Rudy's Gamble Defies History

realclearpolitics.com ^ | May 14, 2007 | Peter Brown

[neverdem]

Every four years some presidential candidate, but never the front-runner, tries to find a way around the early, smaller state primaries and caucuses. That decision is almost always a sign of a candidate's efforts to mitigate a potentially fatal flaw.

That is what former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is doing with his reported decision to de-emphasize the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries in his quest for the GOP nomination.

Make no mistake about it, this is a big deal.

The Giuliani campaign says this strategy is just the necessary result of its decision to end his evasion about his support for abortion rights, arguing that his candor will be more appealing in the larger, more cosmopolitan states.

Although some in the hinterlands might see this as snobbery, it is less a risk for Giuliani's campaign than the mentality it reflects about where the votes are needed to win the Republican presidential nomination.

In the last 40 years, no president has dissed both Iowa and New Hampshire. It is the political equivalent of ignoring Mother Nature. But then, none who have taken that tack have been front-runners.

Everyone who knows Giuliani, the clear leader in polls of Republicans, says he is self-confident or arrogant -- which one depends on whether you like him or not.

His decision to minimize investment in states where there are party activists who disdain his Democratic-like positions on social issues is a testament to Giuliani's chutzpa.

Giuliani is reported by the New York Times to have decided to de-emphasize the early contests and concentrate on the mega states -- California, New York, New Jersey, etc. that are currently scheduled to be among the 20 or so to pick their delegates a week or two after the early contests.

[Man50D]

The Giuliani campaign says this strategy is just the necessary result of its decision to end his evasion about his support for abortion rights, arguing that his candor will be more appealing in the larger, more cosmopolitan states.

His lack of candor has caused him to avoid those states where there is a large concentration of conservatives.

His decision to minimize investment in states where there are party activists who disdain his Democratic-like positions on social issues is a testament to Giuliani's chutzpa.

His decision to de-emphasize Conservative states is a testament to his socialist Democrat beliefs not chutzpah.

[barker]

Several years ago I saw Rudy at a political rally in KC. He made a stupid little snide remark to one of the candidates. It didn’t amount to much but I decided right then I would never vote for him when he ran for president.

[Candor7]

I'm just real glad that Rudi won't make the Republican ticket. He would make an excellent ambassadorial appointment, but hasn't got what it trakes to be a Republican president.

I hope Rudi does not make the mistake of running as an independent. If he does that, his politcal career would be over, just like McCain's is now.

[brothers4thID]

“Everyone who knows Giuliani, the clear leader in polls of Republicans”

Until Thompson enters the race.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

his candor will be more appealing in the larger, more cosmopolitan states states conservatives don't expect to win except in landslide elections.

[PJ-Comix]

I’m leaning towards Romney at this point. Among other things, he is an incredible executive. He took the corrupt Salt Lake city Olympics and turned it into a success. The Mormon thing doesn’t bother me at all. I take the South Park attitude on the subject (you have to see their Mormons episode to figure that out).