Guiliani's campaign rejecting Iowans and Carolinians for early Florida primary ?

Mr. Giuliani’s campaign — seeking to accomplish the unusual task of persuading Republicans to nominate an abortion rights supporter — is eyeing a path to the nomination that would try to de-emphasize the early states in which abortion opponents wield a great deal of influence. Instead they would focus on the so-called mega-primary of Feb. 5, in which voters in states like California, New York and New Jersey are likely to be more receptive to Mr. Giuliani’s social views than voters in Iowa and South Carolina.

That approach, they said, became more appealing after the Legislature in Florida, another state they said would be receptive to Mr. Giuliani, voted last week to move the primary forward to the end of January. . . .

Mr. Giuliani hinted at what aides said would be his uncompromising position on abortion rights yesterday in Huntsville, Ala., where he was besieged with questions about abortion and his donations to Planned Parenthood. “Ultimately, there has to be a right to choose,” he said.

Asked if Republicans would accept that, he said, “I guess we are going to find out.” . . .

“Conventional wisdom says he can’t” win the nomination, said Mike DuHaime, Mr. Giuliani’s campaign manager . . .

Interesting. We can deduce at least two things from this article.

One. Giuliani himself has made a pact with the New York Times. He promises to back abortion all out; they promise to give him a lot of publicity. Evidently Adam Nagourney, one of their premier liberal propagandists, has been assigned to this task, since he also co-wrote the earlier article.

Two. Giuliani is hoping that he can use liberal newspapers like the times, and no doubt later the major Florida papers, to persuade Democrats to register as Republicans for the primaries.

Rememember that McCain did that in 2000, very successfully, and was leading in the early primaries in places like Detroit, where massive numbers of Democrats switched over to vote for him against Bush. This would require the full cooperation of the left-wing media (which McCain got back then) and also the urban political operators, who would shepherd their flocks to vote in the Republican primaries.

I’d say this is a heads up. In the end it failed for McCain, largely because he overstepped himself in the Bob Jones attack that tried to paint Bush as a Catholic hater. But it could be dangerous. He might very well win in the states with reliable Democrat machines, like Florida, New Jersey, New York.

On the other hand, if Hellery still has competition she isn’t going to want her herds of tame voters to vote in the Republican primary, unless she figures it’s a good way to deprive Obama of the black vote or something of that kind.

Any way you slice it, however, this article is a real heads up to watch out for dirty tricks next spring.

Rudy is the chosen candidate of the Clinton Machine. He bailed and let her heinous win the senate seat in 2000. Now he’s an in our face, unabashed liberal. The NYT, who was not a pro Giuliani rag when he was mayor, is willing to gush and pimp for him now. Nagourney is a tried and true lefty.

We have to hope that Obama remains viable, so that Democrats can’t be unleashed to re-register. Of course, in the urban areas of the blue states, they might just hand them two ballots anyway.

Along those lines, campaign aides said they were still debating whether Mr. Giuliani would participate in a nonbinding straw poll of Iowa Republicans. That huge Republican gathering this summer is a critical early test for anyone taking part in the caucuses next January.

Failure to participate in the Iowa straw poll would be very foolish of Mr. Giuliani, and the GOP nominating someone who failed to participate would also be very foolish. That straw poll is a major fundraiser for the Iowa GOP and puts some cash into the Iowa economy. Any candidate who takes the attitude that he doesn't need to win the poll and refuses to participate is insulting the whole state. He's going to have a very hard time winning Iowa in the general election. While the Giuliani supporters pretend that he'll win 350 electoral votes easily, the truth is that the race will be very close. I don't believe that Mr. Giuliani can win under any circumstances, and writing off Iowa would be a big mistake.

At the same time, Republicans in New Hampshire said yesterday that Mr. Giuliani had been a notably infrequent visitor there, causing annoyance among party activists and speculation that he has given up on the state.

Whether we like it or not, New Hampshire also takes great pride in having the first primary and getting visits from all of the candidates. If Mr. Giuliani writes off the New Hampshire primary, he'll also likely be writing off those three electoral votes. Admittedly, three votes is only three votes, but three electoral votes would have made the difference in 2000.

If this article is accurate, the Giuliani campaign is failing badly. Mitt Romney will be strong in Michigan where his family was prominent politically and where he grew up. He could be strong in Florida because he's close to Jeb Bush. If Giuliani loses Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, he'll lose that aura of inevitability that his supporters have tried to create. When he loses that, some people who supported him because he seemed a certain winner will look at other candidates. Fred Thompson will win quite a few of the southern states on February 5. If Rudy Giuliani comes out of the February 5 primary as a weak third place, he might as well drop out of the race.

Bill

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.