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New 2008 QPoll (Quinnipiac Poll - Hillary, Obama, Guiliani slide)
Real Clear Politics ^ | May 3, 2007 | Tom Bevan

Posted on 05/03/2007 7:42:33 AM PDT by AFPhys

Quinnipiac has a new poll out on the 2008 Presidential Race. Note that the survey began Wednesday, April 25, the day before the Democrats held their first debate in Orangeburg, SC, and finished on Tuesday, May 1. On the Democratic side, both Clinton and Obama have taken a bit of a slide but still lead the rest of the pack, while Edwards got a solid bump:

Democrats
Clinton 32 (-6 points versus last month's poll)
Obama 18 (-5)
Gore 14 (+3)

Edwards 12 (+6)
Richardson 3 (+1)
Biden 2 (+1)
Undecided 15 (+13)

For the Republicans, Giuliani took a pretty significant tumble which looks to have been almost entirely due to Fred Thompson's appearance, because the rest of the field remained pretty close to static:

Republicans
Giuliani 27 (-13 points versus last month's poll)
McCain 19 (+1)

F. Thompson 14 (first time polled)
Gingrich 8 (-2)
Romney 8 (+1)
Undecided 16 (+1)

Head-to-Head Match Ups
Giuliani 49 - Clinton 40
Giuliani 44 - Obama 41

Giuliani 48 - Gore 41

McCain 46 - Clinton 41
McCain 42 - Obama 42
McCain 47 - Gore 41

F. Thompson 39 - Clinton 46

F. Thompson 34 - Obama 47
F. Thompson 37 - Gore 47

Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings
Giuliani 53/24 (+29)
Obama 46/18 (+28)
McCain 49/26 (+23)
Edwards 46/25 (+21)

F. Thompson 26/9 (+17)
Gore 49/41 (+8)
Romney 17/16 (+1)
Clinton 44/46 (-2)

Other numbers from the poll worth a mention: Democrats lead the generic ballot question by 9 points (43/34); 57% responded that Iraq is the "most important issue for the next President to deal with;" President Bush's job approval is at 35%; Congress' job approval is slightly higher at 39%; and the Supreme Court's job approval is at 58%.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: edwards; fredthompson; quinnipiac; rfr; runfredrun; thompson
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To: Jake The Goose

Yes in the San Bernardino/Riverside area.


41 posted on 05/03/2007 9:45:53 AM PDT by scratcher
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To: AFPhys
If Thompson chooses to wait until much later in the year, we’ll get to see which analysis is correct. I have a strong belief that there is going to be a great deal of candidate fatigue that sets in, and will work against those who have been campaigning for far too long.

That is a powerful argument - and I think I agree with it. I'm already a "little" tired of all this. Not yet though. Wouldn't it great if Fred could prove all the experts wrong? I think it could change everything - and that would be great. This is too fun to watch - I love American politics.

42 posted on 05/03/2007 9:47:12 AM PDT by Jake The Goose
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To: scratcher

I was born in Monterey - grew up there.

Then lived from 1985 to 2002 in Corona Del Mar - down in O.C.

Let me ask you - how do you and your friends like the job Arnold is doing?

May I ask?


43 posted on 05/03/2007 9:48:55 AM PDT by Jake The Goose
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To: AFPhys
You have my express permission to say, “I told you so” if in the future I’m shown to be wrong.

I voted for Perot - so you know I will admit to being wrong. An idiot even...... Damn

44 posted on 05/03/2007 9:50:05 AM PDT by Jake The Goose
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To: Jake The Goose

LOL

Most of us have been there, and in spades.

Usually, my political instincts have been pretty good, though. We’ll just have to wait and see... it really is a loooooong time until the elections.


45 posted on 05/03/2007 9:52:54 AM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: AFPhys

Agreed.


46 posted on 05/03/2007 9:56:50 AM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
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To: Jake The Goose

My more conservative friends feel he is holding back the tide (liberalism) and not much more. Less conservative republicans are more pleased and Democrats don’t seem to have a problem with him. My circle of friends and colleagues and they don’t talk about Arnold much anymore. They are starting to focus more on 2008 elections.


47 posted on 05/03/2007 10:02:26 AM PDT by scratcher
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To: scratcher

California is such a diverse state -

It has to be most politically confused state in the nation.

Nice talking to you.


48 posted on 05/03/2007 10:06:00 AM PDT by Jake The Goose
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To: Jake The Goose

My pleasure Jake.


49 posted on 05/03/2007 10:08:33 AM PDT by scratcher
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To: Jake The Goose
Wouldn't it great if Fred could prove all the experts wrong?

A couple of "experts" (e.g. Stu Rothenberg) have already backed off of the conventional wisdom they adopted just a few months ago regarding the race.

So far all my assumptions from last fall are intact.

50 posted on 05/03/2007 11:19:52 AM PDT by JohnnyZ ("I respect and will protect a woman's right to choose" -- Mitt Romney, April 2002)
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To: JohnnyZ
So far all my assumptions from last fall are intact

What were those assumptions of yours - I am honestly curious.

51 posted on 05/03/2007 11:29:15 AM PDT by Jake The Goose
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To: Jake The Goose
What were those assumptions of yours - I am honestly curious.

Mainly to do with the field of candidates at the time and the possibility of another candidate emerging later.

I was criticizing Rudy & Romney and when their fans demanded I reveal my candidate I said I expected one or more strong dark horse (conservative) candidates to emerge to fill the vacuum on the right. That Rudy McRomney would ultimately not have staying power due to their glaring weaknesses; however, that the "moderates" in the GOP see this as their time and won't go down without a fight; that mucho money and an early start would not be the prerequisites people considered it, in this the information age; that the candidate and his message were paramount.

Obviously much of that is yet to be determined, but I think it has and will hold up well.

52 posted on 05/03/2007 11:47:00 AM PDT by JohnnyZ ("I respect and will protect a woman's right to choose" -- Mitt Romney, April 2002)
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To: Jake The Goose
Conservative GOP strength is meaningless - if we cannot win the general election.

Liberal GOP strength is meaningless too, if the liberal cannot win the general election. The polls pitting Giuliani against Clinton are meaningless at this stage because they assume that Giuliani will be able to pull enough folks to the polls, but in fact he will probably be a drag in the general election; many folks won't take the time to drive to vote.

Even if I am wrong, liberal GOP strength is meaningless anyway if it means no matter what a liberal wins the White House.

Folks aren't going to vote for liberal Rudy over liberal Hilary just because he supports the WOT.

53 posted on 05/03/2007 11:50:31 AM PDT by HoustonTech (Fred Thompson: Best hope to continue the Reagan Revolution)
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To: JohnnyZ

Not bad JohnnyZ - you might be a profit..

Got any lottery picks I can have? Kidding.

Damn good projections you made.

I am impressed.

NOW - project the general election - WHAT DO YOU SEE?


54 posted on 05/03/2007 11:59:16 AM PDT by Jake The Goose
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To: Jake The Goose
Depends who's in it, doesn't it?

But if it's Fred vs Obama (who I would consider the most likely nominees at this point, by plurality), it'll be a real knock-down drag-em-out bloody faced race, another one of those 50-50ish elections with much dirt and race-baiting. Michigan and Pennsylvania stay Democrat, Minnesota & Wisconsin win it for Thompson on a 'common sense' campaign, maybe Oregon too. Common sense and experience vs youth and idealism.

But the general is tough to predict without nominees and platforms -- and especially without a good idea on how Iraq & the WOT will be looking in over a year. That'll affect VP choices as well -- Fred Thompson & Tommy Franks? That would change a major dynamic.

We'll see. I have been wrong on occasion ;)

55 posted on 05/03/2007 12:59:02 PM PDT by JohnnyZ ("I respect and will protect a woman's right to choose" -- Mitt Romney, April 2002)
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