Posted on 08/07/2007 10:52:02 AM PDT by blam
China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 6:00pm BST 07/08/2007
The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.
Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress. Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced through key think tanks and academies.
Described as China's "nuclear option" in the state media, such action could trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already breaking down through historic support levels.
It would also cause a spike in US bond yields, hammering the US housing market and perhaps tipping the economy into recession. It is estimated that China holds over $900bn in a mix of US bonds.
Xia Bin, finance chief at the Development Research Centre (which has cabinet rank), kicked off what now appears to be government policy with a comment last week that Beijing's foreign reserves should be used as a "bargaining chip" in talks with the US.
"Of course, China doesn't want any undesirable phenomenon in the global financial order," he added.
He Fan, an official at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, went even further today, letting it be known that Beijing had the power to set off a dollar collapse if it choose to do so.
"China has accumulated a large sum of US dollars. Such a big sum, of which a considerable portion is in US treasury bonds, contributes a great deal to maintaining the position of the dollar as a reserve currency. Russia, Switzerland, and several other countries have reduced the their dollar holdings.
"China is unlikely to follow suit as long as the yuan's exchange rate is stable against the dollar. The Chinese central bank will be forced to sell dollars once the yuan appreciated dramatically, which might lead to a mass depreciation of the dollar," he told China Daily.
The threats play into the presidential electoral campaign of Hillary Clinton, who has called for restrictive legislation to prevent America being "held hostage to economic decicions being made in Beijing, Shanghai, or Tokyo".
She said foreign control over 44pc of the US national debt had left America acutely vulnerable.
Simon Derrick, a currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, said the comments were a message to the US Senate as Capitol Hill prepares legislation for the Autumn session.
"The words are alarming and unambiguous. This carries a clear political threat and could have very serious consequences at a time when the credit markets are already afraid of contagion from the subprime troubles," he said.
A bill drafted by a group of US senators, and backed by the Senate Finance Committee, calls for trade tariffs against Chinese goods as retaliation for alleged currency manipulation.
The yuan has appreciated 9pc against the dollar over the last two years under a crawling peg but it has failed to halt the rise of China's trade surplus, which reached $26.9bn in June.
Henry Paulson, the US Tresury Secretary, said any such sanctions would undermine American authority and "could trigger a global cycle of protectionist legislation".
Mr Paulson is a China expert from his days as head of Goldman Sachs. He has opted for a softer form of diplomacy, but appeared to win few concession from Beijing on a unscheduled trip to China last week aimed at calming the waters.
Who will they sell to?
Regards
The Clintons and the Chinese have always gotten along well.
It will not be long before they turn the tables. China is going to beat us with our own stick.
Only a fool wouldn’t have seeen this coming.
Why didn’t you include Bush. He is buddy with them too.
Hmmmmmm. The yuan is tied to the dollar. If they nuke the dollar, they nuke themselves.
Unless they float the yuan, which is what we want them to do in the first place...
Did I get that right?
Destroy the dollar and they destroy their largest buyer of goods. How will all the corrupt Chinese officials feather their nests?
I hope they call it ‘operation footbullet.’
That will be the impact to China.
Count on commies not to grasp the basics of economics.
We could try physical nuke-yew-lar options.
Aw, who cares? We’ll just print even MORE money! Wheeee!
Noboby saw this coming - sheesh
They certainly know how to get the U.S. Congress to react —make threats about money.
Besides, if they want to do that, we could pretty much singled-handedly put the whole country on unemployment. Probably everything they make is sent to the U.S.
And if they dump dollars, who will buy from them? They have more to fear from internal unrest than pretty much anyone, and if we can’t afford to buy Chinese goods, the Chicoms are going to have hundreds of millions of unemployed city dwellers to deal with.
As I said, by hurting us they would virtually tank their own economy given the amount of merch we import from them.
It ain’t gonna happen
Amazing how they pulled a Hilary quote out of their hat...
A word of warning, China, Americans have one heck of a long memory. There are still people who will not buy Japanese made goods. Nor German cars. I have heard more people ask about source countries at markets, gift shops, even stationary stores, seeking to avoid ‘made in China’.
You do not want to see what this is like on a national scale. Your possible joy over ‘bringing the United States to it’s knees’ can have consequences for half a century into the future. No matter what, our economy will recover. Will yours?
“I hope they call it ‘operation footbullet.’ That will be the impact to China. Count on commies not to grasp the basics of economics.”
They need to ask themselves: “Do you hurt the debtor or the lender by decreasing the relative value of the debt?”
Probably save all those people who have too big mortgages, too.
Sucks to be Sallie Mae, et al, but I don’t care.
They have a special relationship.
—A bill drafted by a group of US senators, and backed by the Senate Finance Committee, calls for trade tariffs against Chinese goods as retaliation for alleged currency manipulation.—
Max Baucus (D - Mt.) is the Chairman. He is up for re-election in 2008. This tension may be more bluster than substance, both on the RATS’ and on China’s part. But stranger things have happened...
You mean the way Russia hung itself w/ the rope we sold to
Nikita Kruschev?
If China unloads its vast currency reserves in the form of
US T’s, US int rates rise presumably, strengthening the USD.
Making dollar-denominated assets more attractive and thus
tunring overseas risk capital into flight capital. And thus drawing
foreign capital away from risky places like China and inviting
that capital into safe havens like....US T’s.
China can use the stick. They can even use a stick that they
manufactured in direct violation of patent rights. We’ll use stealth.
MV
Give this pedestrian a thumbnail sketch of what it's talking about, please.
How does a nation 'buy' dollars?
Why would they?
Why would we sell?
I vaguely understand FRN's ( but not really)
Anyway ... that's your job on FR ... edamucate us dumbo's.
I’m sure the Fed would be glad to buy them at 1 cent to the dollar......
__________________________________________________________
Let’s sell them Rockefeller Center at inflated prices like we did to the Japanese . . . and then buy it back at pennies on the dollar!
Let ‘em. Let’s see what happens to their own banks as a result. Their own banks are in a world of hurt. We stop buying Chinese goods, China’s ‘bicycle economy’ stops moving forward and tips over, leaving their banks with massive uncollectable debt.
And furthermore, who’d buy the paper?
It sounds like they don’t understand economics. Unloading their dollars all at once would be economic suicide for them, not such a bad deal for us.
>>>Hmmmmmm. The yuan is tied to the dollar. If they nuke the dollar, they nuke themselves.
>>>Unless they float the yuan, which is what we want them to do in the first place...
>>>Did I get that right?
Touche!
MV
I understand that it has potential significant consequences.
You'd be wise to ask others for advise on this subject. (Now, if you want to talk about anthropology/archaeology I'd be glad...)
bump.
Precisely. China dumps US Treasuries, the dollar tanks, the yuan floats to where it should have been all along, and Chinese products cost more than American products.
We get hyperinflation, surging interest rates, and a recession...but we benefit from a newfound surge in US manufacturing, more jobs, and a stronger long-term outlook.
China gets an enormous drop in GDP, pennies on the dollar for all of those US treasuries that they gobbled up when the dollar was strong, and loses their biggest export market.
In the short term, both nations suffer. In the long-term, the US benefits.
I was under the impression they held U.S Treasury bonds.
For how long? China has a plan that is pretty obvious.
That little comment probably shaved a couple of percent off the existing value of their currency reserves.
This could also help solvesome of our mortgage and consumer debt load problems. Nothing like devalued currency to ease debt burdens. The stock brokers jumping out of windows would be collateral damage.
From the nation that gave us Sun Tsu, China sure has an impressive history of using their stick. NOT.
And how. There goes the Chinese manufacturing industry and the profits that hold their new ruling class afloat. Make my day.
So I borrow a twenny from the guy and give him an IOU. He sells the IOU to another guy for a dime. That other guy asks me for the twenny. I give it to him. How did I lose in this?
“He Fan, an official at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, went even further today, letting it be known that Beijing had the power to set off a dollar collapse if it choose to do so.”
Please don’t tell me that ‘choose’ is going the way of ‘loose.’
declare the treasury notes held by them to be null and void due to their actions.
That’ll but a crimp in their plans.
Try telling that to your mortgage company.
Let them do it. And then lets us close our ports to their crap in retaliation and laugh as the millions of unemployed across China riot and overthrow the filty old men who enslave them.
And this from a country that puts poison into dog food, medicine, toys and whatever and then sells it to the U.S.
Oh, the horror!
If you are already a few trillion in debt....You lose.
NFP
You forgot the other side of the coin to devaluation: inflation.
Ping.
“Uh no... If the yuan floats and appreciates by 50%, then China’s GDP just doubled.”
No, it means they have a tailspin of inflation.
Leave me out of this!
In the 1930's, the Germans best trading partner was ... France
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