Posted on 08/05/2007 3:39:26 AM PDT by BlueSky194
The people of the northern Iraqi region of Kurdistan are anxious about increasing American talk of withdrawing at least some troops from the country.
The American decision not to stay and protect the Kurds at the end of the first Gulf War left them vulnerable to genocidal attacks by Saddam Hussein's forces.
Australian lawyer Jonathan Morrow has been working for the Kurdish regional Government of Iraq on oil treaties for the last couple of years, after helping form East Timor's constitution.
He tells the ABC's Mark Colvin the relatively normal and prosperous life of this unusual part of Iraq could be under threat.
"The only thing greater I think than their fear at being abandoned again by the West is the fear of being overrun by their neighbours," he said. "They will not test the relationship with the US and with Great Britain, though they may have reason for doing that for fear that they will be left out again [and] they'll be left to the mercy of hostile elements in the region."
Why are the Kurds worried about the way they're surrounded?
"Well, right now, even as we speak, there are approximately 200,000 Turkish troops on the border of Turkey and Iraq. There, the perceived threat from the Turkish point of view are rogue Kurdish elements that are Turkish Kurds who use the border with Iraq as a way of getting sanctuary from their sporadic conflicts with Turkish forces - not at all supported by the Government in Iraqi Kurdistan but nonetheless seen by the Turks as a threat and seen at least as a reason or a pretext for Turkish engagement.
"Threat number two, at least as great, is largely Sunni Arab Iraqi extremism, the Al Qaeda or insurgent element that we know about so well from Iraqi politics, which not only want to bring down the largely Shiite Iraq Government but would like to see the Kurdish regional Government also suffer.
"That had much less success in Iraqi Kurdistan because it's so much better secured than is Baghdad, so over the course of the last four years, since the American occupation of Iraq in 2003, there's only been something like four of five bombs in Iraqi Kurdistan that have killed people. That's bad enough, you might say, but of course four or five successful bombings over the course of let's say four years is ... a drop in the ocean, it's a quiet afternoon in Baghdad. I think they are hoping, perhaps against hope now, that they will at least this time be given some real security guarantee and some real support in economics and so on by America and the west generally."
What would be the possibilities there if the Americans are going to pull out in some form from the rest of Iraq?
"There are two groups that would be emboldened by that. Most immediately, the Sunni extremists are mentioned - the people have carried out bombings in Iraq and of course in Kurdistan, they are the most immediate threat.
"However, that isn't, I think, the most long-term threat that the Kurds face from a precipitous, to use President Bush's word, pull-out from the rest of Iraq. It is, in fact, the likelihood of a Shiah-dominated Iraq Government that is much less pleasant than the current [Nouri Al] Maliki one. Imagine an Iraq Government that was led by [radical cleric] Moqtada al-Sadr, for instance, which is very easy to imagine. The polling data suggest that he is probably the most popular politician in Iraq ...
"That kind of regime in Baghdad - not the traditional threat to Kurdistan, which is a Sunni Arab supremacist regime, Saddam being the classic example - but a new kind of regime in Baghdad actually would be a very serious threat to the Kurds and that's the greatest danger in the medium- to long-term from American pullout and a lack of support to Iraqi Kurdistan."
So what some people are talking about is a second option, which is that the Americans, instead of pulling out of Iraq, would actually pull back into Kurdistan and maintain some kind of garrison force in Kurdistan?
"I don't think anyone's talking about any wholesale movement of 150,000, 160,000 American troops in Iraq now into Kurdistan. That would be, I think, unnecessary. But certainly, if you look at for instance the Liberal think tank - the Centre for American Progress has proposed, I think, about a 10,000-strong US presence in Kurdistan, which would both be of strategic utility to the Americans but would beyond that really be an underwriting of Kurdistan's security in the region. It would be a signal to the world that any of the elements that I've mentioned couldn't really make an incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan without alerting the attention of the Americans and presumably inviting some opposition from them."
Given the history, are you an optimist about this or a pessimist?
"I'm an optimist about it. There aren't many signals at the moment from the current administration in the US that they are prepared to single the Kurds out, if you like, for special protection that I've just mentioned. It goes completely against the grain of the White House's rhetoric of a unitary, almost non-federal Iraq in which there's an undifferentiated mass of Iraqis, all of whom should owe allegiance to some wonderful Government in Baghdad. This vision, which is of course wholly false, doesn't permit to give those kind of security guarantees, it doesn't even permit them to encourage direct investment into Kurdistan or a real diplomatic engagement, so that's the near-term.
"However, you can see in some of the Democratic Party presidential candidates some understanding of what Kurdistan is - Hillary Clinton particularly but also Barack Obama. You're seeing an understanding that Kurdistan, whatever happens in Iraq, however quickly American troops should be pulled out of the rest of Iraq, Kurdistan shouldn't be abandoned."
Here’s the link to the article.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/07/31/1992655.htm?section=world
I’ve read where the Kurds, the Shia, the Sunnis, the rest of the Iraqis, the Iraqi leadership and regional leaders don’t want us to leave, due the the caos that would ensue.
In fact the only people who want us out are Al Qaeda, the Taliban and the Democrats (read that marxists) in the United States and their global fellow travelers.
Wouldn’t you want to find your party’s name on that infamous list? Not this guy.
In fact the only people who want us out are Al Qaeda, the Taliban and the Democrats (read that marxists) in the United States and their global fellow travelers.
but but but...the lib/dems....reid/piglosi.murtha etc...all cry that they support the troops!!!!!
Amen
In fact the only people who want us out are Al Qaeda, the Taliban and the Democrats (read that marxists) in the United States and their global fellow travelers.
True. On both counts.
What I find appalling is how many anti-war people there are on FR. Some of them are quite vicious.
I get personal attacks just about daily on FR now from the anti-war crybabies, simply because I am associated with OIF.
Disgraceful.
It would help all of those groups if they started an internal PR program showing what kind of life, water power, sewer etc. etc. exists in the Arab emirates, Dubai and in the Kurd North, as way way to show what COULD be the life of an Iraqi with good government - not fighting factions.
What does the “12” mean next to your name? Days until you leave Iraq?
Yes, for leave. I'm taking a brief vacation and will be back here sometime at the end of August or early September.
It's getting closer and closer... :-)
What we have here folks, is a bunch of commie traitors who are putting their Party (or KOS) above our Troops lives on the battlefield. Not only the lives of our Troops, but also the lives of the Kurds, Sunnis, and Shias.
Am I wrong, or is this TREASON?
typo, meant WWII
So your in Iraq now ? Good luck and thank you so much for your service .To heck with sports stars and hollyhood stars, yall are my heros .
Thanks. ;-) I work with the heroes. I'm a civilian contractor embedded with the military on an Iraqi Government transition mission. It's crazy, frustrating, a tad dangerous and I love it.
Cheers.
I do that, too and then I see my glaring typos, cringe and usually post a correction. Sometimes there are typos in the correction, too.
Don't you go challenging my Typo Champion title, now. ;-)
They sure do... just the wrong ones IMO. And I hope our troops kick the collective ass of the troop’s they support.
Notice there’s never any mention that the people of Iraq would like Al Quaeda and the Taliban to just go away. Somehow Nancy Pants and company forget the families of all the car-bomb victims when she decides who to demand get out of Iraq.
Yep, let’s make all the defenders of the Iraqi people leave so can perpetrate another killing field.
The left is cursed (and so are we) to never remember their mistakes of the past that cost millions of lives, so they can repeat them at will.
They sure do... just the wrong ones IMO. And I hope our troops kick the collective ass of the troop’s they support.
Notice there’s never any mention that the people of Iraq would like Al Quaeda and the Taliban to just go away. Somehow Nancy Pants and company forget the families of all the car-bomb victims when she decides who to demand get out of Iraq.
Yep, let’s make all the defenders of the Iraqi people leave so the terrorists can perpetrate another killing field.
The left is cursed (and so are we) to never remember their mistakes of the past that cost millions of lives, so they can repeat them at will.
Thanks Meg.
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