2008 Nomination Contests Holding Steady With Clinton and Giuliani on Top

Gallup ^ | 7/17/07 | Lydia Saad

[finnman69]

A new Gallup survey, conducted July 12-15, 2007, finds little change from earlier this month in public preferences for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations.

Sen. Hillary Clinton continues to lead Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination. Clinton has a 34% to 25% lead over Obama in a straight ballot question listing eight announced candidates plus Gore, and a 54% vs. 42% lead in a measure asking Democrats who they would vote for if the race narrows down to just Clinton and Obama. In the Republican race, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to overshadow his opponents, leading former Sen. Fred Thompson by 10 percentage points in the straight ballot question, 30% to 20%, and by a sizable 20-point margin in a "narrow down" with Fred Thompson

Sen. John McCain's dwindling campaign coffers and resulting staff shakeup have dominated campaign news coverage in the past week, much of it with the potentially ruinous overtones that his campaign could be folding. However, thus far this has not dampened his previously reduced level of support any further. McCain slipped into third place in the Republican field (with 16%) behind Fred Thompson in early July, and he remains at that level of support today.

[finnman69]

Steady as she goes. Surprised McCain is not cratering. Not yet at least. Ron Paul leaping ahead to 3%!

[xcamel]

Oh what an ugly mental picture that headline provides....

[finnman69]

First Choice for Republican Presidential Nomination in 2008 (Based on Republicans/Independents Who Lean Republican) July 12-15, 2007
	With Gingrich	Without Gingrich
	%	%
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani	30	33
Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson	20	21
Arizona Senator John McCain	16	16
Former Massachusetts Senator Mitt Romney	8	8
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich	7	--
Texas Congressman Ron Paul	3	3
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee	2	2
Kansas Senator Sam Brownback	2	2
Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson	1	1
California Congressman Duncan Hunter	1	1
Former Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo	*	*
Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel	*	*
Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore	*	*
Other	1	1
None/No opinion	10	11
* = Less than 0.5%
"Other" includes candidates asked about, but who have not announced an official running.

According to the original ballot preferences that include Gingrich, support for the top-three ranked Republicans is virtually identical to where it was in early July, and has varied little since mid-June. The most significant change has been the near doubling of support for Fred Thompson from 11% in early June to 19% in mid-June.

Although Giuliani holds a 10-point lead over his nearest rival for the Republican nomination, his position looks much stronger when examining two other measures of candidate support. One of these is the candidates' "total" support, which is determined by adding the number of Republicans who name each as their first or second choice for the nomination.

On this basis, Giuliani is supported by 53% of Republicans (including independents who lean Republican), compared with only 30% for Fred Thompson, and 29% for McCain. Romney and Gingrich garner no more than 15% support, even when respondents are given two opportunities to name them as their preferred candidate.

Additionally, Giuliani beats Fred Thompson by 20 points, 54% to 34%, when Republicans are asked which of the two they would vote for should the Republican field narrow down to just these candidates. In June, he led by 53% to 41%.

The Democratic Field

The Democratic race has been generally stable in July, with Clinton maintaining her lead in the field, now by a nine-percentage point margin over Obama, at 34% to 25%.

Clinton's current level of support is slightly below the 37% she received earlier this month, and Obama's is up slightly from 21%. Neither of these changes is statistically significant.

Al Gore's July 7, 2007, Live Earth concert -- designed to bring attention to global warming -- might also have been expected to raise Gore's profile with Americans. However, the percentage of Democrats (including Democratic leaners) who favor Gore for the nomination has not changed. Currently, 16% of Democrats say they would like to see him nominated. This is identical to the early July figure -- and is similar to the 18% found in the previous reading from mid-June.

Gore has not completely ruled out a bid for the presidency, but some of his recent statements indicate he is moving rapidly in that direction. Removing Gore from the Democratic preference list -- and substituting the second choice of his voters in his place -- Gallup finds Clinton picking up six percentage points and Obama three percentage points. The result is that Clinton's lead over Obama stretches to 12 percentage points, 40% vs. 28%. Support for Edwards expands to 13 percentage points.

[finnman69]

LOL, get your mind out of the gutter!

[deport]

Surprised McCain is not cratering. Not yet at least.

---

Well not in the public polls but cash on hand and fundraising is another matter based upon the 2nd qtr FEC filings.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1866959/posts

[ex-snook]

I won’t have any horse in that race. Just to put it in NYC terms, I’ll vote ‘thoid’.

[11th Commandment]

FORMER SENATOR Mitt Romney?

[Paradox]

I hate to say this, but I know alot of Democrats who WILL VOTE for Giuliani over Hillary or Obama, easily.

[Right2BareArms]

Oh great, a homo-loving freak in an “open marriage” from New York versus... a homo-loving freak in an “open marriage” from New York.

When are we going to get candidates that represent AMERICA? (And no, a Mormon who can get elected in Mass doesn’t count).

[finnman69]

“homo-loving freak”

you need to get a grip

[Ol' Sparky]

Never mind, of course, that an unannounced candidate that has campaigned or raised a dime -- Fred Thompson -- is not only ahead of Ghouliani in the Rasmussen poll but also in the last Angus Reid poll.

I might also point out that the announced GOP frontrunners are being destroyed in fund raising by the Democratic candidates because the base is not enthusiastic about Rudy McRomney.

[Pining_4_TX]

This is just what you need to show your support for Hillary’s “position”.

www.hillarynutcracker.com

[Clam Digger]

When the electorate finally learns what a scumbag Giuliani is, they’ll dump him like the flaming turd he is.

[Clam Digger]

“homo-loving freak”

you need to get a grip

Yeah, you left off half the story, wherein Giuliani helps raise money for anti-war socialist homo-freak groups.

[NeoCaveman]

If those two are my choices I’ll throw up in my mouth a little bit while I am voting.

[Clam Digger]

(Dow 14k here we go)

Made it this morning! WOOT!

[finnman69]

When the electorate finally learns what a scumbag Giuliani is, they’ll dump him like the flaming turd he is.

OR you are going to be more pissy than usual if Giuliani wins the nomination. Pass the popcorn.

[Clam Digger]

Not happening. He is a severely flawed candidate only a liberal could love, and they already have their man in Hillary Hssein Obama.

[finnman69]

yeah, not happening...not holding steady in the lead....

[NeoCaveman]

Made it this morning! WOOT!

Time to fix the tagline