Movement toward...west near 23 mph.
Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure...979 mb.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
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Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
I sincerely hope you are wrong. As we (East of Houston)are dealing with the tropical depression from today and everything here is wet, and several flooded roads abound.
Having said that, it bears watching but just thinking someone somewhere needs the rain more than we do.
Send an Ark....Please.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
...Hurricane Dean rapidly approaching the Lesser Antilles with 100 mph winds...
At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for Martinique...Guadeloupe and its dependencies a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of Dominica and St. Lucia. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following islands of the Lesser Antilles... Grenada and its dependencies...St. Vincent and The Grenadines...Barbados...Saba...St. Eustatius... monserrat...Antigua...Nevis...St Kitts...Barbuda and St. Maarten. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...a tropical storm watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles...Hispaniola...Jamaica and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 500 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 14.0 north...longitude 56.5 west or about 210 miles... 335 km...east-northeast of Barbados and about 305 miles...490 km... east of Martinique.
Dean is moving toward the west near 23 mph...37 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue tonight and tomorrow. On this track...the center of Dean will be crossing the Lesser Antilles early Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over elevated terrain. Some strengthening is forecast before the hurricane reaches the Lesser Antilles.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from the center. Data from NOAA buoy 41040...the French buoy 41101 and a new stepped-frequency microwave radiometer instrument on the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km...from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance plane was 979 mb...28.91 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels... accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible near the center of Dean.
Storm total rainfalls of 2 to 5 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in mountainous areas...are possible in association with Dean. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 500 PM AST position...14.0 N...56.5 W. Movement toward...west near 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure...979 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Avila/Blake
some good tidbits about ST Sepat in there too. Taiwan’s about to get hammered.
| Hurricane Dean Discussion Number 14 | |
an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been in the eye of Dean and the data so far indicate that the minimum pressure has been fluctuation between 974 and 979 mb. Maximum winds are estimated at 85 knots. The current convective banding structure and the expansion of the upper-level outflow observed on satellite images suggest that Dean is strengthening at this time. Dean is expected to carry an upper-level anticyclone with it...on its westward track across the Caribbean. This pattern is conducive to strengthening. Once Dean reaches the western Caribbean and moves over an area of very high ocean heat...it could become a category four hurricane. This is consistent with the SHIPS model and with dynamical guidance...mainly the GFDL and the hwrf which make Dean a very intense Hurricane.
Dean is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 20 knots. A strong and deep anticyclone is forecast to remain anchored north of Dean. This pattern would provide a continued westward steering during the next 3 to 4 days with some west-northwestward component as the hurricane reaches the edge of the high by day five. Track models are in outstanding agreement bringing the hurricane across the Caribbean Sea. This adds confidence to the track forecast.
The French buoy...41001...recently reported sustained winds of 50 knots. This information helped with estimates of the wind radii.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 16/2100z 14.0n 56.5w 85 kt 12hr VT 17/0600z 14.4n 59.7w 90 kt 24hr VT 17/1800z 15.0n 63.5w 95 kt 36hr VT 18/0600z 15.5n 67.0w 100 kt 48hr VT 18/1800z 16.0n 70.5w 110 kt 72hr VT 19/1800z 17.5n 78.0w 115 kt 96hr VT 20/1800z 19.5n 84.5w 120 kt 120hr VT 21/1800z 22.0n 90.5w 90 kt
$$ forecaster Avila/Blake
Thanks. Hurricane Ivan kicked my butt.
However, I wouldn't put much credence in any model past 72 hours. After all, Rita 96 hours out was forecast to hit Matagorda Bay. It hit the TX-LA border instead.
I hope it’s wrong, too. I wouldn’t wish this storm on anyone!
I think GFDL, BAMM are pretty good for the long runners. NOGAPS is a better short term model.
They privatized it.
What’s going on in Houston, right now? My husband is supposed to fly out of Houston tomorrow morning and I’m wondering if the storm is going to interfere with that.
Bttt!
Eva...I drove from Houston to Corpus today. Corpus is absolutely clear now...maybe one puffy cloud (a little, cute, puffy cloud), but that’s it.
Houston’s expecting some thunderstorms and stuff (60%?) tomorrow, but most of the really wicked stuff seems to have passed through...
All the best.
Thanks, I guess my husband should be home on time.
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