Possible tropical cyclone within 48 hours (20N 60W-NNE of the Lesser Antilles)

NOAA ^ | 2007-08-20 | (mariner's 1-2-3 rule chart)

[Clive]

This chart will automatically update periodically.

[Clive]

This thread is in respect of the potential tropical cyclone northnorthwest of the Lesser Antilles and is not in respect of Hurricane Dean whic also shows on the above chart.

For discussion of Dean, see NautiNurse's thread:

Hurricane Dean Live Thread Part III

[Clive]

-

[theDentist]

You’re just full of good news, aren’t you.

[NonValueAdded]

Yow ... missed this with all the focus on Dean.

Joe, please ping out to the Florida list lest we be sucker-punched.

[mutley]

[NonValueAdded]

Invest92I

[lexington minuteman 1775]

Oh no!

[mewzilla]

There’s always one really screwy model....

[mutley]

There’s always one really screwy model....

It does always seem that way, doesn't it? LOL!

[The South Texan]

We’re Doooomed!

[mewzilla]

Go, blue!

[tutstar]

I noticed that this morning and thought that if we ignore it, it might go away. LOL

[Happy Valley Dude]

Definitely some to keep your eye on if you live in Florida.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Keep that mother AWAY from us in South Florida! :)

[tutstar]

can you tell me what page you went to to get that? ty

[Joe Brower]

Florida Freeper

[NonValueAdded]

Thanks, Joe

[Think free or die]

Well since we’re heading to the NC outer banks on vacation next week, I can pretty well guarantee where it will go . . . We have a vacation jinx in our household. Even a trip to my parents appears to be jinxed. It’s raining non-stop after a dry summer (SW Michigan), my son was just diagnosed with Lyme Disease, and now another tropical storm is forming just in time for our trip to the beach. Sigh.

[SE Mom]

Well lookie here..what have we brewing out in the Atlantic..

[Greg F]

Wind wind go away,
Come again some other day.

[Happy Valley Dude]

can you tell me what page you went to to get that? ty

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

[NautiNurse]

Per the NHC discussion:

The wave is simply an area of showers of thunderstorms located a few hundred miles NE of the northern Leeward Islands. Upper level winds may become more favorable gradually in a couple of days.

Way too early to worry about this system.

[mutley]

WTNT02 KNGU 201600Z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 201600Z AUG 07// RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.3N 54.7W TO 27.0N 65.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 54.7W HAS FORMED BENEATH INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN ANALYZED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009MB. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DISORGANZIED.HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEAK WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM, TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ENHANCED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211600Z.

[NonValueAdded]

to worry, agreed, but not too early to keep a weather eye on it while Dean sops up all the coverage.

[mutley]

Latest models.

[mutley]

to worry, agreed, but not too early to keep a weather eye on it while Dean sops up all the coverage.



It bears watching.

[Severa]

Hurricane novice I might be, I’m keeping watch on this one from my seat in Great Mills, MD (just a few miles from NAS Pax River)

[yield 2 the right]

Well, I will now predict that the Jacksonville Florida metro area will not be hit directly may get at most some high winds near gale force and heavy rains( a normal summer time T-storm), sure could use something to kill the humidity a little...

[yield 2 the right]

If the model tracks going the way they are it should be West Palm Beach south to the Keys event, if the tracks continue their course wsw-w....

[yield 2 the right]

*.....my son was just diagnosed with Lyme Disease*
how bad is this case of Lyme Disease and how are the treatments(I hope there is something lest painful as possible)?
Prayers for all concerned...

[George from New England]

select group of anti-biotics are used

[Clive]

Accuweather update of 1645EDT 2007-08-20:

Another feature worth watching is a tropical wave that is along 58 west, south of 25 north. An area of blossoming convection is along the northern end of the wave between 20 and 25 north. Some computer model information suggests that the northern part of this wave might become an organized tropical system in the southwest Atlantic in a couple of days.

[brytlea]

I agree. I’m not ready for a hurricane. My puppies have to get old enough to go home!
susie

[brytlea]

Thank you, I feel better now!
:)
susie

[brytlea]

Oh great, now I’m worried again.
susie

[dragnet2]

Bookmark

[Bushbacker1]

Rush country. Southeast of us. They, Palm Beach County Commission, will be happy 610 WIOD decided to keep doing emergency broadcasting, despite carrying Rush.

[ATOMIC_PUNK]

WOW was just in melborne last week on buisness hope all those fine folks down there are ok if this hits !

[stboz]

Bad news, folks. James Carvile has taken control of Rove’s weather machine. We are sooo screwed!

[Think free or die]

Thank you for the prayers. Lyme Disease isn't a fun diagnosis, but hopefully we're catching it early enough for simple and successful treatment.

We suspect he was exposed while at Scout camp two weeks ago in northern PA. He started the fever Saturday night, and as soon as he said his joints ached, I thought LD was a possibility. It's not flu season, and he didn't have congestion or intestinal problems. Since he continued with low-grade fever on Sunday, I was ready to take him to the clinic this morning in any case. When he told me this morning that he had a bump in his armpit and a rash on his side, it was a done deal. He's on Doxycycline for 10 days, following up with his regular doctor on Thursday. The clinic doctor seemed very competent, but since we have considerably more experience with LD in Pennsylvania than in SW Michigan, I'll feel better when his regular doctor reviews the situation.

Today he's feeling more peppy and keeping up his energy in the evening - perhaps due to the the ibuprofen, since it seems early for the antibiotics to be helping much yet.

[3D-JOY]

Ah Melbourne! That’s home for me...well nearby, on the beach.

I left in June and am ready to return...NOW!

[tutstar]

Thank you!

[Guenevere]

It’s coming to Melbourne????

[tutstar]

we’ll have to see...fox weather chick just said the high should break down in about 48 hrs and we’ll see if this turns into Felix

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200792_model.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[Guenevere]

Thanks....I’m north of Melbourne...but not by much.

[tutstar]

I’m in Jacksonville. I would welcome a good dousing!! It’s been stifling.

[Justa]

Heh. Sounds like you have your hands full. Good luck to your son with Lyme’s disease. I hope they caught it early.

[Guenevere]

We fled to Jacksonville during one of those evacuations 3 years ago.

[Think free or die]

Thank you. I think it’s early. Fortunately, he’s a sturdy boy.

[Justa]

"We suspect he was exposed while at Scout camp two weeks ago in northern PA."

FYI.... When I came down with it years ago it was with similar symptoms at 1+ weeks after being bitten. The fever and chills didn't break until day 9-of-10 of tetracyline treatment. The fever/chill cycle was rather weird and cycled every hour. I couldn't hold anything down and subsisted on ibuprofen, tetracycline and Gatoraide (electrolytes) for 12 days, losing over 20 lbs. I was worried the disease might not have been cured since there was only one day of anti-biotics beyond the fever break. Since then I've had no other symptoms or recurrences so I suppose it was enough.

Although I was infected I consider it fortunate I had pronounced symptoms early so that the initial treatment would cure it. Some people don't show symptoms until years later and then it's very difficult to get rid of. Good luck. I think your son is lucky with early symptoms and hopefully will come out of it fine.