Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

(Climate) Models Trump (Empirical) Measurements
Financial Post ^ | July 7, 2007 | Lawrence Solomon

Posted on 07/10/2007 8:16:12 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum

We are doomed, say climate change scientists associated with the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations body that is organizing most of the climate change research occurring in the world today. Carbon dioxide from man-made sources rises to the atmosphere and then stays there for 50, 100, or even 200 years. This unprecedented buildup of CO2 then traps heat that would otherwise escape our atmosphere, threatening us all.

"This is nonsense," says Tom V. Segalstad, head of the Geological Museum at the University of Oslo and formerly an expert reviewer with the same IPCC. He laments the paucity of geologic knowledge among IPCC scientists -- a knowledge that is central to understanding climate change, in his view, since geologic processes ultimately determine the level of atmospheric CO2.

"The IPCC needs a lesson in geology to avoid making fundamental mistakes," he says. "Most leading geologists, throughout the world, know that the IPCC's view of Earth processes are implausible if not impossible."

Catastrophic theories of climate change depend on carbon dioxide staying in the atmosphere for long periods of time -- otherwise, the CO2 enveloping the globe wouldn't be dense enough to keep the heat in. Until recently, the world of science was near-unanimous that CO2 couldn't stay in the atmosphere for more than about five to 10 years because of the oceans' near-limitless ability to absorb CO2.

"This time period has been established by measurements based on natural carbon-14 and also from readings of carbon-14 from nuclear weapons testing, it has been established by radon-222 measurements, it has been established by measurements of the solubility of atmospheric gases in the oceans, it has been established by comparing the isotope mass balance, it has been established through other mechanisms, too, and over many decades, and by many scientists in many disciplines," says Prof. Segalstad, whose work has often relied upon such measurements.

Then, with the advent of IPCC-influenced science, the length of time that carbon stays in the atmosphere became controversial. Climate change scientists began creating carbon cycle models to explain what they thought must be an excess of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. These computer models calculated a long life for carbon dioxide.

Amazingly, the hypothetical results from climate models have trumped the real world measurements of carbon dioxide's longevity in the atmosphere. Those who claim that CO2 lasts decades or centuries have no such measurements or other physical evidence to support their claims.

Neither can they demonstrate that the various forms of measurement are erroneous.

"They don't even try," says Prof. Segalstad. "They simply dismiss evidence that is, for all intents and purposes, irrefutable. Instead, they substitute their faith, constructing a kind of science fiction or fantasy world in the process."

In the real world, as measurable by science, CO2 in the atmosphere and in the ocean reach a stable balance when the oceans contain 50 times as much CO2 as the atmosphere. "The IPCC postulates an atmospheric doubling of CO2, meaning that the oceans would need to receive 50 times more CO2 to obtain chemical equilibrium," explains Prof. Segalstad. "This total of 51 times the present amount of carbon in atmospheric CO2 exceeds the known reserves of fossil carbon-- it represents more carbon than exists in all the coal, gas, and oil that we can exploit anywhere in the world."

Also in the real world, Prof. Segalstad's isotope mass balance calculations -- a standard technique in science -- show that if CO2 in the atmosphere had a lifetime of 50 to 200 years, as claimed by IPCC scientists, the atmosphere would necessarily have half of its current CO2 mass. Because this is a nonsensical outcome, the IPCC model postulates that half of the CO2 must be hiding somewhere, in "a missing sink." Many studies have sought this missing sink -- a Holy Grail of climate science research-- without success.

"It is a search for a mythical CO2 sink to explain an immeasurable CO2 lifetime to fit a hypothetical CO2 computer model that purports to show that an impossible amount of fossil fuel burning is heating the atmosphere," Prof. Segalstad concludes.

"It is all a fiction."

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Urban Renaissance Institute and Consumer Policy Institute, divisions of Energy Probe Research Foundation. www.urban-renaissance.org.

CV of a denier

Prof. Tom V. Segalstad is head of the Geological Museum within the Natural History Museum of the University of Oslo. Formerly, he was head of the Mineralogical-Geologic-al Museum at the University of Oslo, director of the Natural History Museums and Botanical Garden of the University of Oslo, and program chairman for mineralogy/petrology/ geochemistry at the University of Oslo. His research projects include geological mapping in Norway, Svalbard (Arctic), Sweden and Iceland, and have involved geochemistry, volcanology, metallogenesis (how mineral and ore deposits form) and magmatic petrogenesis (how magmatic rocks form). He was an expert reviewer to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change's Third Assessment Report.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: climatechange; environment
"It is all a fiction."
1 posted on 07/10/2007 8:16:13 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: E. Pluribus Unum
"It U.N. is all a fiction."
2 posted on 07/10/2007 8:18:53 AM PDT by Stallone (Fred Thompson is the Man for the Times)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: E. Pluribus Unum

“It is a search for a mythical CO2 sink to explain an immeasurable CO2 lifetime to fit a hypothetical CO2 computer model that purports to show that an impossible amount of fossil fuel burning is heating the atmosphere,” Prof. Segalstad concludes.”...............The good professor should not try to let facts get in the way of Saint Al the Goracles new religous movement. Obviously he has not seen ‘Inconvenient Truth’


3 posted on 07/10/2007 8:22:27 AM PDT by milwguy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Stallone
Its a new religion. Dirtworship.
4 posted on 07/10/2007 8:25:49 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (BTUs are my Beat.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: E. Pluribus Unum
Amazingly, the hypothetical results from climate models have trumped the real world measurements of carbon dioxide's longevity in the atmosphere. Those who claim that CO2 lasts decades or centuries have no such measurements or other physical evidence to support their claims.

Neither can they demonstrate that the various forms of measurement are erroneous.

"They don't even try," says Prof. Segalstad. "They simply dismiss evidence that is, for all intents and purposes, irrefutable. Instead, they substitute their faith, constructing a kind of science fiction or fantasy world in the process."

Excellent and concise summary of the whole Goron hysterical "issue", and also an accurate summary of the political nature of the IPCC. Science? We don't need no stinkin' science!

We got these here computers and GIGO doesn't apply to us!

5 posted on 07/10/2007 8:35:37 AM PDT by Publius6961 (MSM: Israelis are killed by rockets; Lebanese are killed by Israelis.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: E. Pluribus Unum

In the real world, as measurable by science, CO2 in the atmosphere and in the ocean reach a stable balance when the oceans contain 50 times as much CO2 as the atmosphere. "The IPCC postulates an atmospheric doubling of CO2, meaning that the oceans would need to receive 50 times more CO2 to obtain chemical equilibrium," explains Prof. Segalstad. "This total of 51 times the present amount of carbon in atmospheric CO2 exceeds the known reserves of fossil carbon-- it represents more carbon than exists in all the coal, gas, and oil that we can exploit anywhere in the world."


6 posted on 07/10/2007 8:37:09 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Islam is a religion of peace, and Muslims reserve the right to kill anyone who says otherwise.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Eric in the Ozarks

“Its a new religion. Dirtworship.”

No, its a very old religion, but with a very sophisticated outreach ministry.


7 posted on 07/10/2007 8:38:31 AM PDT by Frank_Discussion (May the wings of Liberty never lose a feather!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: E. Pluribus Unum
"Buenos Aires Snow, First in 30 Years, Strains Energy Grid"

"July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Buenos Aires recorded its first snowfall in more than 30 years, threatening to exacerbate an energy shortage in the country that has forced the government to reduce electricity and natural gas supplies to businesses.

It's the first time since 1973 that Buenos Aires experienced any snowfall, according to the national meteorological center. With temperatures set to decline overnight, the city may record significant snow cover for only the second time since June 22, 1918.

``We may have lower thermometer readings later today and tomorrow, increasing the chance that snow crystals will take longer to melt,'' said Carlos Benitez, chief of the weather center. ``The day isn't yet over and the temperature is going to continue to drop.''

It was 1.8 degrees Celsius (35 Fahrenhiet) at about 3 p.m. local time. Buenos Aires residents, most of whom are on holiday today for Argentina's Independence Day, ran to the streets to catch the snowflakes.

To ensure sufficient residential energy, President Nestor Kirchner has in the past month asked 4,000 companies to curtail electricity use and applied gas restrictions to about 900 businesses.

Argentina's demand for electricity has soared with four years of economic growth above 8 percent. At the same time, lower-then-expected rainfall has cut electricity output at hydro-electric dams. Natural gas consumption jumps in the winter as Argentines use the price-controlled fuel to heat poorly- insulated homes, while demand for electricity also rises, boosting the need for gas from power generators.

Power Demand

Kirchner blames utility companies for failing to make new investments in exploration and production. Demand for electric power rose 6.3 percent in the first quarter, compared with a 4.4 percent increase in supply, according to Investigaciones Economicas Sectoriales, a Buenos Aires economic-research company.

The Southern Hemisphere's winter also brought snow to Johannesburg last month, which recorded its first confirmed snowfall for almost 26 years."

FROM:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aiep4.FUxqLo&refer=latin_america

8 posted on 07/10/2007 8:47:22 AM PDT by BoneShaker ("There is no distinctly native American criminal class except Congress." - Mark Twain)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: E. Pluribus Unum
Basic References:

Lawrence Solomon's "The Deniers" (a series of articles on the view of scientists who have been labelled "Global Warming Deniers"):

Other References:


9 posted on 07/10/2007 9:01:47 AM PDT by sourcery (fRed Dawn: Wednesday, 5 November 2008!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: xcamel

more good stuff x


10 posted on 07/10/2007 9:09:50 AM PDT by r-q-tek86 (Jack Bauer would just whack him!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: xcamel
just found where you tagged another version of this same article

nevermind....

11 posted on 07/10/2007 9:13:03 AM PDT by r-q-tek86 (Jack Bauer would just whack him!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: E. Pluribus Unum

Don’t confuse global warming dogma with fact.


12 posted on 07/10/2007 9:14:28 AM PDT by The Great RJ ("Mir we bleiwen wat mir sin" or "We want to remain what we are." ..Luxembourg motto)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Eric in the Ozarks

It’s an old religion:

Gaia worship, paganism, atheism.


13 posted on 07/10/2007 9:16:33 AM PDT by RinaseaofDs
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: aflaak

Look at the links in #9


14 posted on 11/20/2008 2:34:33 PM PST by r-q-tek86 (Keep the Change)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: E. Pluribus Unum

Bookmarked.


15 posted on 11/20/2008 2:43:31 PM PST by denydenydeny ("The monster state is a source of many evils; but it is, above all, an engine of envy."-Paul Johnson)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson