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Posted on 09/11/2007 10:42:19 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Having entered the GOP presidential race months after other top Republicans, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson faces a big challenge in building the grass-roots organizations vital to winning early states in the nominating calendar.
With time, money and skilled workers at a premium, Thompson’s campaign argues that the buzz generated by his candidacy will help offset the advantages enjoyed by the other Republican candidates, including those considered to be in the top tier — former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
“We have a strong base of support and it’s now just a question of capitalizing upon that by building the organization,” said Thompson spokesman Jeff Sadosky.
Analysts agree that Thompson’s prolonged "testing the waters" phase gained him widespread free media coverage that saved the campaign thousands in advertising.
As of this week, GOP presidential candidates are scheduled to face contests in eight states in January, but that could change if states continue to jockey for position by moving up the dates of their primaries or caucuses. The Republican National Committee (RNC) has threatened severe penalties for any state that sets its primary or caucus before Feb. 5, which might discourage any more changes.
So far, Thompson’s campaign is focusing on the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. After announcing his candidacy in Iowa on Thursday, Thompson kicked off a five-day tour that took him from the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus to New Hampshire on Saturday and Sunday and South Carolina on Monday.
The job of building the Thompson campaign at the grass roots has been given to Randy Enright, who last month was named national political director for the then-unofficial campaign. Enright has worked on campaigns for all three Bushs — President George W. Bush, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and President George H.W. Bush — and has extensive experience in Florida and Missouri.
“Randy has deep, deep experience nationwide in building campaign organizations that have been some of the most successful in history,” said Thompson spokesman Sadosky.
Iowa
The ground war is vital in the early states. Thompson faces a daunting situation in Iowa, where the caucus system requires precinct-level contacts and volunteers to help turn out the vote.
One problem Thompson faces with his late entry is finding people who know the process and the political terrain, said Peverill Squire, a professor of political science at the University of Iowa.
“All of the people who are well-acquainted with the intricacies of the caucus process have pretty much been scooped up by other candidates,” he said. “So it’s hard at this point to try to assemble a particularly good organization to try to turn people out on caucus night.”
Thompson’s campaign announced Thursday that it was bulking up its field organization in Iowa with five new staffers, including Robert Haus as executive director for Iowa and Andrew Dorr as Midwest policy director.
But Squire said: “At this point even tossing five people into that state is not a lot. You’ve got 99 counties and some 2,000 precincts, and so that’s an awful lot of work to leave yourself in a little time.”
And while Thompson announced a five-person team for the state of Iowa on Thursday, Romney on Friday announced the names of eight people for his leadership team for Linn County alone. That puts Thompson at a significant disadvantage, analysts said; although Thompson is not alone in trailing Romney’s infrastructure in Iowa and other early states.
“He’s the only one who’s really developed a sophisticated ground operation in Iowa at this point,” Whit Ayres, a GOP consultant, said of Romney.
The strength of Romney’s grass-roots campaign was demonstrated in last month’s straw poll in Ames, which he swept with a third of the vote. Giuliani did not compete in the contest and neither did Thompson, who was not yet an official candidate.
Arthur Sanders, a professor of political science at Drake University in Des Moines, said candidates have been on campus recruiting volunteers for weeks, while the newly announced Thompson campaign “is just now showing up.”
Thompson’s campaign has “got a major challenge,” Sanders said. “I don’t think it’s impossible, but I think that they’ve got a lot of work to do.”
New Hampshire
As in Iowa, Romney has built a significant organization in New Hampshire. Between the two states, his campaign has spent nearly $2 million in advertising, according to the New York Times political blog, which attributed the figures to the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which estimates advertising spending.
Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said candidates needed to spend between $5 million and $10 million to mount the kind of organization needed to win.
All told, hiring 150 to 200 people to staff several field offices “is not uncommon at all,” Smith said.
Romney’s deep pockets and massive expenditures have put him in a strong position in Iowa and New Hampshire. In the first six months of 2007, Romney spent $13.5 million out of $44.4 million raised on media nationwide, according to data from CQ Money Line. Giuliani, who raised $34.2 million in the first half of the year, spent $190,000 on media.
“They’ve obviously spent a lot more money than us,” Sadosky said of Thompson’s Republican competitors.
“That’s an advantage to us in that we haven’t had to spend that money, but it’s also a disadvantage that they’ve been out talking to voters a little bit longer than we have. ... But it’s all going to come down to whose message is able to carry the day, whose message is going to be resonating most completely with voters,” he said.
Thompson also may not have endeared himself to some New Hampshire voters after skipping last week’s Republican debate at the University of New Hampshire to announce his candidacy on NBC’s “The Tonight Show with Jay Leno.”
Vahrij Manoukian, chairman of the Republican Party for Hillsborough County, the state’s most populous county, said he is disappointed by Thompson’s decision not to participate in the debate. “He’s growing some support, but he should have been there Wednesday night,” Manoukian said.
Florida
While Romney may have the edge in Iowa and New Hampshire, Giuliani is running strongly in Florida, where state polls indicate he holds a steady lead over the other GOP candidates.
Republicans campaigning in Florida face two disadvantages, said Susan MacManus, a professor of government at the University of South Florida. First, the ongoing scuffle between the Democratic National Committee and the state legislature over the DNC’s threat to take away all of the state’s electoral votes has dominated media attention of the presidential election.
The other issue, MacManus said: It’s football season. “Politics is just not going to rattle many people’s cages for a while,” she said.
Supporters of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush are migrating to Romney’s field while Giuliani’s steady campaigning is giving him a strong position in what he expects to be one of his premier states. “And that leaves Thompson,” MacManus said.
Thompson pulled in early support from Rep. Adam H. Putnam of the 12th District, a party prodigy and the third-ranking Republican in the House.
However, Thompson’s presence in Florida is “not overwhelming — it’s probably underwhelming,” MacManus said. The lack of attention on the race means it is difficult to get party activists to functions, while 10 media markets and two dozen newspapers for the state means it is expensive terrain, she said.
“I think Florida Republicans, like Republicans elsewhere, are waiting to see how well he does in the polls, but it’s kind of a Catch-22 — you’ve got to be somewhere to create excitement and move up in the polls, but you can’t get excitement unless you’re up in the polls,” she said.
South Carolina
Some analysts argue that Thompson’s best shot may be in South Carolina, where his country-boy roots make him a comfortable choice for Palmetto state voters.
Thompson on Monday announced three people to head up his South Carolina organization: Dean Rice as manager for the state, Lance Williams as operations director and Walter Whetsell as in-state consultant.
Rice has ties to the candidate running back to Thompson’s 1994 Senate campaign and was campaign manager for Rep. John J. “Jimmy” Duncan Jr.’s successful 2006 re-election campaign in Tennessee. He also served as national field director of the Christian Coalition of America. Williams formerly was chief of staff for South Carolina Rep. J. Gresham Barrett and an undergraduate of Clemson University. Whetsell coordinated the direct mail program for South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford’s successful re-election campaign in 2006 and participated in South Dakota Sen. Jim DeMint’s successful primary and general election campaign in 2004.
As Thompson tries to peel away supporters from the other GOP contenders, he will be aided by their relative weaknesses in the state, said Republican consultant Chip Felkel of Greenville, S.C. Romney has not been able to break 15 percent in polls of South Carolina primary voters despite campaigning for nearly two years and spending $1 million in the state. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who like Thompson has the appeal of a regional son, doesn’t have the prominence and presence that Thompson commands. And while Giuliani may appeal to some South Carolina voters, he doesn’t have Thompson’s ace in the hole — his southern drawl.
That accent “goes a long, long way,” said Felkel. “We’re comfortable with him. He speaks our language. It’s like having a conversation on your front porch.”
Thompson already has made inroads in the state, garnering support from Barrett of South Carolina’s 3rd District to help him build a grass-roots organization upstate. Cyndi Mosteller, a former chairwoman of the Charleston County Republican Party who was a staunch supporter of Arizona Sen. John McCain in 2000, also has thrown her support behind Thompson.
Felkel said he fields calls daily from interested parties, but that Republicans shouldn’t expect South Carolina voters to be the same as voters in New Hampshire and Iowa. “We’re happy to be in the mix, but it’s football season. And all due respect — we’re not as enamored with ourselves to expect to be feted and courted,” he said.
He added, “It’s hot as the devil, it’s 95 degrees outside, and people are busy and so in terms of getting the greater public to focus on these candidates . . . I don’t think in this case for Thompson being, quote, late to the game is going to hurt him one bit.”
You can help, too!
And Frederalists, too!
Worst case for Fred, he finished 2nd Iowa and Florida and 1st in SC and 3rd in NH, which isn’t a bad start. Still lots of time and what Fred does or doesn’t have on the ground, he will more than make up for in the air.
Friends of Fred Thompson, Inc. PO Box 128349 Nashville, TN 37212-8349
In case anyone wants to send a check.
Thanks for the addy. (First) check will shortly be in the mail...
It is still five months to the first primary. As candidates fall by the wayside, talent will become available. McCain has lots of good people locked up. Where are they gonna go when Johnnie McQueeg finally wakes up and smells the coffee?
Fred’s got a severe uphill battle in the early states. The frontrunner candidates (that is, those who are paying attention to the early primary states - like Romney) have spent a great deal of time and money in those states. They’ve created the state and local level organizatiosn and done the groundwork already. Thompson has done little or none of that and he will be playing catch up until primary day. Millions of viewers on the Leno show doesn’t equate to the organization and groundwork necessary to win an election. Nothing against Fred...he might be able to do it. But it is going to be, as I said, an uphill battle.
Nobody said it was going to be easy.
But that does not mean it cannot be done.
In Columbia, SC:
FRED VETS, SIGN UP TODAY AT:
He’ll be leading all four comfortably in the polls by the first week in October. He’ll win all four primaries.
Fred has to get more exposure. The MSM folks will not touch this at all. Lots of TV talk shows, fireside chats, etc. Throw big time money for exposure time.
Oh, Fred will get out there. He knows what is at stake...
Boy did I get a laugh out of that one! He spends a bazillion dollars and has no competitors. That's grass-roots alright. Let's not mention Fred is the only candidate to be drafted by a real grass-roots effort.
The disaster for Thompson would be if Rudy wins the first 3 : Florida, Iowa and NH. (I think Romney’s support is worse than paper thin)... . Then , I’d think Thompson would be sunk.
hahahaha.
That’s exactly what I was thinking, in addition to, “grassroots? Is paying your own campaign 9 million dollars and inundating yourself on every tv screen in iowa and new hampshire really grassroots?”
Fred is the real grassroots candidate.
Its funny how often the word underwhelming turns up in discussions of Fred Thompson.
I can't see that happening at all. I can see Romney winning Iowa and New Hampshire with Rudy possibly taking Florida. That leaves a lot open. I also can't see a good Southerner closing the curtain and voting for a North Eastern liberal.
The chief word is underwhelming...underwhelming and folksy...folksy and underwhelming....
The two most common words are folksy and underwhelming... and lazy....
The three words are folksy, underwhelming, and lazy... and an utter lack of fire in the belly....
The four... no...
Amongst the words... Amongst our words... are such terms as folksy, underwhelming...
I'll come in again.
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