Can Hillary win the Presidency with a 49% unapproval rating?

The Hillary Project ^ | Kathy Miller

[Abathar]

What was Nixon’s rating going into the ‘68 elections? I missed Charles Krauthammer mention that last night in reference to Hillary’s ratings, but it sounded like his was that low also.

[stockstrader]

Good post. It's amazing that the Rudy-Apologists can't see that the only possible way Hillary can win--is by dividing the Republican Party.

No other credible candidate does that better than a liberal like Rudy.

[SamuraiScot]

They're relying on Bubba to pick up the women's vote

Actually, it's the divorced female and never-married and divorced male vote that goes for the Clintonoids, as I recall. I believe Mrs. Ankles and the Dems have no general edge among women per se. What there is between Dems and the GOP is a "Marriage Gap."

What the Chappaqua Mafia represents is a coalition of those who have given up on the moral life. Unfortunately, among the divorced and never-married population, such victims of their own despair seem to have a majority.

[Greg F]

Local Republican organizations need poll watchers. New York City Repubs with the Guilianni political campaign worked with Rikers Island Guards to provide muscle to protect poll watchers and lawyers (shutting down voter fraud in an inner city polling place can get very ugly very quickly), telephone banks to dispatch lawyers with injunctions in hand (banks in undisclosed location) etc. to limit voter fraud. Worked well, any Republican orgs that are worried about it should contact New York republicans regarding.

[Tallguy]

You’ll hear arguments on both sides. My opinion: No. Bill Clinton cannot serve as Vice President. The VP nominee must meet all the criteria of the presidential nominee. WJC is disqualified having served his 2 elected terms in office.

Others will tell you that he could still “succeed” to the presidency. In short, if the Dems tried it there’d be a Constitutional fight.

[gridlock]

If the Electors from New York cannot vote for Bubba, he cannot be elected Veep, under any realistic electoral math.

[only1percent]

Yes, she can win. Hillary starts out gaining from 2%-4% in women Republicans and a reversion to the norm from the unusually high number of black and Latino Bush voters in 2004. The economy and the war are all but certain to be perceived to be worse in 2008 than in 2004, maybe giving her another 2%-4% in swing voters. That transforms Bush's 2% margin into a deficit of 2% to 4%. Is gut anti-Hillary sentiment among Kerry voters so severe that 1 in 12 (4% vs. his 48%) will switch because of it? Not likely.

We'll beat her on the issues, by showing Republican women that Hillary is bad for their families and showing swing voters that the Democrats lack a better plan for the economy and Iraq. That's leaves a formidable quantity of white Kerry voters who have to be won over.

[tioga]

-the question IS can 51% win her the election?

[.cnI redruM]

Yes. If the GOP has a 51% unfavorable rating, she can win.

If a voter hates both Hillary and the GOP candidate, that person may hate Hillary less.

[riverdawg]

I don’t recall Nixon’s popularity ratings before the 1968 election, but he won the Presidency largely because George Wallace siphoned enough popular and electoral votes from Humphrey in Southern states that, at the time, were still heavily Democrat.

I agree with earlier posters who said that the biggest threats a Republican nominee faces in 2008 is a conservative third-party candidate who emerges because of dissatisfaction with that nominee.

[CommerceComet]

I think Algore could win, no matter who the 'Pubbies run.

I tend to agree with that statement. Al Gore would hold all the blue states.

Contrary to what many on this forum think, Giuliani will hold all the southern states against Hillary. That would not be true in a race with Al Gore. I don't see where Giuliani would make up for these lost red southern states against a perceived moderate Democrat like Gore.

In a battle of the Tennesseans, Gore would have an advantage in that he would have a large block of electoral votes in the blue states already locked up. Thompson would be defending more vulnerable states and Gore could really go on the offensive in battleground states. Given the current political environment, Gore would have a very good shot at carrying Ohio against Thompson. Gore came within 537 votes of carrying Florida against another southern candidate so you have to say that Florida is within his reach. Gore would probably get New Hampshire this time. The other state that I think that a moderate Democrat like Gore could pick up with hard campaigning is Missouri.

[Inspectorette]

In 2000, Al Gore had overwhelming popularity and won the popular vote

Huh?? "Overwhelming popularity"???

[drubyfive]

Gotta watch the FR grammar police...they can be brutal.

People judge you by the words you use.

[dirtboy]

Contrary to what many on this forum think, Giuliani will hold all the southern states against Hillary.

I'm sorry, he would not hold Southern states and he would have a hard time pulling in blue dog Democrats. Rudy is pro-abort and anti-gun. That is a lethal combination for a GOP nominee. It means that person will not hold the base and will not attract Reagan Dems. And Rudy cannot run leftwards for more votes on a pro-war stance. He is boxed in by his past. The GOP would be suicidal to climb in that box with him.

[A. Patriot]

Can Hillary win the Presidency with a 49% unapproval rating?

With the help of the DiBold voting machines installed all over this nation, sure she can win.

[guinnessman]

Exactly!

Hillary’s best chance is to run a campaign so nasty, and drive up the Republican nominee’s negatives so high, that as much as voters dislike Hillary, they’ll hate the Republican more.

[popdonnelly]

Sure. She’s got her Clintonista mouthpieces all over the place, she never tells the truth, and 85% of the news media is on her side. It should be easy.

[PilloryHillary]

People judge you by the words you use.

I didn't write the article.

[TNCMAXQ]

Re 1968, some say Wallace being in the race was a boost to Humphrey. Nixon even said in his book that Wallace took conservative voters away from him. Nixon’s margin might have been larger. He almost certainly would have carried TX so his electoral college margin would have been larger. Without Wallace in the race Nixon thought he would have taken an outright majority of the popular vote too.

[riverdawg]

“... Bubba ... cannot be elected Veep ...”

I agree, but mainly because he is Constitutionally ineligible for the office (I hope).