Posted on 08/11/2007 10:29:53 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued
A Republican hasn’t won the Senate race in Massachusetts since 1972 (same as New Jersey, excluding a brief 1982 appointment, and not counting the odious ‘94 Lautenberg-Chuck Haytaian race, which the latter probably won). Even under the most ideal of circumstances, when Reagan carried MA in 1984, we couldn’t get above 45% of the vote (Kerry’s first race against Ray Shamie). Weld couldn’t get as high a percentage of the vote as Shamie did, scoring just slightly below, when he ran in ‘96 (although he got a scant 3,000 more votes than Shamie).
Even against Kennedy, no Republican has reached that 45% mark in all of his runs, and the highest was George Cabot Lodge in 1962 when he scored just below that (like with Kerry, his first run was his lowest %). Romney placed 2nd to Lodge’s % in his ‘94 run in a low turnout election with 41% (he got only 10,000 more votes than future State Treasurer Joe Malone 6 years earlier, but Malone got only 34% of the vote).
I just don’t think it’s possible to win a Senate race in MA now, because we must not forget that the party there is DEAD. There is no real infrastructure, no GOTV, no nothing. We’re not really even in much of a position to exploit the weaknesses of Kerry of DeVal Patrick, because they may be withering on the vine, but there’s still life to them, and live beats dead.
If Romney had won reelection, I think if he decided to take on Kerry next year, he’d still have come up short — and I’ll bet he’d have been lucky to get 40% against him. Kerry’s sole vulnerability comes in the Dem primary, but fortunately for him, no Democrat incumbent Senator in MA has ever been defeated in a primary since popular elections began, and the last time a Dem incumbent Senator was beaten at all was when the liberal RINO Henry Cabot Lodge knocked off the aged Isolationist Catholic (and allegedly gay) FDR foe, Democrat David Walsh in 1946. Lodge was then, of course, in turn beaten by his more Conservative Dem opponent in 1952, a fella named John Fitzgerald Kennedy.
In any event, I think a Zogby special sauce poll showing a near-total unknown trailing Kerry by a few points should be taken with a grain of salt (why would an unknown be doing better than Kerry Healey ? That makes no sense right there).
‘Cept White’s victory was a fluke, and he rode the anti-GOP year of 1982 to office (much like so many of the rodent bozos last November). He proved a dud, and ex-Gov. Bill Clements came back in 1986 and handed him his butt (and as the final humiliation, White placed a distant 3rd when he tried to run again in 1990, losing badly to “Ma” Richards in the Dem primary).
Good luck and prayers on that successful bypass surgery. Let us know how it goes.
I’m not buying it. A Democrat’s job in Massachussetts is as secure as the Pope’s job at the Vatican. Nothing will change that as Barney Frank and Gerry Studds have proved.
You’re right that Massachusetts won’t reject the liberal politics of John Kerry. But it’s possible that they could reject John Kerry, the person. Clearly, the public views him as a pompous dilletante. That gives Jeff Beatty an opening.
I suppose the Democrat primary there should be watched closely. He faces a primary challenge from a former Glouchester City Councilman (who is a certified Moonbat and Howard the Dean supporter). If Kerry polls poorly then, than Jeff Beatty will be a contender.
At best, Beatty might get exposure for a future office (for all the good it did poor Black Republican Jack E. Robinson), but for us to get suckered into believing Kerry, if he wins renomination, will lose in a state where Republicans can caucus in a phonebooth, is just crazy. The state may reject Kerry, but they won’t VOTE against him. The crazy White leftists up there are as sadly addicted to rodentry as Black voters are. It’s like crack.
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Best of luck to you, FRiend.
You know, if the GOP at EACH state level doesn’t SEE that this is the time to challenge ALL incumbents in the House and Senate with stronger, more conservative candidates (whether they need to shed a ‘Rat or a RINO), then they are dumber than I think; and I already think they can’t get much dumber, LOL!
Seriously. It’s an opportune time to strike! However, this is the response from the state of Wisconsin, and I’ll bet many, many other divided Red/Blue states:
*Crickets Chirping*
*SIGH* :(
I keep flashing back to Paul Revere and all the great founders from Massachusetts. What happened?!
What happened is that they died and their ideological descendants voted with their feet.
Far more believable figures. I'd ultimately expect Beatty to probably score in the 25-30% range. But Romney is so committed to the Presidential race, he just won't make the jump into this Senate contest. Still, I'd expect a lot of raw feelings for the way Romney abandoned his state and party in his quest for the White House, and that would have a modest impact if he did switch over to make a run against Kerry (and I still say I'd find it hard to see him going over 40%, even 45% seems too much of a stretch).
As for Weld, had he been the nominee against Kennedy in '94, he quite possibly could've prevailed there, but we all probably would've regretted his presence in the Senate in short order, as he was clearly a liberal, and a gigantic ass to boot, and I wouldn't have put it past him to have pulled a Jeffords before Jeffords did. Of course, given his penchant for getting bored with whatever job he has, he probably would've quit or went looking for another office before long. Romney just reminds me too much of his political hero.
Indeed Romney will never run for the US Senate again, and though you are right, Romney is not as electable as he once was in Massachusetts, believe it or not, its more likely because he is no longer Pro-Choice.
Or does the State Democrat Committee make up some numbers and give them to the Boston Globe, who prints them?
Thanks. I have type II diabetes so the surgeon(Dr GRAVES by the way)said I have a 5% to 10% chance of not making it. This may be the last week of my life. My guardian angels have had a busy 2 months w/me already...
If you don’t hear from me 2-3 weeks from now, MOI went on to his reward....
I’m sure he could run and say “just kidding” about being pro-life. To me, it’s kind of sick and sad any state is militant about electing someone who supports homocide of the unborn.
Naah, you got to stick around. If you don’t, you become a Democrat voter, and I know you don’t want that !
LOL, probably if he was a Democrat, this state is dumb enough to believe anything they say.
My son graduated from Univ of Chicago which our family traveled to for the ceremony. But I didn’t DIE there and become a dem voter from the graveyard.
Strange place : black area west of Univ in which we went thru on the bus to el station. You didn’t DARE get off the bus there, like a bombed out city with trashed buildings, guys huddled around burn barrels. Then cabrini green where even the cops didn’t dare go. Bums and homeless everywhere.
But my 1 yr old grand daughter took her first steps on the top floor of the sears tower, she’s a 14 year old teeny bopper now w/ring in her nose. We were there on St Patricks day, they dye the river GREEN for that. Plus world’s biggest TOY STORE on Michigan Ave. Strange place....
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