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Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]
NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

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Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dean; hurricane; hurricanedean; tropical; tsdean
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The 2007 hurricane season has turned serious with flooding and tornados spawned by TS Erin and the development of Hurricane Dean.
1 posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:19 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; Amelia; asp1; ..
Hurricane Dean is a speedy one moving at 24mph.
987mb, 75mph winds


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

2 posted on 08/16/2007 4:46:36 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

Got it.


3 posted on 08/16/2007 4:49:33 AM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks, NN — I will be following as much as (ugh) work schedule permits....


4 posted on 08/16/2007 4:50:52 AM PDT by Uncle Ike (We has met the enemy, and he is us........)
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To: NautiNurse
thanks

.

5 posted on 08/16/2007 4:52:43 AM PDT by Elle Bee
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To: NautiNurse

Thank-you for the update!!!


6 posted on 08/16/2007 4:52:48 AM PDT by Guenevere (Duncan Hunter for President 2008!!!)
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks. Watching from afar here in VA


7 posted on 08/16/2007 4:55:16 AM PDT by SlowBoat407 (There's more than one way to burn a book. - Ray Bradbury)
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To: NautiNurse

Yikes that is moving fast!


8 posted on 08/16/2007 4:59:55 AM PDT by tiredoflaundry (Bill O'Reilly is a pinhead.)
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks from Mustang Island, Texas


9 posted on 08/16/2007 5:01:51 AM PDT by Hang'emAll (WE WILL NOT DISARM!!!)
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To: NautiNurse

Hhhmmm...

Worth checking my supplies. Not quite time to get the malted milk balls though:)


10 posted on 08/16/2007 5:02:42 AM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet -Fred'08)
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To: NautiNurse

Now that Rove has resigned who’s running the hurricane machine?


11 posted on 08/16/2007 5:02:48 AM PDT by mainepatsfan
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To: SE Mom

Dove Triple Chocolate Thrill cookies have replaced malted milk balls around here.


12 posted on 08/16/2007 5:12:26 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

First we’re gonna go to Dominica, then we’re headed for Santa Lucia! Then we’re gonna race into the Lesser Antilles....AND WE’RE GONNA TELL EVERYONE IT’S BUSH’S FAULT!!!! YEEEEEAAAAARRRRRGHHHHHHH!


13 posted on 08/16/2007 5:13:19 AM PDT by NRA1995 (To Congress and Mr. President: This is OUR country, and don't you forget it!)
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To: tiredoflaundry

Usually, the storms don’t increase much in strength when they are moving so quickly.


14 posted on 08/16/2007 5:14:11 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: mainepatsfan

I didn’t see where he had retired from running the hurricane machine. If anything, it may be his full time position now.


15 posted on 08/16/2007 5:18:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse
Light Sweet Crude is under $70/bbl, so investors will get a break when oil goes over $80.bbl with the fear from the drive-by media.
16 posted on 08/16/2007 5:19:48 AM PDT by BlabItGrabIt (Sly, Shy, and Wry)
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To: NautiNurse

Thank NN.

We added a portable wall AC to our hurricane supplies this year. We can run it off the generator if the power goes out and at least have one room that will be comfortable if we’re without power.

Onyx,

This Dean character looks like it might pass over Cayman...is your daughter still on the island?


17 posted on 08/16/2007 5:22:29 AM PDT by dawn53
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for the ping, NN; we’ll be watching ol’ Dean closely!

Is it too early to start eating the chocolate?

Can I ask the hurricane pingers for prayers for my dh’s family today, my mother-in-law died at 3:05 a.m. this morning.

Thanks, and God bless.


18 posted on 08/16/2007 5:22:43 AM PDT by trillabodilla (Jesus Saves)
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To: NautiNurse

Re: Rove - oh what sweet timing! lol


19 posted on 08/16/2007 5:22:55 AM PDT by RDTF (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, but Democrats believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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To: mainepatsfan
Not to worry, he just switched hats ...

20 posted on 08/16/2007 5:26:47 AM PDT by oh8eleven (RVN '67-'68)
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To: NautiNurse

Dang. Castries is one of our stops on our upcoming cruise.


21 posted on 08/16/2007 5:27:54 AM PDT by cll (Carthage must be destroyed)
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To: NautiNurse

FINALLY!!! A Hurricane!

Now we can start about Man Made Global Warming and it’s being the cause of all this abnormally severe whether!!!!

Talk about withdrawl...


22 posted on 08/16/2007 5:28:27 AM PDT by Tenacious 1 (No to nitwit jesters with a predisposition of self importance and unqualified political opinions!)
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To: trillabodilla

May God have her in His Glory.


23 posted on 08/16/2007 5:29:11 AM PDT by cll (Carthage must be destroyed)
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To: trillabodilla

Done. +


24 posted on 08/16/2007 5:30:05 AM PDT by Tenacious 1 (No to nitwit jesters with a predisposition of self importance and unqualified political opinions!)
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To: NautiNurse

We could do with some rain.


25 posted on 08/16/2007 5:36:59 AM PDT by mtbopfuyn (I think the border is kind of an artificial barrier - San Antonio councilwoman Patti Radle)
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To: trillabodilla

Our thoughts, our prayers.


26 posted on 08/16/2007 5:38:53 AM PDT by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: NautiNurse

At least with the Dean’s we get warned and have more time to prepare. When they pop up in the Gulf, they are almost here.


27 posted on 08/16/2007 5:46:14 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: SE Mom

LOL some form of chocolate has to be in the emergency kit!


28 posted on 08/16/2007 5:49:53 AM PDT by tutstar (Baptist Ping list - freepmail me to get on or off.)
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To: tutstar

Yeah, yesterday I thought about going to Walmart. Then I got to thinking about crowds and did I really need to buy anything that others really might need. I looked in the frig and saw that my chocolate stash was still there so I stayed home:’)


29 posted on 08/16/2007 5:59:27 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: glide625

NautiNurse’s hurricane threads are the best on here.


30 posted on 08/16/2007 6:00:19 AM PDT by Xenalyte (Can you count, suckas? I say the future is ours . . . if you can count.)
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To: Xenalyte

:::blush:::


31 posted on 08/16/2007 6:02:36 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

I’m hoping “Dean” peters out quickly!


32 posted on 08/16/2007 6:04:11 AM PDT by tiredoflaundry (Bill O'Reilly is a pinhead.)
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To: trillabodilla

Prayers for your family!

Psalm 116:15 Precious in the sight of the LORD [is] the death of his saints.


33 posted on 08/16/2007 6:09:44 AM PDT by tutstar (Baptist Ping list - freepmail me to get on or off.)
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To: NautiNurse

Figures. My in-laws are in St Lucia until Tuesday. My mother-in-law, who has in-operable cancer, just cut back chemo for the summer to be comfortable and to go on a nice vacation. I hope this thing peters out and lets them have that vacation.


34 posted on 08/16/2007 6:11:31 AM PDT by randyclark
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To: NautiNurse

Thank you NN.
Much appreciated.


35 posted on 08/16/2007 6:24:04 AM PDT by milkncookies (Molon Labe)
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To: NautiNurse

But they are! This is the only place I can find hurricane information and explanation all at once. Not to mention the entertaining commentary and speculation. :)


36 posted on 08/16/2007 6:38:26 AM PDT by Xenalyte (Can you count, suckas? I say the future is ours . . . if you can count.)
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To: NautiNurse

Prayers for those affected by floods and twisters from Erin. Prayers that the Bermuda high will ease enough to let Dean come north while also weakening him to a tropical storm.


37 posted on 08/16/2007 6:42:12 AM PDT by brothers4thID (FDT: "Every notice that while our problems are getting bigger, our politicians are getting smaller?")
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To: Xenalyte; NautiNurse

Tis true. I wish I had known about these threads back in `03 during Isabel. I had NO IDEA that chocolate was an essential hurricane supply. I had to learn the hard way.


38 posted on 08/16/2007 6:47:00 AM PDT by brothers4thID (FDT: "Every notice that while our problems are getting bigger, our politicians are getting smaller?")
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To: NautiNurse

Why is a hurricane thread in chat?


39 posted on 08/16/2007 7:05:00 AM PDT by Dysart
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To: Dysart

” Why is a hurricane thread in chat? “

Where should it be?? And why??

(Honest question — there’s lots of things I don’t understand about how the various threads are sorted into the pigeonholes...)


40 posted on 08/16/2007 7:10:21 AM PDT by Uncle Ike (We has met the enemy, and he is us........)
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To: Uncle Ike
Well, I’m not the “decider”, but seems to me a hurricane tracking thread, which may well impact the cont u.s. would be considered news, rather than chat. Maybe it’s been declared otherwise. The chat sub-forum is typically designated for chitchat, sports, and essentially trivial concerns.
41 posted on 08/16/2007 7:17:28 AM PDT by Dysart
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To: Dysart

The NHC forcast is for Dean to most likely become a Cat. 4 Hurricane. And I heartily agree this thread should remain in breaking news.

Anyone remember Katrina’s impact on the nation?


42 posted on 08/16/2007 7:25:09 AM PDT by varina davis
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To: SE Mom
Not quite time to get the malted milk balls though:

Put them in the freezer. If you don't need them for an "emergency", that extra crunch is mighty nice.

43 posted on 08/16/2007 7:28:23 AM PDT by numberonepal (Don't Even Think About Treading On Me)
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To: Dysart; varina davis

I don’t claim to know the rules around here anymore. I saw “weather” as a topic, and this is where the thread landed. Perhaps the benevolent Admin Mods will see fit to move it to the news category when the storm imminently threatens death and destruction to populations.


44 posted on 08/16/2007 7:39:11 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: varina davis
I can’t see any place in Texas becoming a Katrina though. I guess it’s possible but ...nah.
45 posted on 08/16/2007 7:40:18 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: Xenalyte; NautiNurse
Ditto.

Keep it up NN.

46 posted on 08/16/2007 7:53:04 AM PDT by blam (Secure the border and enforce the law)
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To: blam

Thanks, FRiend.


47 posted on 08/16/2007 7:54:46 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

We’re relative newbies to hurricanes. My only experience is outrunning Isabel when we lived in VA Beach. My poor husband...*L* Toughed out Isabel on a US Navy fast attack submarine and toughed out Ivan when he was attending Navy school at NAS Pensacola. Now we live just a few miles from NAS Pax River, MD. NN I’m relying on you and the rest of the hurricane experts of FR to fill me in on the tips and tricks of getting through hurricane season.


48 posted on 08/16/2007 7:54:47 AM PDT by Severa (I can't take this stress anymore...quick, get me a marker to sniff....)
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To: All
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 16, 2007

At 1100 am AST...1500 UTC...the Trinidad and Tobago meteorological
service has just changed the tropical storm watch to a Tropical
Storm Warning for Grenada and its dependencies. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

 

Hurricane Dean advisory number  13
1100 am AST Thu Aug 16 2007

...Dean intensifying as it approaches the Lesser Antilles...

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of Dominica
and St. Lucia. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

 

A Hurricane Watch continues for the islands of Martinique...
Guadeloupe and its dependencies. A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours. The government of France indicates that a
Hurricane Warning will likely be issued this afternoon for
Martinique...Guadeloupe and its dependencies.

 
At 11 am AST...1500 UTC...the meteorological service of Antigua has
upgraded the tropical storm watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for
the islands of Montserrat...Antigua...St. Kitts...Nevis...and
Barbuda. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Barbados.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

 
At 11 am AST...the Barbados meteorological service has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and The Grenadines.

 
At 11 am AST...the government of the Netherlands Antilles has issued
a Tropical Storm Warning and discontinued the Hurricane Watch for
Saba and St. Eustatius.  The tropical storm watch for St. Maarten
has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

 
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Grenada and its
dependencies.  A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.

 
Additional changes to watches and warnings will likely occur later
today.

 
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles...the Virgin
Islands...Puerto Rico...and Hispaniola should monitor the progress
of Dean.

 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

 
At 1100 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 13.7 north...longitude 54.3 west or about 350 miles...
565 km...east of Barbados and about 455 miles...730 km...east of
Martinique.

 
Dean is moving toward the west near 23 mph...37 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue today.  On this track the center of
Dean will be near the Lesser Antilles early Friday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Dean is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale.  Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over
elevated terrain.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours.  An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft will
investigate Dean this afternoon.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from
the center.  Data from NOAA buoy 41010 indicates that tropical storm
force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km...from the
center.

 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb...28.91 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...
accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible
near the center of Dean.

 
Storm total rainfalls of 2 to 5 inches...with isolated maximum
amounts of 7 inches in mountainous areas...are possible in
association with Dean.  These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

 
Repeating the 1100 am AST position...13.7 N...54.3 W.  Movement
toward...west near 23 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...90 mph.
Minimum central pressure...979 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM AST.

 
$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila

49 posted on 08/16/2007 8:09:08 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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