Mitt v. Hillary

DataMar Polling ^

[Degaston]

Hillary Clinton is on a roll now. Mitt Romney is going very strong. Unless some major trend changes this will be the matchup in November 2008. Will Mitt Romney have the strength in his loins and sinews to go the whole distance and win? Could he survive a no-holds-barred onslaught by the supporters of Hillary Clinton?

My preliminary prediction on the November 2008 outcome of Hillary v. Mitt.

Mitt solidly wins Alaska, Wyoming, Utah and Idaho. Mitt leans in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Too close to call are Alabama, Indiana and South Carolina. Hillary leans in Montana, Iowa, North Carolina, Kansas, Arizona, Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia, New Hampshire, West Virginia, Georgia, Florida and Nevada. Hillary solidly wins Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Arkansas, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, DC, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachussetts, Vermont and Maine.

[lentulusgracchus]

Hillary would destroy Mitt in the general election.

Concurring bump.

And that's even without pulling out Larry Flynt's photos of everybody with their clothes off.

[lentulusgracchus]

Thanx. ;)

I zing, I zang, I have zung.

I zing, you zing, we all zing for Ling-Ling.

Or something.

[frankenMonkey]

Hillary would destroy Mitt in the general election. Just totally destroy him.

Absolutely!

Picture James Carville on Meet the Press, saying (with his crazed-eyed look) something along the lines of "Hey, I believe that people can believe whatever they want - magic underwear, alien gods, Mary having sex...they just shouldn't be elected president. I'm just sayin..." as Tim Russert nods in agreement.

Disclaimer: I am not saying these things personally about the LDS, but you better believe that Hillary's jackboots will be - loud and clear.

[ClaireSolt]

Dems ran an anti war McGovern and lost in a 49 state landslide. They ran Mondale who said he would raise taxes and lost in a 49 state landslide. Then they lost the House to Hillarycare. So judging from history, if Hillary runs on an antiwar, tax raising, and Hillarycare platform, she loses 198 states.

[Brices Crossroads]

“In every straw poll of people who are paying attention, Mitt Romney comes out on top.”

This is simply untrue and, if you are paying attention, you should know better. You have posted this twice so let me disabuse you of this notion.

Thompson has won the following state straw polls. (not counting county GOP conventions or it would be many more.)

Pennsylvania Republican Assembly- 4/21
California Republican Assembly- 4/22
Virginia- 4/22
Washington- 5/7
Vermont- 5/14
Georgia- 5/19
Wisconsin- 5/12
Oklahoma- 4/14

The margins are generally lopsided and Romney is generally way down in the pack. BTW, I am sure there are more. These are the ones that took me only 2 minutes to find.

If Mitt wants to run against Hillary, he had better plan a move to New York (and another series of flip flops).

[frankenMonkey]

Hillary will morph before our very eyes, the MSM will provide cover, and her fake polling firm will provide the “proof” of her acceptance. A few long knives stuck into the back of Mitt, and there you have it. She only needs to swing a few percentage points in the middle of a few key states, not carry the nation.

[nathanbedford]

As I posted three weeks ago, the field has narrowed to two, Thompson and Romney, and Thompson will eventually take it, although he might stumble if he fails to assemble a staff which can cope with the professionalism which the Romney team enjoys. McCain, as I stated three weeks ago, is finished and Giuliani is utterly unacceptable to the broad base of the party. Newt Gingrich will enter the race only in the unlikely event that he sees daylight in September, but he has no chance. The second-tier candidates are essentially running for vice president.

Thompson has the virtue of being acceptable to both the Goldwater and Rockefeller wings of the party. He is sound on the three fundamental issues which can disqualify a Republican hopeful: abortion, immigration, taxes and spending. He can plausibly run as an outsider, certainly one who's largely untainted with a Bush legacy. He has gravitas and a folksy charm, a rare combination. He does not terrify independents or Reagan Democrats and even has a chance of garnering a few of them. He is our best candidate who can hold the base with one hand and raid Democrat territory with the other.

Mitt Romney is an exceptional individual who has demonstrated in his private and public careers that he is a winner. Only a fool would underestimate him. As I predicted the an August 2006 on these threads, Romney will successfully move to the right and become generally acceptable to the Republican base and, because of his television charisma, he will be able to attract women and independents. His organizational skills are extraordinary. He has already demonstrated a phenomenal ability to raise money. He knows how the game is played and he is spending that money in the right places. Fred Thompson must move rather quickly or Romney could foreclose him in the first three states by dint of his organization and television presence. Nevertheless, Thompson has the edge over Romney because he is more sound on the issues and therefore more attractive to the base which nominates our candidates. Thompson also offers a less button-down more folksy persona than does Romney. Will Romney take second place on the ticket? Will he play George H. W. Bush to Thompson's Reagan?

Whichever of these two men is nominated matters little if they cannot find a way to reshape the campaign and wrest it away from the control of the media who will move heaven and earth to put a Democrat in the White House. The press and the Democrats will run this election on Iraq and healthcare. The Republicans will tend to campaign on taxes, immigration, and the war on terror,-as opposed to the war in Iraq. This will not be enough. Republicans must find new issues and new ways of expressing those issues if they are to avoid paying the price for getting it so politically wrong on Iraq. Simply put, Republicans will lose across the board if this election becomes a third referendum on Iraq. To avoid that calamity which confronts us, the party needs the ideas of a man like Newt Gingrich. He has the right ideas but he cannot be the messenger. Will either Thompson or Romney (or both if they run as a team) have the wit to see that they must change the rules of the game this cycle or lose?

[Born to Conserve]

“Romney is the only Republican with a realistic chance of beating Hillary in 2008.”

Wow! Really? Let me write that down!

(dream on)

[bw17]

I should have said “in straw polls taken at events that the candidates have attended”. Otherwise, it’s just a name recognition contest.

[Always Right]

Nice post. A very good assessment of the race.

[nckerr]

Hillary Clinton is on a roll now. Mitt Romney is going very strong. Unless some major trend changes this will be the matchup in November 2008

That major trend is the next Reagan named Thompson. Come on. Mitt doesn't have a chance. No one trusts his flip flopping. Fred hasn't even entered and he is in second place in almost every poll and tied for first in one. Mitt is down there with McCain.

[aruanan]

Unless some major trend changes this will be the matchup in November 2008.

It'll be Fred vs Al.

[rtbwood]

Hillary couldn’t win DOG CATCHER in TN. Gore got 25% in a recent straw vote against Fred Thompson. This is Gore’s home state. Tennessee would vote anyone but Hillary.

[GoreNoMore]

Bush needed to have more things in place before he declares Martial law. If he can get riots between the illegals and the citizens, martial law will be requested by the citizens.

Hillary is the only one allowed to carry this baton, it cannot go outside the Bush Clinton Cabal.

Start recalling senators, get it stopped and vote.

I’m voting for Ron Paul, may be a long shot not worth the vote, but if your going to throw your vote to someone you know will not beat Hillary at least it’s a vote of NO CONFIDENCE. With enought votes of NO CONFIDENCE, Ron would win.

[Verginius Rufus]

I can’t think of anyone who would have done better than Dole in 1996. The Clintons spent a ton of money on general anti-Republican propaganda before the election campaign really got started, then the primary process was so expensive that Dole was broke for several months before the convention (thanks to Steve Forbes’ quixotic campaign—well-funded but no chance of being elected President).

[Always Right]

I should have said “in straw polls taken at events that the candidates have attended”. Otherwise, it’s just a name recognition contest.

Polls have Name recognition between Romney and Thompson are virtually identical. Where Thompson wins is not name recognition, but favorability.

[nathanbedford]

Thanks.

[bw17]

Show me those polls (about name recogntion).

[mimaw]

No.

[Atlas Sneezed]

Can I get in on the action?

Thompson is the nominee, I win. Romney, you win. Neither, push.

How shall we select a stakeholder?

Limit it to $100, or go with $500.

I’ll accept any “banglist” regular as a stakeholder.