Posted on 05/28/2007 2:04:55 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
The Grand Syro-Iranian spring offensive has begun in Lebanon. The design is to drag the Lebanese Army into side - but costly - fights with group A, while group B is preparing itself for the next stage, possibly a summer offensive.
There is a consensus among terrorism analysts in Lebanon — including those within the Lebanese Government and the Cedars Revolution – that elements within Syrian intelligence have been tasked with instigating or initiating a battle in Tripoli between Fatah al Islam and the Lebanese Army in hopes that Lebanese Army units would falter and Lebanese-Palestinian fighting would widen.
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The second stage of this spring offensive is to push elements of Jund al Sham (another al Qaeda affiliate) into the southern Palestinian camp of Miyeh-Miyeh near Sidon. The objective is to open another front for Group A: that is the Salafists against the same Lebanese Armed Forces.
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Ultimately, the Syro-Iranians hope to see the Lebanese armed forces engaged in fighting in multiple enclaves from Tripoli to Sidon, and perhaps to the Bekaa.
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This terror plan is to drain the operational forces of the Lebanese Army by forcing the LA to engage enemy forces in multiple locations.
(Excerpt) Read more at tank.nationalreview.com ...
fyi for separate discussion thread....
Arm and support the Lebanese Army against Al-Q in the “refugee camps”.
Let Israel carpet (!) bomb the entire Hezbullah-land in southern Lebanon. No foot-dragging and PC pin-point attacks like in the last war. Israel has to get rid of the leftist, cowardly Kadima Government first.
US-Israeli air war and longe range artillery bombardment of Syrian forces at the borders. Kill Assad.
Air and Naval attack on Iran. Kill Ahamdinejad and the leading Mullahs (Yazdi, Rafsanjani, Khameini).
All it requires is political will in DC. The longer we wait, the worse it gets.
A) Nothing, let the UN handle it.
B) Reinforce the LA and hope for the best.
C) Authorize 2 B-52's to lay waste to these "camps" and be done with it. Thereby showing the Syrio-Iranians that they will be stopped promptly and with overwhelming force.
I like your thinking, let’s open a premptive can of whoop-a$$ on the HIZZIES and the SYRIAN fools....clean up time.
Hey! Where are the French in all this. And what are those supposed peace forces doing. Laying around pounding down cold beers. (sarc/off).
George Bush the father sold out Lebanon to convince Syria to stay with the coalition during Iraqi War I. That lack of principle is now much more difficult to fix.
The Lebanese Army has been purposefully kept weak by the Western powers. Into that vacuum stepped Syria and Iran. Now that those people have their stooges stronger than the LA, the US is trying to play catch up. I hope that works, but I’m afraid that the Lebanese are at a breaking point, and may not be willing to do the West’s dirty job after two generations of being used by the same powers in their proxy wars.
Thanks E. See, the problem isn’t in Lebanon, it’s in Syria and Iran.
I respect to the limit of admiration the daring political ideas of Mr. Phares since his book on the plurality of the lebanese population more than 30 years ago.
But this time, the “great syro-iranian” offensive makes me slow a little bit. Al-Qaeda and the Shi’a are two branches of Islam that are never to meet unless in a bloody way. Both of them are enough shrewd not to be manipulated by the other.
The Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Mr. Khoja has admitted to the saudi-lebanese newspaper Al-Hayat, based in London (unfortunatly it is in arabic, and needs the help of jveritas )
that 4 saudi nationals in the ranks of Fatah Al Islam has been killed in the current fighting (a fifth casualty has been confirmed since), and that this organization counts more saudis, algerians, (yemenis, jordanians in other instances)... in its ranks and that they follow the thought and ideology of Al-Qaeda, and that there is a continuous exchange of intelligence flowing between KSA and Lebanon round the clock.
OTOH, Ms Bahia Hariri, MP and sister of late Rafic Hariri, has defended on several occasions the Jund-e-Sham organization present in Ain-el-Helweh camp next to Saida (Sidon), her hometown. It is well known to the lebanese security forces that part of Fatah al Islam were brought from that organization with their equipment under the auspices of these same security forces after they struck a $$deal$$ with Hariri to withdraw from ‘Hay al ta’mir’ to inside the camp last January.
Although the main focus is on Iran right now - I suspect that we will go into Syria first.
Syria seems to be getting pretty damn bold lately, perhaps thinking that the US is occupied with Iran and doesn’t want to stir things up outside the main area of focus.
They have made threatening movements in the Golan Heights, they have continued their cross-border infiltrations of weaponry and insurgents into Iraq to the point that US commanders say that 90% of the IED’s are coming across from Syria. And, they are now actively stirring up things in Lebanon - which is getting Israel very agitated.
I predict that as the UN moves closer to convening the assassination tribunal implicating Syria, they will do something really stupid and escalatory on any one or all of these fronts.
Predicting on, I think the US will cross the border into Syria in response. Iran will then attack US forces in the Gulf and quite possibly Iraq as well - under the auspices of the recently signed Iran-Syria Mutual Defense Pact, and then both the US and Iran will get what both have been chomping at the bit to get to - a shooting war.
Don’t get me wrong - we will have every legitimate reason in the book to throw the book at Iran - but Iran will be using their wacky Book to justify their instigation, to overuse some myriad cliches.
For the US - we will have a legitimate reason to take out Iran’s nuke sites, since - after all - we were attacked first - and even the dipsquat Left would have to notice that.
For Iran - it gets a reason to call for and bring about Global Jihad against the Great Satan - bringing the 12th Mahdi up from the toilet bowl to rule the world in the aftermath. Of course, they will pass off their striking first as a brotherly defense of a poor beleaguered fellow Islamic country - and will call upon the jihadists around the world to overthrow any western-aligned governments and to directly attack all western peoples and powers.
And then - it’ll be truly on - worldwide. In Europe and the US, we will get hit with large-scale terrorist attacks, via their sleeper cells that we’ve long been asleep to. Russia and China will align with the jihadists, and suddenly - the battle lines will become strikingly clear as to what all these subtle international realignments we are seeing - are going to mean.
I think EatB has it right.
Pelosi’s treasonous blundering has convinced Assad that the US will not attack Syria. He just might be wrong.
First, Sarkozy will decide to intervene in Lebanon, offering troops, planes, and ships to stop Syrian meddling.
Then, French and Lebanese forces will clean out the Bekaa Valley.
Finally, we’ll see a new march to the sea by US armored forces, sweeping in from Iraq and leaving through the Mediterranean.
Once Lebanon is cleansed, and the tyrant of Syria removed, it’s time to get after the petro-crazies of Iran.
This war is a long way from being over, and we’ve just gotten new allies in Europe.
Time to win!
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