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Skip to comments.Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]
Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Three Day Tracking Map
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data East Caribbean
Buoy Data West Caribbean
Storm Model Tracks
Storm Surge graphic
Visible Satellite Still Image
Central Florida Hurricane Center
|Category||Wind Speed||Barometric Pressure||Storm Surge||Damage Potential|
|< 39 mph
< 34 kts
|39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
|74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
|28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
|4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
|Minimal damage to vegetation|
|96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
|28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
|6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
|Moderate damage to houses|
|111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
|27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
|9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
|Extensive damage to small buildings|
|131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
|27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
|13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
|Extreme structural damage|
|Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
|Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
|Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
|Catastrophic building failures possible|
Thanks, NN — I will be following as much as (ugh) work schedule permits....
Thank-you for the update!!!
Thanks. Watching from afar here in VA
Yikes that is moving fast!
Thanks from Mustang Island, Texas
Worth checking my supplies. Not quite time to get the malted milk balls though:)
Now that Rove has resigned who’s running the hurricane machine?
Dove Triple Chocolate Thrill cookies have replaced malted milk balls around here.
First we’re gonna go to Dominica, then we’re headed for Santa Lucia! Then we’re gonna race into the Lesser Antilles....AND WE’RE GONNA TELL EVERYONE IT’S BUSH’S FAULT!!!! YEEEEEAAAAARRRRRGHHHHHHH!
Usually, the storms don’t increase much in strength when they are moving so quickly.
I didn’t see where he had retired from running the hurricane machine. If anything, it may be his full time position now.
We added a portable wall AC to our hurricane supplies this year. We can run it off the generator if the power goes out and at least have one room that will be comfortable if we’re without power.
This Dean character looks like it might pass over Cayman...is your daughter still on the island?
Thanks for the ping, NN; we’ll be watching ol’ Dean closely!
Is it too early to start eating the chocolate?
Can I ask the hurricane pingers for prayers for my dh’s family today, my mother-in-law died at 3:05 a.m. this morning.
Thanks, and God bless.
Re: Rove - oh what sweet timing! lol
Dang. Castries is one of our stops on our upcoming cruise.
FINALLY!!! A Hurricane!
Now we can start about Man Made Global Warming and it’s being the cause of all this abnormally severe whether!!!!
Talk about withdrawl...
May God have her in His Glory.
We could do with some rain.
Our thoughts, our prayers.
At least with the Dean’s we get warned and have more time to prepare. When they pop up in the Gulf, they are almost here.
LOL some form of chocolate has to be in the emergency kit!
Yeah, yesterday I thought about going to Walmart. Then I got to thinking about crowds and did I really need to buy anything that others really might need. I looked in the frig and saw that my chocolate stash was still there so I stayed home:’)
NautiNurse’s hurricane threads are the best on here.
I’m hoping “Dean” peters out quickly!
Prayers for your family!
Psalm 116:15 Precious in the sight of the LORD [is] the death of his saints.
Figures. My in-laws are in St Lucia until Tuesday. My mother-in-law, who has in-operable cancer, just cut back chemo for the summer to be comfortable and to go on a nice vacation. I hope this thing peters out and lets them have that vacation.
Thank you NN.
But they are! This is the only place I can find hurricane information and explanation all at once. Not to mention the entertaining commentary and speculation. :)
Prayers for those affected by floods and twisters from Erin. Prayers that the Bermuda high will ease enough to let Dean come north while also weakening him to a tropical storm.
Tis true. I wish I had known about these threads back in `03 during Isabel. I had NO IDEA that chocolate was an essential hurricane supply. I had to learn the hard way.
Why is a hurricane thread in chat?
” Why is a hurricane thread in chat? “
Where should it be?? And why??
(Honest question — there’s lots of things I don’t understand about how the various threads are sorted into the pigeonholes...)
The NHC forcast is for Dean to most likely become a Cat. 4 Hurricane. And I heartily agree this thread should remain in breaking news.
Anyone remember Katrina’s impact on the nation?
Put them in the freezer. If you don't need them for an "emergency", that extra crunch is mighty nice.
I don’t claim to know the rules around here anymore. I saw “weather” as a topic, and this is where the thread landed. Perhaps the benevolent Admin Mods will see fit to move it to the news category when the storm imminently threatens death and destruction to populations.
Keep it up NN.
We’re relative newbies to hurricanes. My only experience is outrunning Isabel when we lived in VA Beach. My poor husband...*L* Toughed out Isabel on a US Navy fast attack submarine and toughed out Ivan when he was attending Navy school at NAS Pensacola. Now we live just a few miles from NAS Pax River, MD. NN I’m relying on you and the rest of the hurricane experts of FR to fill me in on the tips and tricks of getting through hurricane season.
At 1100 am AST...1500 UTC...the Trinidad and Tobago meteorological service has just changed the tropical storm watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Grenada and its dependencies. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
$$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Dean advisory number 13 1100 am AST Thu Aug 16 2007
...Dean intensifying as it approaches the Lesser Antilles...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of Dominica and St. Lucia. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch continues for the islands of Martinique... Guadeloupe and its dependencies. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. The government of France indicates that a Hurricane Warning will likely be issued this afternoon for Martinique...Guadeloupe and its dependencies.
At 11 am AST...1500 UTC...the meteorological service of Antigua has upgraded the tropical storm watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of Montserrat...Antigua...St. Kitts...Nevis...and Barbuda. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Barbados. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 11 am AST...the Barbados meteorological service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and The Grenadines.
At 11 am AST...the government of the Netherlands Antilles has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. The tropical storm watch for St. Maarten has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Grenada and its dependencies. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Additional changes to watches and warnings will likely occur later today.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles...the Virgin Islands...Puerto Rico...and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 1100 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 13.7 north...longitude 54.3 west or about 350 miles... 565 km...east of Barbados and about 455 miles...730 km...east of Martinique.
Dean is moving toward the west near 23 mph...37 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue today. On this track the center of Dean will be near the Lesser Antilles early Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over elevated terrain. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Dean this afternoon.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from the center. Data from NOAA buoy 41010 indicates that tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km...from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb...28.91 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels... accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible near the center of Dean.
Storm total rainfalls of 2 to 5 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in mountainous areas...are possible in association with Dean. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 1100 am AST position...13.7 N...54.3 W. Movement toward...west near 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds...90 mph. Minimum central pressure...979 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 200 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Blake/Avila