Posted on 05/03/2007 7:42:33 AM PDT by AFPhys
Yes in the San Bernardino/Riverside area.
That is a powerful argument - and I think I agree with it. I'm already a "little" tired of all this. Not yet though. Wouldn't it great if Fred could prove all the experts wrong? I think it could change everything - and that would be great. This is too fun to watch - I love American politics.
I was born in Monterey - grew up there.
Then lived from 1985 to 2002 in Corona Del Mar - down in O.C.
Let me ask you - how do you and your friends like the job Arnold is doing?
May I ask?
I voted for Perot - so you know I will admit to being wrong. An idiot even...... Damn
LOL
Most of us have been there, and in spades.
Usually, my political instincts have been pretty good, though. We’ll just have to wait and see... it really is a loooooong time until the elections.
Agreed.
My more conservative friends feel he is holding back the tide (liberalism) and not much more. Less conservative republicans are more pleased and Democrats don’t seem to have a problem with him. My circle of friends and colleagues and they don’t talk about Arnold much anymore. They are starting to focus more on 2008 elections.
California is such a diverse state -
It has to be most politically confused state in the nation.
Nice talking to you.
My pleasure Jake.
A couple of "experts" (e.g. Stu Rothenberg) have already backed off of the conventional wisdom they adopted just a few months ago regarding the race.
So far all my assumptions from last fall are intact.
What were those assumptions of yours - I am honestly curious.
Mainly to do with the field of candidates at the time and the possibility of another candidate emerging later.
I was criticizing Rudy & Romney and when their fans demanded I reveal my candidate I said I expected one or more strong dark horse (conservative) candidates to emerge to fill the vacuum on the right. That Rudy McRomney would ultimately not have staying power due to their glaring weaknesses; however, that the "moderates" in the GOP see this as their time and won't go down without a fight; that mucho money and an early start would not be the prerequisites people considered it, in this the information age; that the candidate and his message were paramount.
Obviously much of that is yet to be determined, but I think it has and will hold up well.
Liberal GOP strength is meaningless too, if the liberal cannot win the general election. The polls pitting Giuliani against Clinton are meaningless at this stage because they assume that Giuliani will be able to pull enough folks to the polls, but in fact he will probably be a drag in the general election; many folks won't take the time to drive to vote.
Even if I am wrong, liberal GOP strength is meaningless anyway if it means no matter what a liberal wins the White House.
Folks aren't going to vote for liberal Rudy over liberal Hilary just because he supports the WOT.
Not bad JohnnyZ - you might be a profit..
Got any lottery picks I can have? Kidding.
Damn good projections you made.
I am impressed.
NOW - project the general election - WHAT DO YOU SEE?
But if it's Fred vs Obama (who I would consider the most likely nominees at this point, by plurality), it'll be a real knock-down drag-em-out bloody faced race, another one of those 50-50ish elections with much dirt and race-baiting. Michigan and Pennsylvania stay Democrat, Minnesota & Wisconsin win it for Thompson on a 'common sense' campaign, maybe Oregon too. Common sense and experience vs youth and idealism.
But the general is tough to predict without nominees and platforms -- and especially without a good idea on how Iraq & the WOT will be looking in over a year. That'll affect VP choices as well -- Fred Thompson & Tommy Franks? That would change a major dynamic.
We'll see. I have been wrong on occasion ;)
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