TAPE-DELAYED DEBATE ANALYSIS: THOMPSON, RUDY, HUCK DOMINATE

MSNBC ^ | Chuck Todd

[2ndDivisionVet]

There were three clear winners tonight: Giuliani, Huckabee and Thompson. And there was one big loser tonight: Romney.

Let’s start with the winners: Thompson came out a winner within the first five minutes thanks to the moderator’s opening question about the candidate-to-be’s decision to go on Jay Leno instead of showing up for this debate. The fact that every candidate (including Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee and even McCain) took potshots (a few of which were even a bit cheap) reinforced the idea that the entire Republican field views Thompson as a major candidate, a major threat and one of the frontrunners. The Thompson folks could not have asked for a better setup.

As for the two winners of the debate who actually participated, Giuliani’s performance was particularly strong, perhaps his best debate to date. He’s clearly comfortable being the frontrunner; he absorbs the attacks from opponents without looking as if that opponent matters. His strongest answers were in defense of NOT signing the no-tax pledge and on guns. Judging by how Giuliani treated his opponents on stage, one gets the sense the only candidate Giuliani fears is Thompson since he’s the only candidate Rudy truly engaged.

--snip--

The big loser tonight (of the top tier candidates) was Romney. He certainly didn’t have any friends among the debate questioners and the diner patrons and that kept Romney on the defensive all night. (Will his campaign question how much they’ve been sucking up to Fox, btw?) In all seriousness, Romney’s got to figure out how to turn all these attacks into a positive; Wednesday night was not a great night for the candidate purported to be ahead in the early states.

[2ndDivisionVet]

The MSM sure does love Rudy and Nanny State Huckabee.

[Rudder]

In terms of electibility for the general, the GOPs two strongest candidates are Thompson and Giuliani, like it or not.

[mathluv]

'(Will his campaign question how much they’ve been sucking up to Fox, btw?)'

No bias there! Or is it just jealousy?

[2ndDivisionVet]

Seems like Fox News is squarely in Rudy’s corner, though, from what I’ve been reading.

[mathluv]

T. Boone Pickens was on with Neal yesterday. When Neal asked who he supported, he said "your boy" - which was Rudy.

How much of that is the fact that Rudy is a NYC guy? Last night did not really do any of them any good.

I got a kick out of the cafe people saying that all Rudy could talk about was his record in NYC.

[KDD]

MSNBC poll.

Who stood out from the pack? * 42448 responses

Sam Brownback
0.9%

Jim Gilmore
0.5%

Rudy Giuliani
7.3%

Mike Huckabee
3%

Duncan Hunter
1%

John McCain
5%

Ron Paul
71%

Mitt Romney
7.3%

Tom Tancredo
2.3%

Tommy Thompson
1.8%

Who showed the most leadership qualities? * 42088 responses

Sam Brownback
0.9%

Jim Gilmore
0.7%

Rudy Giuliani
8.3%

Mike Huckabee
2.3%

Duncan Hunter
1.1%

John McCain
6.7%

Ron Paul
69%

Mitt Romney
8%

Tom Tancredo
1.8%

Tommy Thompson
1.7%

Who was the most convincing candidate? * 41901 responses

Sam Brownback
0.9%

Jim Gilmore
0.7%

Rudy Giuliani
7.3%

Mike Huckabee
3%

Duncan Hunter
1%

John McCain
5.3%

Ron Paul
71%

Mitt Romney
7.7%

Tom Tancredo
2%

Tommy Thompson
1.7%

Who had the most rehearsed answers? * 41293 responses

Sam Brownback
2%

Jim Gilmore
1%

Rudy Giuliani
40%

Mike Huckabee
2.2%

Duncan Hunter
0.9%

John McCain
19%

Ron Paul
8.1%

Mitt Romney
23%

Tom Tancredo
1.3%

Tommy Thompson
2.7%

Who avoided the questions? * 40989 responses

Sam Brownback
2.7%

Jim Gilmore
1.6%

Rudy Giuliani
47%

Mike Huckabee
1.9%

Duncan Hunter
1.2%

John McCain
15%

Ron Paul
6.1%

Mitt Romney
21%

Tom Tancredo
1.7%

Tommy Thompson
2.7%

Who had the best one-liner? * 40533 responses

Sam Brownback
1.4%

Jim Gilmore
1.2%

Rudy Giuliani
13%

Mike Huckabee
6.2%

Duncan Hunter
1.7%

John McCain
7.3%

Ron Paul
53%

Mitt Romney
5.3%

Tom Tancredo
6.6%

Tommy Thompson
5%

[Pinkbell]

I don’t have anything against Huckabee. He is a good social conservative. He’s pro-life and believes in family values. While I differ with him in a couple areas, he still is my second choice behind Duncan Hunter.

[Pinkbell]

It looks like the Paulestinians have been doing their usual post debate poll spamming. You can’t get an accurate result that way.

[dforest]

Rooty had a terrible performance at the debate. He always brought up New York, ad nauseum.

he was awful.

[normy]

Giuliani won that debate with McCain a close second plain and simple. Huckabee answers questions like Bill Clinton, speaks for 20 minutes and says nothing.

I thought Mitt looked like a guy with no core and he smiled and laughed in odd places. I though he lost big time.

Hunter and Tancredo get asked questions only about the border so its hard to get a full picture of them as candidates.

Paul is embarrassing and Brownback is wimpy. Thompson looked really good on Leno and will be in the next debates so we will really be able to size him up.

No matter how bad people hate Giuliani and McCain, to say they didn't win just isn't right.

[Saundra Duffy]

I watched the debate. My guy did just fine. He seems to get low-blow punches but he handles himself with grace. Go, Mitt!

[alice_in_bubbaland]

Yes he did.

Ron Paul came off looking like “Crazy Jim from Brooklyn” if you ask me. Crazy Jim is a nutty caller who calls in to both Sean Hannity & Mark Levin shows on WABC.

[Stallone]

Delusional. Again.

[Et in Arcadia Ego]

Thanks for the stats, KDD. Very encouraging!

Here is Michael Kraft’s post-debate analysis from THE CHARLOTTE CONSERVATIVE. It is moderate and rather fair, I think:

http://www.charlotteconservative.com/index.php/2007/09/gop-debate-grades/

(Curious - - Are you KDD as in KDDI? I am an AU keitai user myself!)

[Rumierules]

You are right — Giuliani and McCain won.

Republicans have some real problems:

Giuliani seems to be the best leader. But he is a social liberal.

McCain is strong on the national defense, weak on immigration, CFR, and has a bad history of undermining his party.

Romney is an effetive manager and articulate guy but is a flip flopper.

Thompson seems to have frustrated many of his supporters and would be supporters. I still think there is hope for him though. Many are saying that his delayed entry has raised expectations so high that he can never meet them. Maybe. But it is possible that his delayed entry will mean little to substantial number of primary voters and he has almost put himself in a position of making a “comeback” with those who are following the early activity closely.

[GulfBreeze]

Yea... The Paul campaign shows once again they have the solid support of the best cheaters the internet has to offer.

[GulfBreeze]

Sure you can. Just throw ot all of Ron Paul’s fake percentages and calculate the rest as a percentage of what is left.

[iopscusa]

Well that certainly settles it, I always believe any MSNBC poll and if this poll says Ron Paul, that is enough for my vote! (sarc)

[bert]

Rudy won the debate.

Freepers should listen to what he said about what he actually did.

We will see if Fred comes on strong, but Rudy is going to be his only competition.

Hunter and Huckabee are both great but don’t have a real chance.

My guess is either FRED/MIKE or RUDY/MIKE ticket.

[normy]

I have not been one to jump on the Fred bandwagon, especially with many of his supporters on FR mocking other candidates instead of giving reasons to support him.

I watched him on Leno and started getting excited about his prospects. As I hear more about him and see him on the trail I could see myself supporting him.

I believe a McCain/Giuliani ticket would crush whatever the Dems could put together. I also believe a Thompson/Giuliani would do the same.