Fred really doesn’t have the “fire in the belly” to run. I think that’s inaccurate, but the longer he waits, the truer it becomes.
What’s noteworthy about the democrats is that Gore (who is not running - har, har) is up to 14% - only a small margin behind the “aknowledged wonderboy by the media” Obama!
For a Quinnipiac poll, the Hillary camp cannot be happy. Great numbers for Fred...
What breaks me up is this: 35% of the public has ever heard of Fred Thompson; 9 % dislike him. But he polls THIRTY-NINE percent against Hillary.
IOW, a lot of Merkins are answering, “I don’t know who he is, but if he’s running against Hillary, I’ll vote for him.”
Yes, that is odd. Usually, someone will be undecided at best.
You think that being within 10 points when 65% have no opinion of you is troubling?
Who’s doing the cherry-picking? We know Giuliani is winning in general, but your chart deceptively suggests he’s making a clean sweep. The truth is Giuliani is losing in Iowa, he’s losing in New Hampshire, and he’s losing in South Carolina.
He’s winning where no-one has heard the other candidates. He’s losing where the battle has been joined.
These are important numbers - I want to see Fred Thompson match these numbers (now or eventually).
Then we know we have an option to Rudy's existing strength.
Conservative GOP strength is meaningless - if we cannot win the general election.
>> Fred cant keep pushing this back. There are realities of campaiging in the 21st century, and delaying only reinforces the charge (by many Republicans) that Fred really doesnt have the fire in the belly to run. I think thats inaccurate, but the longer he waits, the truer it becomes. <<
...until people see that he has fire in the belly. I think most people paying attention to such things (about 5% of the general public, tops) completely expect that he’s keeping his powder dry.
Well,, let take a look at those states - Electoral Votes:
New Hampshire = 4 Votes Iowa = 7 Votes S.C. = 8 Votes
Now where is has a clear and solid lead:
CA. = 55 Votes PA. = 21 Votes Ohio = 20 Votes
And your point is?
I agree with you, dangus.
As I wrote during the past week or so, I believe, “even if FredT announces in JANUARY, he will easily obtain the Republican nomination. In fact, it may well be that the later he announces, the better.”
I agree with you 100%
Fred would be a Tremendous candidate - but he’s gotta get in the game.
Reason? - there has to be one - no one delays for no reason.
Keep in mind - it’s not just the need to raise money - you HAVE to have an organization - State by State.
He’s not running for city council.
Do you know exactly how QP measures responses when someone says they “don’t know one of those persons” ... I sure don’t. If they only are including in the head-to-heads people who know the candidates, it IS a troubling situation.
Remember how you win the nomination - DELEGATES at the convention.
You have to have the organization to carry the delegates.
This is not a pure democracy.
Fred can be the most popular candidate in history - but you have to be able to organize the delegates.
Thompson will easily obtain both the small amount of cash he needs and the organization whenever he announces. There is no reason for him to rush his announcement.
Please FReepmail jellybean if you want on/off this list. WARNING: This ping list can often be extremely active.
Giuliani is crushing the Democratic front-runners.
That tells me all I have to know.
Wonder why Fred does so poorly against all three Dems though.
Again, there are realities to campaigning in the 21st century. We are in May, now, and the first primaries are seven months away. As we saw with Kerry, WHOEVER wins the first few gains so much momentum as to be almost unbeatable. These are the facts of life, and Fred supporters (of which I am one) cannot pretend they don’t exist.
I think that’s downright silly. I don’t think he has more than a window of another month or two at best.
Although he had hopped in earlier, Kerry had kept his powder dry, also, waiting for Dean to exhaust himself, and then riding in as the experienced, competent candidate. (Hard to imagine...)
I believe dangus is referring to the primaries.
Meanwhile I'm on the TOMMY Thompson bandwagon, who I think has demonstrated far better that he's 100% committed to this race and has the ablity to win the "swing states" (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, etc.) we need.
“even if FredT announces in JANUARY, he will easily obtain the Republican nomination”
so what’s the big deal about announcing? McCain only announced a few weeks ago and his numbers have been sinking like a stone.
It seems to me that once you announce you become a target.
Look I like Fred - I would support his as the GOP nominee 100% But you are dangerously wrong if you think he can wait and wait - and then throw a team together. It's not that simple.
Just heard Roger Hedgecock say CA’s prmiary is Feb. You cannot hope to use “mass media” and the Internet to campaign both there and in Iowa and New Hampshire. I’m sure Fred’s people are telling him this.
Even if they did do that, which is highly unlikely, the general election is NEXT NOVEMBER. I think Fred’s likable enough to make up 10-12 points in that amount of time. Doesn’t trouble me in the least.
You choose to agree with Morris and some other analysts.
I choose to agree with Gingrich and some others who have done analysis of this election cycle.
If Thompson chooses to wait until much later in the year, we’ll get to see which analysis is correct. I have a strong belief that there is going to be a great deal of candidate fatigue that sets in, and will work against those who have been campaigning for far too long.
In any event, we aren’t going to know the true answer any time soon, so we might as well both hold our fire on this argument. You have my express permission to say, “I told you so” if in the future I’m shown to be wrong.
I should have pinged you to my #37, too.
I hope, and I think you might be right.
We (the GOP) need Hillary to win the Dems nomination.
She is predictable.
Do you live in CA.? If so - where abouts?
Yes in the San Bernardino/Riverside area.
That is a powerful argument - and I think I agree with it. I'm already a "little" tired of all this. Not yet though. Wouldn't it great if Fred could prove all the experts wrong? I think it could change everything - and that would be great. This is too fun to watch - I love American politics.
I was born in Monterey - grew up there.
Then lived from 1985 to 2002 in Corona Del Mar - down in O.C.
Let me ask you - how do you and your friends like the job Arnold is doing?
May I ask?
I voted for Perot - so you know I will admit to being wrong. An idiot even...... Damn
Most of us have been there, and in spades.
Usually, my political instincts have been pretty good, though. We’ll just have to wait and see... it really is a loooooong time until the elections.
My more conservative friends feel he is holding back the tide (liberalism) and not much more. Less conservative republicans are more pleased and Democrats don’t seem to have a problem with him. My circle of friends and colleagues and they don’t talk about Arnold much anymore. They are starting to focus more on 2008 elections.
California is such a diverse state -
It has to be most politically confused state in the nation.
Nice talking to you.
My pleasure Jake.
A couple of "experts" (e.g. Stu Rothenberg) have already backed off of the conventional wisdom they adopted just a few months ago regarding the race.
So far all my assumptions from last fall are intact.
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