Posted on 08/15/2007 2:01:38 PM PDT by shortstop
Dean continues to organize this afternoon. Although the cloud tops have warmed recently...the last few visible satellite pictures indicate a tightly curved band wrapping around the center. AMSU and trmm microwave images have also suggested the formation of a partial eyewall. Most objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are increasing...and the current intensity is raised to 55 kt.
The initial motion has shifted more to the west-northwest in the past six hours...around 285/19. This movement toward the west-northwest is expected to be brief as deep-layered ridging to the north of Dean strengthens overnight...forcing the storm on more of a westward course tomorrow. The global models now suggest that any interaction with a middle-level trough currently over the Bahamas will be limited as that feature is forecast to advance westward as an inverted trough well ahead of Dean. Numerical track guidance is in very good agreement with this scenario...showing the storm in the vicinity of the northwestern Caribbean Sea in about 5 days. The official forecast is shifted a little to the north during the first 36 hours...but is much faster and to the west of the previous track near the end of the period. It is Worth noting that the official forecast is still slower than the numerical model consensus.
Based on what we think we know about intensity change...there do not seem to be too many inhibiting factors to a future intensification of Dean. Global models unanimously develop a large upper-level anticyclone near the center of the hurricane as the system travels into the Caribbean Sea. In combination with very deep warm waters...this pattern would favor the development of a powerful hurricane. The official intensity forecast is higher than the previous NHC forecast and is in good agreement with a consensus of the SHIPS...GFDL...hwrf...and lgem models.
Beeee aaahhhhh yoouuuuu teeeeee fullllllllll
No Tornadoes, either.
Just blue skies and happiness, 24/7, throughout the world.
I was thinking the exact same thing
LOL! Good one
On to the Bahamas, Cuba, Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana..YEARRRRRGH
All major and minor hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, etc., occurred during Republican Administrations.
So bummed I made a joke, but the wrong one. Dean is much funnier.
Also homelessness, burning of the rainforests, acid rain, rising divorce rates, cancer, drug addiction, heart disease, teen pregnancy, and male pattern baldness.
All Republicans' fault. None of this existed under Bill Clinton. Or that other guy, erm, what's his name. President during the Disco era. /sarc
As we start paying $10+ per gallon of gasoline.........I'm betting the stations are raising the prices now........to avoid the rush.......
We are all DOOOMED I tell you Doomed.Will affect women and children first. Run for your lives.Back to my nap.
And the oil futures whizzos will have gas 50 cents more a gallon before this thing passes the Yucatan Strait.
Rove is on people's mind with his stepping down in a few weeks...
That’s an instant classic. Well done!
sure glad you are skipping alabama.
That would be spelled “chequers”, dearie.
Projections put this storm passing over Cuba and maybe entering the Gulf of Mexico after that.
Storms tend to drift Northward rather than Southward this time of year -- depending on steering currents (upper level winds).
Gulf, Caribbean are all considered Atlantic hurricanes......TS Erin is already in the Gulf.......headed for Texas coast.........
That storm needs to be animated with the Dean yell dubbed over it.
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